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硒(Se)是人类和动物必需微量元素之一,为科学预测作物硒含量,实现富硒土地资源合理开发利用。本研究系统采集并分析了13042个表层土壤样品和313套玉米、164套马铃薯及其对应的根系土样品,研究了该区土壤 Se 含量分布特征及影响因素,分别建立了马铃薯、玉米可食部分Se含量的BP神经网络预测模型,对富 Se农作物种植区进行了合理规划。结果表明：土壤Se含量均值是0. 164 μg/g,空间分布不均匀,研究区内清水河平原地区出现富硒区且连片分布。研究区土壤硒元素含量主要受其成土母质控制,岩石经风化剥蚀、随河水迁移和农业灌溉,伴随着有机质含量增加,造成第四系冲洪积平原 Se 含量增加。研究区马铃薯、玉米籽实富Se 率分别为 82. 32 % 和 38. 02 %,且重金属含量不超标,具备开发富硒农产品的潜力。农作物籽实 Se 含量主要与根系土中Se、S、pH和有机质含量有关,通过作物籽实 Se 含量预测模型规划出研究区富 Se 马铃薯种植区面积为 1050. 11 km2,富 Se 玉米种植区面积 19. 19 km2。该认识可为当地富硒农产品种植区规划及作物种植调整提供依据。     

Drought hotspot analysis and risk assessment using probabilistic drought monitoring and severity–duration–frequency analysis

Drought hotspot identification requires continuous drought monitoring and spatial risk assessment. The present study analysed drought events in the agriculture‐dominated mid‐Mahanadi River Basin in Odisha, India, using crop water stress as a drought indicator. This drought index incorporated different factors that affect crop water deficit such as the cropping pattern, soil characteristics, and surface soil moisture. The drought monitoring framework utilized a relevance vector machine model‐based classification that provided the uncertainty associated with drought categorization. Using the proposed framework, drought hotspots are identified in the study region and compared with indices based on precipitation and soil moisture. Further, a bivariate copula is employed to model the agricultural drought characteristics and develop the drought severity–duration–frequency (S–D–F) relationships. The drought hotspot maps and S–D–F curves are developed for different locations in the region. These provided useful information on the site‐specific drought patterns and the characteristics of the devastating droughts of 2002 and 2012, characterized by an average drought duration of 7 months at several locations. The site‐specific risk of short‐ and long‐term agricultural droughts are then investigated using the conditional copula. The results suggest that the conditional return periods and the S–D–F curves are valuable tools to assess the spatial variability of drought risk in the region.     

基于GIS的主要农作物病虫害气象等级预报系统研究

为了将农作物病虫害气象等级预报能力扩展到更大空间尺度,根据相邻和相近农作物种植区域的一致性,进行农作物病虫害预报模型区域化应用和拓展。建立了气象等级划分标准,在Oracle农业气象数据库和地理空间数据库的支持下,采用Visual Basic.NET和GIS组件,设计并实现了基于地理空间信息的主要农作物病虫害气象等级预报系统。该系统可对北方草原蝗虫、东北玉米螟、江南稻飞虱、黄淮棉铃虫、黄淮小麦条锈病、江淮江汉小麦赤霉病和西南地区水稻稻瘟病7大类主要作物病虫害发生发展气象等级进行实时预报,取得了较好效果。     

基于知识推理的农作物空间分布监测方法研究

利用遥感技术进行农作物识别和监测是遥感应用领域的重要研究内容之一。以2006—2007年两个时相的CBERS-02 CCD影像为主要遥感数据源,对山东省某市的主要农作物的种植分布情况进行监测。将农作物的物候特征、光谱特征和纹理特征及GIS辅助信息等多源信息融合,建立识别知识规则,通过知识推理,逐步识别出冬小麦、夏玉米和棉花。最后,利用混淆矩阵对实验结果进行验证。通过分析比较,证明上述方法在监测作物空间分布方面具有较高精度。     

国家级农业气象业务技术综述

国家级农业气象业务经过近50年的发展,服务领域不断拓展,已形成包括农业气象情报、作物产量预报、农业气象灾害监测预警与评估、生态气象监测评估、农用天气预报等系列服务,其业务技术以指标为基础,以遥感和GIS等技术为支撑,发展了指标评判、统计分析预报、模型模拟、综合集成等技术,满足了不同服务对象对业务的需求。未来农业气象业务将更加规范、精细、定量。     

