Nonstationarity and clustering of flood characteristics and relations with the climate indices in the Poyang Lake basin,China

The magnitude, occurrence rate and occurrence timing of floods in the Poyang Lake basin were analysed. The flood series were acquired by annual and seasonal maximum flow (AMF) sampling and peaks-over-threshold (POT) sampling. Nonstationarity and uncertainty were analysed using kernel density estimation and the bootstrap resampling methods. Using the relationships between flood indices and climate indices, i.e. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the potential causes of flooding were investigated. The results indicate that (1) the magnitudes of annual and seasonal AMF- and POT-based sampled floods generally exhibit an increasing tendency; (2) the highest occurrence rates of floods identified were during the 1990s, when the flood-affected crop area, flood-damaged crop area and crop failure area reached the highest levels; and (3) ENSO and IOD are the major climate indices that significantly correlate with the magnitude and frequency of floods of the following year.

EDITOR A. Castellarin ASSOCIATE EDITOR T. Kjeldsen     

Seismic-impedance inversion with fuzzy clustering constraints: an example from the Carlin Gold District,Nevada, USA

The seismic reflection method provides high-resolution data that are especially useful for discovering mineral deposits under deep cover. A hindrance to the wider adoption of the seismic reflection method in mineral exploration is that the data are often interpreted differently and independently of other geophysical data unless common earth models are used to link the methods during geological interpretation. Model-based inversion of post-stack seismic data allows rock units with common petrophysical properties to be identified and permits increased bandwidth to enhance the spatial resolution of the acoustic-impedance model. However, as seismic reflection data are naturally bandlimited, any inversion scheme depends upon an initial model, and must deal with non-unique solutions for the inversion. Both issues can be largely overcome by using constraints and integrating prior information. We exploit the abilities of fuzzy c-means clustering to constrain and to include prior information in the inversion. The use of a clustering constraint for petrophysical values pushes the inversion process to select models that are primarily composed of several discrete rock units and the fuzzy c-means algorithm allows some properties to overlap by varying degrees. Imposing the fuzzy clustering techniques in the inversion process allows solutions that are similar to the natural geologic patterns that often have a few rock units represented by distinct combinations of petrophysical characteristics. Our tests on synthetic models, with clear and distinct boundaries, show that our methodology effectively recovers the true model. Accurate model recovery can be obtained even when the data are highly contaminated by random noise, where the initial model is homogeneous, or there is minimal prior petrophysical information available. We demonstrate the abilities of fuzzy c-means clustering to constrain and to include prior information in the acoustic-impedance inversion of a challenging magnetotelluric/seismic data set from the Carlin Gold District, USA. Using fuzzy c-means guided inversion of magnetotelluric data to create a starting model for acoustic-impedance proved important in obtaining the best result. Our inversion results correlate with borehole data and provided a better basis for geological interpretation than the seismic reflection images alone. Low values of the acoustic impedance in the basement rocks were shown to be prospective by geochemical analysis of rock cores, as would be predicted for later gold mineralization in weak, decalcified rocks.     

太湖梅梁湾沉积岩芯元素地球化学记录的多元统计分析

通过沉积岩芯元素含量垂直分布和富集因子分析,结合多元统计方法如系统聚类和模糊聚类分析,研究了太湖梅梁湾沉积岩芯元素地球化学记录的湖泊环境演化过程.以系统聚类分析和模糊聚类分析为基础,将梅梁湾地球化学记录的环境过程划分为如下几个层段:0-6cm为人类活动强烈干扰的阶段,25-50cm和55-72cm层段都是自然过程的表现,反映了流域物源的影响,而两层段元素记录的差异反映了不同自然作用驱动下的湖泊环境变化;6-25cm和50-55cm层段则是不同环境特征的过渡阶段,因此,综合应用多元统计方法可以更直观更精确地量化影响湖泊环境的因素,有助于恢复湖泊环境历史演化过程.     

