多源遥感与作物模型同化模拟作物物生长参数时空域连续变化

本文将遥感信息与作物模型同化实现作物生长参数的时空域连续模拟,进而监测生长参数的时空域变化.首先将作物模型WOFOST(World food studies) 与冠层辐射传输模型PROSAIL 耦合构建WOPROSAIL 模型,利用微粒群算法(PSO) 通过最小化从CCD 数据获取的土壤调节植被指数观测值SAVI(soil adjusted vegetation index) 与耦合模型得到的模拟值SAVI’之间差值优化作物模型初始参数.通过MODIS 数据反演实现参数的区域化,并将区域参数作为优化后作物模型输入参数驱动模型逐像元计算生长参数,实现生长参数的时空域连续模拟与监测,最终建立区域尺度遥感-作物模拟同化框架模型RS-WOPROSAIL .结果表明：同化模型解决了作物模型模拟空间域和遥感信息时间域的不连续问题.模型模拟的叶面积指数(LAI) 、穗重(WSO) 、地上总生物量(TAGP) 等生长参数较好地体现了水稻生长状况时空域变化,研究区水稻模拟产量与实际产量的误差为27.4% .     

Warming effect of desert and its impact on oasis heat resources and agricultural productivity in arid land, China

This paper provides a positive view of the desert, in terms of the warming effect of deserts on oases and the impact of heat resources and agricultural production. We use data from experimental sites in the Manas River Basin in China to characterize these relationships. We note that the warming effect of the desert was found to be significant but gradually reduced with increased distance of the oasis from the desert. The range of warming effect is about 100 km, and the improvement in temperature is about 1.8 °C. Due to this warming effect, the desert serves as the second heat source for the oasis, which represents one important aspect of the ecologic value of the desert. Our results also show the warming effect has a strong spatial impact on agricultural productivity. Crop productivity fell by about 49 kg/ha with every 10 km increase in distance away from the desert. Our results imply that crop suitability must correspond to the warming effect of the desert. More efficient use of heat resources can contribute towards achieving potential productivity.     

淮北平原小麦和大豆生长条件下潜水蒸发实验模拟

利用五道沟水文实验站62套原状土蒸渗仪1991～2015年长系列实验资料,采用非线性拟合方法,模拟了砂姜黑土和黄潮土冬小麦和夏大豆各生育期潜水蒸发随埋深变化的规律。通过多种线型拟合,砂姜黑土两种作物潜水蒸发量随埋深的增大而递减,均呈指数函数关系;黄潮土小麦在返青前和大豆出苗-分枝期,潜水蒸发量随埋深的增大而递减,呈指数函数关系,小麦返青期以后和大豆分枝期后,潜水蒸发量在0.5～0.8m埋深区间达到最大值,在0.5～0.8m区间以浅随埋深增大而增大,在0.5～0.8m区间以深随埋深增大而减小,呈复合函数关系。     

渭干河灌区参考作物潜在腾发量的计算及相关分析

利用Penman公式，根据位于渭干河灌区内的库车、沙雅、新和三县气象站1992～1996年气象观测资料，计算了参考作物潜在腾发量并建立了参考作物潜在蒸发量与其它气象要素的经验关系。根据这些经验关系进行参考作物潜在腾发量的估算，其结果可供该地区作物耗水量等研究时参照使用。     

作物水分氮素生产函数模型的研究

在水分生产函数动态产量模型的基础上,考虑土壤氮素对作物生长的影响,建立了作物水分 氮素生产函数动态产量模型,根据作物生长过程中水分和氮素状态,可以对干物质生长过程进行跟踪和预测预报,利用北京永乐店试验资料进行模型参数的拟合,并应用该模型对不同生育阶段干物质产量进行预测,效果良好。     

Water management for irrigation,crop yield and social attitudes: a socio-agricultural agent-based model to explore a collective action problem

ABSTRACT

When rainfall does not meet crop water requirements, supplemental irrigation is needed to maintain productivity. On-farm ponds can prevent excessive groundwater exploitation – to the benefit of the whole community – but they reduce the cultivated area and require investments by each farmer. Thus, choosing the source of water for irrigation (groundwater vs on-farm pond) is a problem of collective action. An agent-based model is developed to simulate a smallholder farming system; the farmers’ long-/short-view orientation determines the choice of the water source. We identify the most beneficial water source for economic gain and its stability, and how it can change across communities and under future climate scenarios. By using on-farm ponds, long-view-oriented farmers provide collective advantages but have individual advantages only under extreme climates; a tragedy of the commons is always possible. Changes in farmers’ attitudes (and hence sources of water) based on previous experiences can worsen the economic outcome.     

中国"丰欠产气候阶段评定预报模式"在比利时的移植

在中比联合项目中，黑龙江省气象科学研究所将多年来在产量预报领域取得的先进科研成果作为中比科技合作交流的主要组成部分移植到比利时王国。经过对比利时的前期调研、实地考察和资料准备，将该产量预报模式制成软件。系统经过调试改造后取得良好效果。     

农业气象作物产量预报的特点与思考

文章回顾了农业气象作物产量预报的发展历程，阐述了其业务支持体系和具有的信息丰富、传送及时、预报技术综合、业务规范的特点。深入分析了当前业务中存在的大范围作物面积难以估测、产量预报模型有待机理化和动态化以及产量预报应面向全球化等问题。从目前面临的机遇与挑战出发，提出了气象部门应充分发挥自身的资源优势，解决存在的难题，以增强农业气象作物产量预报的服务能力。     

Determination of regional distribution of crop transpiration and soil water use efficiency using quantitative remote sensing data through inversion

As is widely known, there is a severe shortage of water resources in North China. There have been frequent droughts in recent years. Developing water saving measures, especially in agricul-ture, has become an urgent task. In water-saving agriculture, one …     

干旱区绿洲空间分异演化研究--以黑河流域绿洲为例

对干旱区绿洲的物质和能量空间分异现象和规律的研究,有助于深刻了解不同类型绿洲形成和演化的自然背景和农业资源组合的特点,为农业生产的合理布局和农业自然资源的优化配置提供理论依据. 以黑河流域绿洲为例,在综合分析影响绿洲空间分异的气候、地质构造和地貌演化、地表水和地下水水文化学性质、土壤性状和水资源供应状况等自然地理要素基础上,将黑河绿洲划分为高位绿洲、中位绿洲和低位绿洲等不同类型. 在此基础上,分析了黑河流域不同类型绿洲主要农作物气候适宜性的空间分异,为绿洲农业资源的优化配置提供了重要的理论依据.