河南省稻麦类作物对气候变化的响应

小麦和水稻是世界最重要的粮食作物。利用河南省小麦和水稻的历史观测资料,结合DSSAT-CERES小麦和ORYZA2000水稻模拟模型,分析和模拟河南省稻麦类作物在历史气候变化条件下生育期和产量的变化。结果表明:冬小麦全生育期长度呈缩短趋势,但播种-越冬天数平均每10 a增加1.7 d,开花到乳熟天数平均每10 a增加2-4 d,返青后各生育期均表现出不同程度的提前;水稻各生育期均有不同程度的提前,尤其是拔节期以前,分蘖前的生育期间隔天数以缩短为主,拔节后以延长为主。雨养小麦模拟产量和水氮增产潜力均呈减少趋势;随着播种期的提前,水稻减产趋势逐渐减弱。     

河南省稻麦类作物对气候变化的响应

小麦和水稻是世界最重要的粮食作物。利用河南省小麦和水稻的历史观测资料,结合DSSAT-CERES 小麦和ORYZA2000水稻模拟模型,分析和模拟河南省稻麦类作物在历史气候变化条件下发育期和产量的变化。结果表明：冬小麦全育期长度呈缩短趋势,但播种-越冬天数平均每10年增加1.7天,开花到乳熟天数平均每10年增加2-4天,返青后各发育期均表现出不同程度的提前;水稻各发育期均有不同程度的提前,尤其是拔节期以前,分蘖前的发育期间隔天数以缩短为主,拔节后以延长为主。雨养小麦模拟产量和水氮增产潜力均呈减少趋势;随着播种期的提前,水稻减产趋势逐渐减弱。     

Crop classification using MODIS NDVI data denoised by wavelet: A case study in Hebei Plain, China

Time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data have been widely used for large area crop mapping.However,the temporal crop signatures generated from these data were always accompanied by noise.In this study,a denoising method combined with Time series Inverse Distance Weighted (T-IDW) interpolating and Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) was presented.The detail crop planting patterns in Hebei Plain,China were classified using denoised time-...     

基于蒸渗仪的蒸散量时间尺度扩展方法对比

蒸散量（ET,Evapotranspiration）时间尺度扩展方法模拟效果受多种因素影响。本文利用蒸渗仪实测的冬小麦生育期ET数据,对比分析基于蒸发比、作物系数和冠层阻力的不同ET时间尺度扩展方法的估算效果。结果表明,对小时到日尺度的ET时间扩展而言,利用上午时段（10：00-11：00）的ET实测数据,基于冠层阻力的日ET尺度扩展值估算效果要优于基于蒸发比和作物系数的效果,而利用下午时段（14：00-15：00）的ET实测数据,基于作物系数的日ET尺度扩展值估算效果要优于基于蒸发比和冠层阻力的效果,对于从典型日到生育期尺度的ET时间扩展,基于作物系数的生育期ET尺度扩展值估算效果要好于基于蒸发比和冠层阻力的效果。应根据当地的气候气象条件、作物种植状况、时间尺度扩展类型、土壤水分、ET观测设施种类等因素,择优适宜的ET时间尺度扩展方法。     

Urban hailstorms: a view from Alberta

Urban hailstorms are rarely studied in detail. This work documents five urban storms in Alberta where damage has, on three occasions, set the record for Canada's most costly natural disaster. Information from newspapers, insurance companies, and disaster assistance programs was utilized to supplement meteorological records and information obtained from public surveys.The record-breaking hail swath which accompanied the 1987 Edmonton tornado was mapped using over 800 responses to an unprecedented newspaper survey. Tennis ball sized hail struck 125 km² of the city. Record-sized hailstones for Alberta were collected. Citizens' measurements of giant hailstones were compared to laboratory measurements. The rural storms were tracked using lightning detector information and damage was mapped using crop insurance and disaster assistance claims. The tornado-bearing storm was found to have a unique track.A late-season hailstorm which struck Calgary in 1991 was mapped using homeowner insurance claims organized by postal areas. Nine out of thirty areas had claims rates exceeding 50%, mainly for shingle replacement. Experiences of claims adjustors and an informal public survey were also utilized. Rural storms were mapped using weather radar and crop losses. The radar beam was strongly attenuated when it passed through hail-bearing storms and, thus, its ability to detect large hail was compromised.Weather conditions, urban and rural damaged areas, and insurance payments were compared for all five local hailstorms. These storms were discussed within the context of the long history of Alberta hail research and current trends in technology implementation. Forecasting of these hailstorms using conventional severe weather indicators was difficult in Calgary because of that city's proximity to the mountains. Hailstorms that struck Munich, Denver, and Toowoomba (Australia) were also discussed, and the hailstones collected from the great Munich storm were compared to those collected from the Edmonton storms.