北京市多尺度中心特征识别与群聚模式发现

城市多中心的研究是揭开城市系统复杂空间结构的重要研究内容,然而受传统调查数据时空精度的局限,现有研究缺乏足够细致的实证分析。LBS服务的广泛应用为高效、实时、微观地刻画个体和城市之间的空间活动提供了充足的信息,使得对城市多中心的微观量化机制的研究成为可能。基于此原因,本文结合兴趣点数据以及微博签到数据和出租车GPS轨迹数据对北京市五环内的不同尺度、不同社会功能的城市中心进行了识别,并对其居民行为的群聚模式进行了分析。结果表明,北京市五环内包括4个市级中心,16个区级中心以及45个街道级中心。市级中心包括海淀科教中心,西单休闲中心,北京文化中心和国贸金融中心4大中心;区级中心主要包括文娱中心、商业中心、教育中心以及交通中心4类中心;街道级中心除了区级的四类中心外,还包括行政中心、购物中心、商住中心等9类中心。不同中心在同一时段呈现相似的群聚模式,其中工作日城市不同尺度中心的群聚模式持续时间较长,群聚密度较大,主要以通勤和饮食为主;非工作日城市不同尺度中心的群聚模式相对较分散,持续时间较短,主要以休闲娱乐为主。     

全球海洋初级生产力时空异常变化对ENSO事件的响应

海洋初级生产力在海洋环境要素的驱动下,在不同海域呈现出不同的时空变化特征,这种时空演变特征在不同的ENSO事件类型下差异更为显著。本文基于1998年1月至2017年12月全球海洋初级生产力的卫星遥感数据集,通过改进海洋时空双约束聚类挖掘方法,挖掘了近20年海洋初级生产力的时空聚簇模式,并从时空分布和空间移动2个方面对比分析了海洋初级生产力时空演变簇与ENSO（El Niño-Southern Oscillation）事件之间的关系。结果表明：① 在EP（Eastern-Pacific）型El Niño事件期间,海洋初级生产力异常低值时空簇主要分布在赤道太平洋东部或中东部海域,异常高值时空簇主要分布在西太平洋和南太平洋中部海域;在CP（Central-Pacific）型El Niño事件期间,异常低值时空簇分布在太平洋中部,而异常高值时空簇分布在南太平洋与西太平洋海域;② 在EP型La Niña事件期间,赤道太平洋中部及东部、赤道大西洋与印度洋海域出现异常高值时空簇,南太平洋中东部海域出现异常低值时空簇;在CP型La Niña事件期间,赤道太平洋中部出现异常高值时空簇;南太平洋中西部海域出现异常低值时空簇;③ 发生在赤道太平洋的海洋初级生产力时空演变簇,在EP型ENSO事件期间具有东移特征,而在CP型ENSO事件期间,时空演变簇在赤道太平洋中部海域产生并消亡;④ ENSO事件中海洋初级生产力时空演变簇面积与MEI具有较强相关性。     

一种基于空间-拓扑结构相似性的复杂轨迹聚类算法

复杂的面状空间实体如海洋涡旋、环流和降雨过程在运动过程中会产生更复杂的轨迹,即具有分支结构的复杂轨迹。为了挖掘这类复杂轨迹的运动模式特征,本文从复杂轨迹的拓扑结构和空间特征出发,创新性地提出复杂轨迹的空间-拓扑结构相似性度量算法（Spatial-Topological Similarity Measurement, STSM）,该算法是基于图同构算法VF2改进的。首先STSM算法将复杂轨迹用带有节点和边的图结构表达,并将空间信息融入图结构的节点属性中,通过匹配复杂轨迹之间所有最大公共子结构,找到匹配结构中节点之间一一对应的关系,利用加权的欧式距离计算复杂轨迹匹配结构中点对之间的空间距离。然后,基于STSM相似性算法进行层次聚类分析,旨在发现复杂轨迹之间相似的拓扑结构在空间上的聚集模式。最后,利用1993-2016年长时间序列的中国南海冷涡复杂轨迹验证方法的有效性,并对比分析复杂轨迹拓扑结构相似性算法CSM。结果表明：单纯用拓扑结构相似性算法CSM进行聚类分析,不能充分挖掘空间的聚集模式,因为不同空间位置也存在拓扑结构相似的轨迹。而本文提出的STSM算法将南海冷涡复杂轨迹分为5类,第一类分布在南海北部、第二类分布在南海中部、其他三类交错在南海南部。这种聚集模式在一定程度上反映了冷涡的生成和演化过程在南海北部、中部、南部的差异性,同时也表明了冷涡移动在南海南部存在更为复杂的异质性。因此,本文提出的方法可以有效地从复杂轨迹数据中发现其演化过程的潜在聚集模式,为认识这类复杂动态现象的时空演化特征提供了一种新的方法。     

