Managing Technological and Financial Uncertainty: A Decision Science Approach for Strategic Drilling Decisions

This paper presents a framework to improve the quality of investment decisions in petroleum. The model presented enables the decision-maker to explicitly consider two major objectives when evaluating new petroleum opportunities—financial and technological gain. We utilize MultiAttribute Utility Theory (MAUT) to consider simultaneously the technological challenges of petroleum exploration into the capital budgeting process of an exploration and production firm. The MAUT methodology presented in this work demonstrates that in some mature areas the advantages to exploration are restricted further only to financial gain, based upon the present economic potential of the basin. On the other hand, other seemingly less attractive areas, such as deep horizons in deep-water basins, may represent attractive targets for new exploration as a result of the interaction of financial gain and technological advancement. This advantage reflects the technological gain as a key factor for future operations for oil discoveries in areas with big geological potential. The model presented in this work enables the decision-maker to consider explicitly the risk and rewards associated with both financial and technological payoffs, the decision-maker's tolerance for those types of risks, and the relative importance of each of those objectives in the context of ongoing petroleum exploration decisions.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Development and Environment in Peninsular Malaysia . S. Robert Aiken, Colin H. Leigh, Thomas R. Leinbach, Michael R. Moss. The Rural-Urban Fringe: Canadian Perspectives . Ken B. Beesley and Lorne H. Russwurm, eds. Women and Development . Lourdes Benería, ed. The Border that Joins: Mexican Migrants and U.S. Responsibility . Peter G. Brown and Henry Shue, eds. Cities of the World: World Regional Urban Development . Stanley D. Brunn and Jack L. Williams, eds. Time Resources, Society, and Ecology: On the Capacity for Human Interaction in Space and Time (Vol. I, Preindustrial Societies). Tommy Carlstein. Urban Geography . David Clark. Spanish City Planning in North America . Dora P. Crouch, Daniel J. Garr, and Axel I. Mundigo. Not On Our Street: Community Attitudes to Mental Health Care . M. J. Dear and S. M. Taylor Unequal growth: Urban and Regional Employment Change in the U.K. Stephen Fothergill and Graham Gudgin. Agricultural Land in an Urban Society . Owen J. Furuseth and John T. Pierce. The Petroleum Industry in Oil-Importing Developing Countries . Fariborz Ghadar. Historical Understanding in Geography, An Idealist Approach . Leonard Guelke. Regional Planning in Europe . R. Hudson and J. R. Lewis, eds. Remote Sensing for Resource Management . Chris J. Johannsen and James L. Sanders, eds. Geography and The State . R. J. Johnston. Texas Graveyards: a Cultural Legacy . Tlrry G. Jordan. The Politics of Location: An Introduction . Andrew Kirby. A Social Geography of the City . David Ley. Energy and the Future . Douglas MacLean and Peter Brown, eds. The Natural Environment of Newfoundland Past and Present . A. G. Macpherson and J. B. Macpherson, eds. Tourism: Economic, Physical and Social Impacts . Alister Mathieson and Geoffrey Wall. Railroads and Land Grant Policy: A Study in Government Intervention . Lloyd J. Mercer. Progress in Rural Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Progress in Urban Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Models of Spatial Inequality: Settlement Patterns in Historical Archaeology . Robert Paynter. Natural Hazard Risk Assessment and Public Policy, Anticipating the Unexpected . William J. Petak and Arthur A. Atkisson. The Nature of Geomorphology . Alistair F. Pitty. Regional Conflict and National Policy . Kent A. Price Women and Spatial Change: Learning Resources for Social Science Courses . Arlene C. Rengert and Janice J. Monk, eds. Urban and Regional Analysis for Development Planning . Richard Rhoda. Rivers: Form and Process in Alluvial Channels . Keith Richards. This Remarkable Continent: An Atlas of United States and Canadian Society and Culture . John F. Rooney, Jr., Wilbur Zelinsky, and Dean R. Louder, gen. eds. The Origins of Open-Field Agriculture . Trevor Rowley, ed. Residential Location Determinants of the Older Population . Gundars Rudzitis. Borderland Sourcebook: A Guide to the Literature on Northern Mexico and the American Southwest . Ellwyn R. Stoddard, Richard L. Nostrand, and Jonathan P. West, eds. Arctic and Antarctic . David Sugden. Tall Timbers Ecology and Management Conference, February 22–24, 1979, Proceedings No. 16 . Graphic Communication and Design in Contemporary Cartography (Progress in Contemporary Cartography , Vol. II). D. R. Fraser Taylor, ed. Living with Energy Shortfall: A Future for American Towns and Cities . Jon Van Til. The United States: Habitation of Hope . J. Wreford Watson. Air Photo Interpretation for Archaeologists . D. R. Wilson. Urban and Rural Change in West Germany . Trevor Wild, ed. Population and Resources . Harry Robinson.     

