覆膜旱作水稻作物系数试验研究

分析了覆膜旱作水稻需水量试验资料,得出覆膜旱作水稻各生育阶段综合作物系数。综合考虑了覆膜旱作技术对水稻生理生态的影响,提出了涵盖水稻冠层叶面积指数、天顶角绿叶覆盖串、含遮阴地表植被有效覆盖串及移栽后天数等稻株生长影响因素等综合作物系数计算公式。计算结果与实测值较吻合,经F检验具有极显着性水平,可以用于覆膜旱作水稻实际蒸发蒸腾量的计算。     

绿洲农田作物的显热和潜热输送

本文根据波文比－能量平衡法，利用观测资料计算了荒漠－绿洲交界处绿洲农田作物（棉花、水稻）的显热和潜热，并进行了分析和比较。     

微地貌对川中丘陵区紫色土和作物的影响

由紫色砂泥岩组成的川中丘陵区,微地貌是影响紫色土的光热水肥及其动态的重要因素,对土壤性质和作物产量的影响明显.     

旱地农田水分收支与开发对策

根据农田水分平衡的研究结果，将产量分析扩大到所有作物，从而得出旱地喜水作物与农田水分收支的关系最密切，而耐旱作物稍差，其它作物居中，最后结合经济物价模式提出开发对策。     

A Modeling Study of Climate Change and Its Implication for Agriculture in China Part II: The Implication of Climate Change for Agriculture in China

The potential CO2-induced impacts on the geographical shifts of wheat growth zones in China were studied from seven GCMs outputs. The wheat growth regions may move northward and westward under the condition of a doubling CO2 climate. The wheat cultivation features and variety types may also assume significant changes. Climatic warming would have a positive influence in Northeast China, but high temperature stress may be produced in some regions of central and southern China. Higher mean air temperatures during wheat growth, particularly during the reproductive stages, may increase the need for earlier-maturing and more heat-tolerant cultivars.     

Spatio-temporal Characteristics of the Extreme Climate Events and Their Potential Effects on Crop Yield in Ethiopia

Extreme climate events exhibit an increasing spatio-temporal trend globally, and the increasing intensity and frequency may have severe impacts on the human society and natural ecosystems. This study analyzed the extreme temperature and precipitation variability from 1956 to 2016, and evaluated their potential effects on crop yield in Ethiopia. Relative extreme temperature indices exhibited a decreasing trend with low-temperature events, but a significantly upward trend with extreme high temperature events. The frequency of annual warm nights increased to a greater degree than that of cold days. The total annual wet-day precipitation decreased significantly at a rate of -46 mm/decade. Further, the succession of dry days gradually increased by 5.6 day/decade, while an opposite trend of wet days was found with a decline of 1.4 day/ decade. The correlation between annual precipitation and crop production was 0.422, indicating that extreme precipitation indices may have higher explanatory power than extreme temperature indices in the crop yield variations. Moreover, the extreme climate changes have induced significant adverse impacts on crops yield particularly in Ethiopia where no proper adaptation measures have been implemented.     

基于CMIP5模式的黑河流域潜在蒸散量预估

蒸散发是干旱内陆河流域水资源的主要耗散途径。预估黑河流域未来潜在蒸散量（ET₀）可为气候变化条件下流域水资源的优化管理提供基础数据支撑。使用1960—2014年黑河流域气象数据,采用FAO-56Penman-Monteith公式计算流域潜在蒸散量;基于同期NCEP（美国环境预报中心）再分析资料及2006—2100年CMIP5中CNRM-CM5模式的RCP4.5、RCP8.5路径预测数据,经统计降尺度模拟与偏差校正,预估了流域未来潜在蒸散量;通过旋转经验正交函数将流域各划分为3个子区,进行子区及全流域Mann-Kendall未来趋势分析。结果显示：（1）NCEP再分析资料与流域潜在蒸散量建立的逐步回归降尺度模型模拟效果好,经CNRM-CM5模式模拟及偏差校正,适宜于预估黑河流域未来潜在蒸散量。（2）预估RCP4.5路径流域2021—2050年、2071—2100年年均潜在蒸散量较1971—2000年分别增加3.49%、6.11%,RCP8.5路径分别增加4.64%、10.07%,RCP8.5路径增幅高于RCP4.5路径。（3）利用旋转经验正交函数可将两种路径流域未来蒸散量划分为3个子区,RCP4.5、RCP8.5路径黑河流域Ⅰ区潜在蒸散量各为不显著、显著的下降趋势,两种路径下Ⅱ区、Ⅲ区及全流域均为显著上升趋势。     