利用导航大数据挖掘城市热点区域关联性

导航大数据是大量与导航相关且具有泛在导航、定位、授时特征的数据集合。城市环境的特性影响居民的出行活动,而居民出行活动中产生的导航大数据则蕴含了城市环境的时空信息。热点区域空间分布以及热点区域之间的关联性特征是城市环境时空特性的重要组成部分,由客观的环境现状和主观的人为活动造成。通过挖掘导航大数据可以揭示这些特征。本文提出了利用导航大数据的城市热点区域关联性挖掘方法。首先,通过对居民出行的起点和终点坐标进行空间聚类,挖掘城市中的热点区域,并依据点的分布特点对城市热点区域进行离散化;然后,利用基于谱聚类和蚁群算法的方法分析居民出行特征,揭示城市中热点区域之间存在的关联性。本文提出的方法能够充分利用导航大数据对城市动态的感知能力。以上海市2007年2月20日的出租车轨迹数据为例进行分析,结果表明：利用导航大数据分析城市热点区域之间的关联性,可以得到具有紧密关联性的热点区域的空间分布特征;上海市居民出行活动频繁的热点区域被划分为15个内部紧密关联的子图,形成该分布特征的内在机制以及居民流通规律与上海市的土地资源利用及道路交通建设现状密切相关。分析方法和结果可为合理的城市功能区域规划,智慧城市建设等提供决策支持和参考信息。     

基于K均值聚类EEMD的CORS高程时间序列信号分析方法

针对传统EEMD进行信号分解时信噪比低和部分模态混叠的问题,提出基于K均值聚类的CORS高程时间序列改进分析方法。通过添加正负白噪声的EEMD提高信号分解信噪比,基于K均值聚类方法对EEMD迭代过程中分解的各个IMF分量进行聚类分析。实验结果表明,该方法提高信噪比3%以上,基于正交指数的分解精度提高26%以上,聚类结果能够解决IMF中近似的0.5 a、1 a、2 a周期信号的模态混叠问题。     

新型城镇化视角下县域城镇化时空格局及聚集特征——以浙江省为例

基于新型城镇化特征及内涵,选取人口、经济、社会、空间、居民生活质量、城乡统筹发展和创新发展7个因素26项指标构建浙江省县域新型城镇化水平评价体系,运用模糊综合评价法计算了该省70个县域行政单元2007—2016年新型城镇化水平。在此基础上,采用ArcGIS对计算结果进行可视化表达和分析,并采用系统聚类法进行了验证。结果表明：（1）浙江省县域新型城镇化水平在时间上总体呈缓慢上升趋势,在空间上总体呈现“倒三角”特征;（2）形成三个高水平区域中心和两个低水平区域中心,高水平区域中心对周边区域带动辐射效应明显;传统城镇化指标对新型城镇化水平贡献较大,但城乡统筹发展和创新发展的贡献逐年上升;（3）新型城镇化水平较高区域得益于其创新发展,其城乡统筹发展和社会城镇化相较其他区域表现突出。     

Detecting clusters over intercity transportation networks using K-shortest paths and hierarchical clustering: a case study of mainland China

Intercity transportation infrastructures and services determine the depth and breadth of the spatial interactions among cities within an urban agglomeration, and have profound impacts on the spatial structure of the urban agglomeration. To evaluate whether the public intercity ground transportation infrastructures and services (i.e. passenger trains and long-distance buses) can support the integration and development of urban agglomerations, we propose a method for ‘transportation cluster’ detection (TCD), which has three unique features: (1) the K-shortest paths are used to quantify the proximity between cities, which is more in line with people’s travel behaviors; (2) a dendrogram is obtained through hierarchical clustering to reveal the structural hierarchies of transportation clusters; and (3) the integration of geo-modularity and hierarchical clustering assures high strength of division of transportation networks. The proposed TCD method was applied to the network of passenger trains, the network of long-distance buses, and the combined network of both in mainland China, respectively. By comparing the resultant transportation clusters with the urban agglomerations delineated by the Chinese government, cities that have weak transportation connections with other cities within an urban agglomeration were identified, and such findings could help devise transportation planning to better support the integrated development of urban agglomerations.