基于家庭的购物行为时、空间 决策模型及其应用

基于家庭的购物行为决策的概念模型,利用2007年北京市活动日志调查的第一手数据,建立购物出发时间决策和购物目的地决策的条件Logit模型,并探讨其在相关政策评估和预测上的应用。结果发现:家庭内部相互作用和决策层面要素对购物时、空间决策的影响比较显著;早晚高峰出行的人群具有不同的社会经济属性和购物行为属性;居民休息日的购物活动集中在离家6km以内或者高密度的商业中心;影响购物目的地选择的因素更多是购物地距离,而非商业密度。通过模拟发现,土地混合利用的政策可能会增加高峰期的交通拥挤程度,而商业设施分散布局可能更有利于城市交通状况的改善和居民日常生活质量的提升。     

基坑支护方案的灰色模糊可变决策模型

针对影响基坑支护方案决策因素所具有的不确定性、模糊性以及影响因素与评价指标间的相互关联性特点,基于灰色理论和模糊数学理论,建立了基坑支护方案的灰色模糊可变决策模型。应用基于贴近度最大的组合赋权方法确定评价指标权重,并用集值统计法对定性指标进行量化,以解决影响模型决策结果准确程度的关键问题。工程实例分析表明,采用该模型更为科学、有效,易于实现程序化。更重要的是,该方法能够提高优选决策的合理性和可信度,为决策者提供有力的参考,具有一定推广和应用价值。     

基于A-star算法的矿井事故救援研究

针对井下不同形状巷道几何空间特征,确立以空间点、线、面为基本图元,以巷道中心线作为三维模型构建的基础框架,建立巷道三维模型。采用启发式路径搜索A-star算法,实现了应急救援路线智能快速选择。实践证明,该方法对于矿井事故定位和救援具有一定的实用性。     

电子政务空间辅助决策综合数据管理研究与实践

本文通过对电子政务数据特点和处理要求的分析,提出了电子政务空间辅助决策综合数据模型。在此基础上,作者完成了电子政务空间辅助决策综合数据管理方法研究与实践。实现了多种类型数据的管理,扩展并完善了基于空间数据的电子政务应用数据管理的内容和技术。     

内蒙古地区决策气象服务满意度评价体系设计

文章依据内蒙古地区省级决策气象服务满意度评价工作的现状,提出决策气象服务满意度评价体系的一种设计方法,拟对今后提高决策气象服务用户满意度提供依据。     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

地面人影作业决策指挥系统建设的技术问题探讨

为做好地面人工影响天气决策指挥系统的研究和开发,提出各级人影办的职责和作业流程。在市级人影办指挥地面作业的体制内,省级人影办主要做好潜势预报和作业预警等项工作;市级人影办建立以GIS、雷达图像、作业点位置叠加为基础,作业指标为核心,高炮、火箭射程计算作业参数为关键,利用GPRS通信完成指挥中心到作业点的指令下达任务;县级人影办主要负责作业监测、部分作业点的指挥、作业和灾情信息上报,作业点管理等项工作。该方案可以提高形成作业指令的科学性和指令下达速度,使其进入业务应用。     

影视营销对游客旅游决策影响实证分析——以张家界借力《阿凡达》营销为例

以游客旅游决策过程和影视营销基本原理为基础,结合影视营销影响游客旅游决策机理,构建了影视营销对游客旅游决策影响模型和影响效果测评指标体系。以张家界借力《阿凡达》营销为例,研究发现:影视营销对激发游客旅游需要和动机、收集与评价信息以及确定旅游目的地影响效果一般,对游客旅游体验、游后评价、获取影视与旅游目的地相关信息影响效果比较好;区域、市场生命周期和年龄等因素对影视营销影响游客决策效果差异显著。     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.