Analyzing the impact of thermal stress on vegetation health and agricultural drought – a case study from Gujarat,India

Although poor precipitation due to delayed arrival and/or early retreat of the southwest monsoon is considered the chief architect of drought in India, heat waves may also play a crucial role in the intensification of droughts. In the Indian subcontinent, occurrence of heat waves during the pre-monsoon and high air-temperature in the subsequent monsoon season imparts thermal stress on vegetation causing degradation of vegetation health (VH). In the present study, various vegetation indices and land-use/land-cover data derived from multi-sensor satellite have been used to assess VH and agricultural drought in Gujarat during 1981–2010. This Geographical Information Systems-based study has also used heat wave and temperature data to analyze the adverse effects of high temperature on VH. The time series of Vegetation Condition Index and Temperature Condition Index (TCI) has shown that the combined influence of moisture-stress and thermal stress determines the occurrence and severity of drought, which is reflected in the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). A strong correlation among aboveground air-temperature, the TCI and the VHI indicates definite influence of thermal stress on VH. Further, a systematic variation and strong resemblance between temperature, crop yield, TCI and VHI has established the impact of thermal stress on agricultural productivity.     

Estimating inter-annual variability in winter wheat sowing dates from satellite time series in Camargue,France

Crop simulation models are commonly used to forecast the performance of cropping systems under different hypotheses of change. Their use on a regional scale is generally constrained, however, by a lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of environment-related input variables (e.g., soil) and agricultural practices (e.g., sowing dates) that influence crop yields. Satellite remote sensing data can shed light on such variability by providing timely information on crop dynamics and conditions over large areas. This paper proposes a method for analyzing time series of MODIS satellite data in order to estimate the inter-annual variability of winter wheat sowing dates. A rule-based method was developed to automatically identify a reliable sample of winter wheat field time series, and to infer the corresponding sowing dates. The method was designed for a case study in the Camargue region (France), where winter wheat is characterized by vernalization, as in other temperate regions. The detection criteria were chosen on the grounds of agronomic expertise and by analyzing high-confidence time-series vegetation index profiles for winter wheat. This automatic method identified the target crop on more than 56% (four-year average) of the cultivated areas, with low commission errors (11%). It also captured the seasonal variability in sowing dates with errors of ±8 and ±16 days in 46% and 66% of cases, respectively. Extending the analysis to the years 2002–2012 showed that sowing in the Camargue was usually done on or around November 1st (±4 days). Comparing inter-annual sowing date variability with the main local agro-climatic drivers showed that the type of preceding crop and the weather conditions during the summer season before the wheat sowing had a prominent role in influencing winter wheat sowing dates.     

Estimation of damage to agriculture biomass due to Hudhud cyclone and carbon stock assessment in cyclone affected areas using Landsat-8

Developing countries are vulnerable to tropical cyclones due to climatic variability and the frequency and magnitude of some extreme weather and disaster events is likely to increase. Cities and towns situated along the coastal belt of Visakhapatnam district experienced severe damage because of Hudhub cyclone (12 October 2014). The main objective of this research was to identify and quantify the damage to agriculture and vegetation caused by Hudhud cyclone. In this study, landsat-8 satellite data-sets acquired before and after the cyclone have been used; image processing techniques have been carried out to assess the changes of pre- and post-cyclone condition. Economic loss of agriculture crops has been assessed using crop production loss per hectare and total economic loss for agriculture crops in the study area was calculated. Classification results and land use land cover change analysis show that 13.25% of agriculture-Kharif and 31.1% of vegetation was damaged. Crop Biomass was estimated with aid of crop conversion factor for pre- and post-cyclone conditions. Total ‘Above ground biomass’ of the agriculture crop area was estimated at 31.57 t/ha and total loss of biomass was assessed to be 4.2 t/ha. Carbon stock was found to be varying from 0.3 to 8.3 t.C/ha in specific agriculture crops. From the results, it was concluded that Hudhud has done significant damage to the rural and urban areas of Visakhapatnam. The outcome of this study can be used by decision-makers for the release of post disaster relief fund to affected areas.