地震应急指挥管理信息系统的探讨

地震应急指挥技术系统是防震减灾建设的核心内容，我国的研究和建设尚处于初级阶段。因此地震应急指挥管理信息系统的关键构成、设计和实现还有许多方面有待进一步研究和探讨。根据所从事的项目建设过程，对地震应急指挥技术系统几个方面的内容进行了阐述，并在此基础上开展了国务院抗震救灾指挥部技术系统建设一期工作。     

The Elements of Applied Avalanche Forecasting,Part II: The Physical Issues and the Rules of Applied Avalanche Forecasting

This paper (Part II) constitutes the second of a two part series todefine the seven elements of avalanche forecasting. Part I contains the first four elements which are neededto present the human issues. This paper contains the last three elements which deal mostly with thephysical issues and their use in the decision-making process. Some basic rules of applied avalancheforecasting are included here, for the first time, to illustrate physically based principleswhich are used in applied avalanche forecasting and their link to data analysis and decisions.Since the seven elements of applied avalanche forecasting are strongly connected, the reader should consultPart I (this journal issue) as a prelude to the present paper. Part II contains sections about dataand information, scale issues in time and space, decision making and errors and physical rules ofapplied forecasting. Since all seven elements of applied avalanche forecasting are connected, Part II does not stand alone.     

基于灰色局势决策规则的元胞自动机城市扩展模型

对标准的元胞自动机模型的元胞含义、规则定义等进行了扩展，探讨了元胞自动机模型与多目标灰色局势决策、层次分析方法有机结合。构建基于灰色局势决策、层次分析法与元胞自动机的城市空间动态扩展模型，并以海南省琼海市为例进行了验证。     

Optimal decision-making model of spatial sampling for survey of China’s land with remotely sensed data

For a long term,in the survey of the country land areas,how to balance the conflicts between survey cost and result accuracy,or in other words,how to acquire the highest accuracy within the capital limit or vice verse,is a major problem that couldn’t have well been solved[1].Spatial sampling,aiming this,is the preferable option and the important and the first stepin the survey of geo-analysis,including the survey of the country land resource as well in that whether the sampling scheme is good …     

实物期权法在油气勘探开发决策中的应用

在分析传统决策方法,即净现值(NPV)法所存在缺陷的基础上,论述了实物期权法的原理及其适用性.油气勘探开发项目投资大、周期长、风险高,具有典型的期权特征,传统的净现值法由于没有考虑期权的存在而无法评估油气勘探开发项目的真实价值.实例证明实物期权法由于包含了各种期权价值而更适用于油气勘探开发项目的评估,有利于油气勘探开发项目的正确投资决策.     

Developing interactive geospatial holograms for spatial decision-making

Spatial decision-making in time-critical situations requires effective and usable two-dimensional and three-dimensional (3D) cartographic products. Holographic displays allow decision makers to work with auto-stereoscopic maps without the hassle of interacting with complex user interfaces or additional vision hardware. Holographic production processes have advanced greatly in a short period and now support timely and full integration of digital 3D models in geospatial holograms. George Mason University’s and Zebra Imaging’s research on interactive holographic motion displays showcases the leadership in moving cartography and geovisualization research in the US forward. In close cooperation with academic researchers, decision makers, and domain experts, the usability and usefulness of these cartographic products is tested and design guidelines for effective geospatial holograms are being developed.     

宁夏网络一体化警用地理信息系统平台的研究与设计

结合宁夏警用地理信息系统的设计方案和国内外警用地理信息系统的建设经验,提出三级一体化接警、分区处警、信息共享的“三台合一”接处警构建模式,阐述了系统的五大特色功能,可拓宽网络化功能在警用地理信息系统建设中的应用。     

基于MAS的农户土地利用模型构建与模拟——以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例

Multi-Agent System(简称MAS)给进行多主体参与的LUCC研究提供一个概念性框架.本文试图通过对多主体决策的模拟,来探讨MAS在微观层面土地利用变化过程中的应用,揭示农户土地利用决策变化的机制.首先,简要说明MAS在土地利用变化模拟中的研究进展和背景:然后,基于B、D、I的决策结构.建立基于MAS的农户土地利用框架;再次,以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例进行研究:最后.探讨了MAS模型在微观层面模拟LUCC的潜力与不足.研究表明:①利用可清晰地表达决策产生过程的B、D、I决策框架,构建微观个体(农户)的土地利用决策模型:②利用连续函数,构建同类农户间的相互作用模型;③构建市场对农户决策的影响模型.定量分析市场对农户最终土地利用决策的影响,厘定市场、同类农户间相互作用对其土地利用决策的影响:④构建的基于MAS的农户土地利用决策模型为从微观视角研究土地利用变化提供了新的方法.同时.也为进一步探索宏观土地利用变化与微观土地利用决策间的互动机理积累理论与实践的经验.还需要进一步研究和探讨的问题包括:①决策的尺度变化问题,即单个农户决策与群体农户决策之间的转化问题;②探索在更长时间里进行农户土地利用决策研究的方法.以期在大量的土地利用资料与有限时间决策之间找到沟通的桥梁:③进一步探讨不同农户间相互作用的定量方法和模型,充实农户间相互作用的研究.