全球变化下作物物候研究进展

作物物候是农作物重要的植物属性,不仅反映作物的生长发育状况,其变化也影响作物产量,是一种能够指示气候变化的综合响应指标。以气温升高为主要标志的全球气候变化对作物物候产生了重要影响,开展全球气候变化下作物物候变化特征及其影响机制研究对于揭示全球变化对作物生长发育过程影响及其产量形成机制具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。目前,作物物候变化及其影响因素是国内外研究的焦点和热点问题,前人已开展了大量而卓有成效的研究工作。本文侧重介绍全球气候变化下作物物候变化的主要研究进展,包括作物物候变化的驱动因子及其影响机制和作物物候主要研究方法,并探讨未来研究仍亟待解决的关键科学问题,以期为深入认识全球气候变化对农业物候的影响机理以及指导区域农业生产实践提供理论依据。     

Determinants of crop diversity in the regions of Bangladesh (1990–2008)

The paper measures the level of crop diversity and identifies factors influencing diversification using a panel data of 17 regions of Bangladesh covering a 19 year period (1990–2008). Results revealed the trends that agricultural areas allocated to high‐yielding variety rice, spices and vegetables has increased, while areas cultivating traditional rice, minor cereals, oilseeds, pulses, jute and sugarcane has declined at variable rates across regions with significant differences. The level of crop diversity is also significantly different across regions and has decreased in 2008 from its 1990 level in most regions except Faridpur, Khulna and Sylhet. Among the determinants, an increase in the relative prices of vegetables and urea fertilizer, extension expenditure, labour stock per farm, average farm size, irrigation and a reduction in livestock per farm significantly increase crop diversity. Price policies to improve vegetable prices and investment in irrigation infrastructure and extension services are suggested to promote crop diversity in Bangladesh.     

Quantifying determinants of cash crop expansion and their relative effects using logistic regression modeling and variance partitioning

Cash crop expansion has been a major land use change in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Quantifying the determinants of cash crop expansion should provide deeper spatial insights into the dynamics and ecological consequences of cash crop expansion. This paper investigated the process of cash crop expansion in Hangzhou region (China) from 1985 to 2009 using remotely sensed data. The corresponding determinants (neighborhood, physical, and proximity) and their relative effects during three periods (1985–1994, 1994–2003, and 2003–2009) were quantified by logistic regression modeling and variance partitioning. Results showed that the total area of cash crops increased from 58,874.1 ha in 1985 to 90,375.1 ha in 2009, with a net growth of 53.5%. Cash crops were more likely to grow in loam soils. Steep areas with higher elevation would experience less likelihood of cash crop expansion. A consistently higher probability of cash crop expansion was found on places with abundant farmland and forest cover in the three periods. Besides, distance to river and lake, distance to county center, and distance to provincial road were decisive determinants for farmers’ choice of cash crop plantation. Different categories of determinants and their combinations exerted different influences on cash crop expansion. The joint effects of neighborhood and proximity determinants were the strongest, and the unique effect of physical determinants decreased with time. Our study contributed to understanding of the proximate drivers of cash crop expansion in subtropical regions.     

气候变暖对黑龙江省主要农作物的影响

利用黑龙江省和哈尔滨市的气温资料,通过5种气候模式,对黑龙江省及哈尔滨市的气温变化特点,以及未来50 a的变化趋势作了分析。结果表明：20世纪80年代以来,黑龙江省气候明显变暖,在1881-2001年120 a间哈尔滨年平均气温上升了1.4℃,全省1981-2000年较1951-1980年间平均气温上升近1.0℃。数值模拟结果显示,2030年和2050年的气温将分别升高1.9℃和2.4℃,到2050年≥10℃积温带将北移约5个纬距。气候变暖对水稻、玉米、大豆和小麦生长发育的影响很大,除大豆增产外,其他作物产量均有所降低。因此,必须进行作物结构调整才能逐步适应气候变化,获得增产     

Water management for irrigation,crop yield and social attitudes: a socio-agricultural agent-based model to explore a collective action problem

ABSTRACT

When rainfall does not meet crop water requirements, supplemental irrigation is needed to maintain productivity. On-farm ponds can prevent excessive groundwater exploitation – to the benefit of the whole community – but they reduce the cultivated area and require investments by each farmer. Thus, choosing the source of water for irrigation (groundwater vs on-farm pond) is a problem of collective action. An agent-based model is developed to simulate a smallholder farming system; the farmers’ long-/short-view orientation determines the choice of the water source. We identify the most beneficial water source for economic gain and its stability, and how it can change across communities and under future climate scenarios. By using on-farm ponds, long-view-oriented farmers provide collective advantages but have individual advantages only under extreme climates; a tragedy of the commons is always possible. Changes in farmers’ attitudes (and hence sources of water) based on previous experiences can worsen the economic outcome.     

作物水分氮素生产函数模型的研究

在水分生产函数动态产量模型的基础上,考虑土壤氮素对作物生长的影响,建立了作物水分 氮素生产函数动态产量模型,根据作物生长过程中水分和氮素状态,可以对干物质生长过程进行跟踪和预测预报,利用北京永乐店试验资料进行模型参数的拟合,并应用该模型对不同生育阶段干物质产量进行预测,效果良好。     

作物布局,耕作制度,栽培技术与棉铃虫调控

分析了８０年代以来作物布局、耕作制度、栽培技术的变化,指出这些变化与棉铃虫为害有着密切的关系,从这一角度提出了调控棉铃虫的措施。     

内蒙古准格尔旗丘陵沟壑区退耕还林(草)模式

根据准格尔旗的自然环境特点,社会经济状况,以及水土流失及沙漠化灾害的特点,总结出适用上述条件下的退耕还林(草)的几种模式,恢复生态,发展经济。     

Reedbed evapotranspiration rates in England

Measurements of evapotranspiration from contrasting stands of Phragmites australis [ET(Reed)] were obtained over several years at three sites within England between 1994 and 1998. A comparison with published ET(Reed) values showed the UK rates to be considerably lower than those measured in continental Europe. From the ET(Reed) data monthly crop coefficients [K_c(Reed)] have been developed, which when used with Reference Crop Evapotranspiration will enable reedbed water use to be determined. Due to the differences in study site characteristics, values for K_c varied widely, and it was not considered appropriate to combine results to produce a single set of monthly mean values. However, suggestions are made regarding the application of the K_c(Reed) values to wetland design. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新疆吐鲁番早期铁器时代青稞脱粒研究

本研究选取新疆吐鲁番苏贝希文化具有代表性的洋海墓地、胜金店墓地及鱼儿沟遗址出土的青稞遗存为研究材料,并结合现代青稞原始脱粒模拟实验,初步探讨吐鲁番早铁器时代先民的青稞脱粒方式。本研究选择了手搓、徒手摔打、木棍击打等3种原始脱粒方法,统计所产生的青稞副产品的组合比例及形态,然后将结果与青稞遗存进行比较。研究发现：洋海墓地、胜金店墓地及鱼儿沟遗址出土的青稞遗存多为破碎断裂的穗轴且形态扁平,与木棍击打所产生的外观形态较为相似;穗轴的破碎状态及破碎程度同样与现代模拟实验木棍击打的结果极为接近。综上证明,吐鲁番早铁器时代的先民可能使用木棍击打的方法对青稞进行脱粒。