We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献
The primary occurrence of ruby in the Mogok area, northern Myanmar is exclusively found in marble along with spinel–forsterite-bearing marble and phlogopite–graphite marble. These marble units are enclosed within banded biotite–garnet–sillimanite–oligoclase gneisses. Samples of these marbles collected for C–O stable isotope analysis show two trends of δ13C–δ18O variation resulting most likely from fluid–rock interactions. Ruby-bearing marble and phlogopite–graphite marble follow a trend with coupled C–O depletion, whereas spinel–forsterite-bearing marble follows a δ18O depletion trend with relatively constant δ13C values. Ruby formation might have resulted from CO2-rich fluid–rock interaction, while spinel–forsterite-bearing marble was genetically related to CO2-poor fluid–rock interaction. Both fluids may have arisen from external sources. Based on graphite Raman spectral thermometry, the estimated temperature for phlogopite–graphite marble, and probably ruby-bearing marble, was lower than 607 °C, and for spinel–forsterite-bearing marble, lower than 710 °C. Contrasting C/O diffusion between graphite/ruby/spinel/forsterite and calcite, local variations of isotopic compositions of newly formed minerals as a result of non-pervasive fluid infiltration, and open-system isotopic disturbance during cooling may have affected C-/O-isotopic fractionations between minerals. The estimated high formation temperatures for ruby and spinel/forsterite imply that the parental fluids may have been related to nearby igneous intrusions and/or metamorphic processes. Whether these two types of fluid were genetically related is unclear based on the present data. 相似文献
This is a critical assessment of the paper by Oszczypko et al. (2004: Cretaceous Research 25, 89–113), in which they tried to prove a mid-Cretaceous age for the Szlachtowa (“black flysch”) and Opaleniec Formations, in the Pieniny Klippen Belt, West Carpathians, both of which had previously been shown to be of Jurassic age. We argue that the mid-Cretaceous age assignment is a misinterpretation, primarily resulting from their field samples having been collected from some Cretaceous lithostratigraphic units, tectonically associated with the Jurassic formations, and/or from tectonic contact-breccias involving Jurassic and Cretaceous strata. In addition, we suggest that they have overlooked a number of significant palaeontological papers, published since 1962, which record the presence of in situ ammonites, aptychi, belemnites, thin-shelled bivalves (Bositra), gryphaeids, foraminifera, and ostracod assemblages, all indicating a Jurassic (mainly Aalenian), and not a Cretaceous, age for the Szlachtowa Formation, and also the in situ Jurassic (Bajocian) ammonites and thin-shelled bivalves (Bositra), Bositra-microfacies, and age-diagnostic foraminiferal assemblages of the Opaleniec Formation.Our presentation here of recently published dinocyst data from well-preserved assemblages further supports the Jurassic ages for the Szlachtowa (“black flysch”) and Opaleniec Formations. 相似文献
The backward particle tracking method, an effective and powerful tool that can be used to delineate groundwater protection
zones, is presented. The theoretical background and insights on the applicability of this method are provided. Moreover, the
present work enriches the backward particle tracking method with an uncertainty analysis concerning the porosity values, applying
a Monte Carlo (MC) approach, coupled with the use of geographical information systems (GIS). As an application example, a
wellfield in the Komotini area, Greece, is investigated. The present study may serve as a potential guideline for wellfield
delineation, particularly in areas like Greece where lack of data related to the hydrogeological system is often a problem. 相似文献