基于循环孔洞扩张模型的X型圆管节点超低周疲劳寿命预测

海洋工程钢结构在服役过程中,受风、浪、流或地震等极端循环载荷的影响,易发生超低周疲劳断裂破坏,造成人员伤亡及财产损失,因此超低周疲劳断裂分析及寿命预测对于海工结构安全性评估至关重要。然而,现阶段基于累积损伤理论提出的多种超低周疲劳寿命预测模型无法对多尺度节点实现统一预测,造成了实际工程应用的不便。因此文中基于循环孔洞扩张模型开展X型圆管节点超低周疲劳寿命预测。首先,开发了基于循环孔洞扩张模型的VUSDFLD程序,实现ABAQUS与FORTRAN子程序联合应用,利用有限元分析验证循环孔洞扩张模型在X型圆管节点超低周疲劳断裂分析中的有效性;其次,根据多组X型圆管节点超低周疲劳断裂有限元分析结果,在宏观层面提出了一种基于Manson-Coffin公式的超低周疲劳寿命预测公式;最后,依据Miner理论,将适用于等幅加载的超低周疲劳寿命公式扩展至变幅加载情况,验证了多种节点尺寸下超低周疲劳公式的适用性,为工程应用提供了理论依据。     

Impacts of land use and land cover changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield determined using the SWAT model

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes strongly affect local hydrology and sediment yields.The current study focused on a basin in the Brazilian Amazon and had the following three objectives:(1) to perform an effective diagnosis of flow and sediment yield,(2) to evaluate the impacts of LULC changes over the last 40 years on the hydro-sedimentological variables,and (3) to investigate the impacts of the possible trends or breaking points in the flow,surface runoff,and sediment yield series.The Soi...     

基于灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计与实现

通过对灰色GM[1,1]模型的算法改进,将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫链结合,既可以发挥灰色系统预测精确的特点,又可以利用马尔科夫链对准确预测波动性数据的优势。在灰色马尔科夫链模型的算法基础上,采用Visual Studio 2005开发环境,进行灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计。最后利用南方某地区十年来土地利用数据进行系统验证,结果表明,灰色马尔科夫链模型能很大地提高预测的精度和效果,符合实际要求。     

Spatio-temporal suspended sediment fingerprinting under different land management practices

Understanding spatio-temporal suspended sediment dynamics is more important in large watersheds due to the decisive role of local source apportionment in sediment transport and yield. The Talar River with a large mountainous watershed in northern Iran, which plays a vital role in water supply for agriculture and drinking, recently has faced quality degradation. The current study explores the relative contribution of suspended sediment sources using geochemical tracers and fingerprinting techniqu...     

A Time-Transformed Leapfrog Scheme

We present a time-transformed leapfrog scheme combined with the extrapolation method to construct an integrator for orbits in N-body systems with large mass ratios. The basic idea can be used to transform any second-order differential equation into a form which may allow more efficient numerical integration. When applied to gravitating few-body systems this formulation permits extremely close two-body encounters to be considered without significant loss of accuracy. The new scheme has been implemented in a direct N-body code for simulations of super-massive binaries in galactic nuclei. In this context relativistic effects may also be included.     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

1) I. A. H. S. / A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A simple method is used to study the response of runoff in the Sahel to climate change. The statistical characteristics of rainfall are calculated over the western part of the Sahel for the period 1961–1990, using the BADOPLU network. Daily rainfall is simulated using a Markov process with Weibull distribution for rainfall depths. Runoff is modelled using a conceptual SCS model and the curve numbers are calculated for West Africa. Climate change is provided by simulations using the Arpège GCM (Scenario A1B), and a perturbation method is used on the parameters which describe the rainfall. Changes in rainfall are assumed to occur through increases in frequency, not intensity. Using Arpège, runoff is mainly found to increase, in depth and in number of events, by the end of the 21st century. Changes in evaporation and land use are not included in the analysis. The impact of this 21st century potential climate change (rainfall) on the runoff is found to be of the same magnitude as the impact of changes in land use.     

Effect of non-linear soil deformation on the interaction among energy piles

This study investigates the effect of non-linear soil deformation on the displacement interaction among energy piles. The work is based on interaction factor analyses of full-scale pile group tests, whose results are compared with experimental evidence. The results presented highlight the tendency of interaction factor analyses that ignore non-linear soil deformation to overestimate the interaction and the displacement of energy pile groups. This outcome, in accordance with previous studies for conventional pile groups subjected to mechanical loads, may be considered in the analysis and design of energy pile groups subjected to thermal (and mechanical) loads through the interaction factor method.     

Use of terrestrial photogrammetry for monitoring and measuring bank erosion

This paper examines the use of terrestrial photogrammetry as a technique for measuring bank erosion in a rapidly changing fluvial environment. It has been recognized that there are a number of advantages when applying photogrammetric techniques to geomorphological situations. In this study the enhancement of spatial sampling combined with the ability to capture additional information, such as soil moisture, on film, is of particular importance in enabling the identification of specific processes involved in bank erosion as well as detailed volumetric analysis of losses. Metric terrestrial photography was taken of the river bank on several dates, and data were abstracted by the use of analytical photogrammetry. This enabled the generation of digital terrain models from which morphological and volumetric changes could be assessed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deposition of trace substances via cloud interception on a coniferous forest at Kleiner Feldberg

A resistance model to calculate the deposition of cloud droplets on a coniferous forest and some improved parameterizations of the indispensable input parameters are described. The deposition model is adapted to the coniferous forest at the Kleiner Feldberg site and verified by the data of a drip water monitoring station below the forest canopy. The measurements of liqud water content, wind speed and trace substance compounds in cloud water of the Ground-based Cloud Experiment (GCE) at Kleiner Feldberg in 1990 are used to calculate the cloud water deposition fluxes and the deposition of trace substances via cloud water interception. The calculated deposition of trace substances via cloud water interceptions is three to six times higher than via rain during the experiment. On a long term data basis the yearly amount of cloud water deposition is 180 mm year^–1 at Kleiner Feldberg site (840 m a.s.l.) while the precipitation amount is 1030 mm year^–1. Due to higher trace substance concentrations in cloud water compared to rain the ionic deposition via cloud water interception and via precipitation were assessed to be of comparable magnitude.