气候变化背景下湖北省高温干旱复合灾害变化特征

利用湖北省76个国家气象站1961—2022年地面气象观测资料,基于气象干旱综合监测指数(Meteorological Drought Composite Index,MCI)和有效降水指数(Effective Precipitation,EP)识别湖北省历年干旱和洪涝过程,分析近62 a旱涝过程频次时空变化和旱涝年、旱涝转换特征以及2010年以来旱涝特点。结果表明：湖北省旱涝频发区总体呈东涝西旱、南涝北旱的片状分布。干旱和暴雨洪涝发生频次分别呈现波动式下降、上升趋势。干旱主要发生在春季和伏秋季,发生频次总体呈减少趋势,但夏秋干旱以及极端干旱有趋多增强的态势;暴雨洪涝主要集中在夏季,发生频次呈增多趋势。旱涝年年际间呈现连旱2~4 a、连涝2~3 a或旱涝交替的特征,部分年份年内旱涝并存、旱涝急转,2010年以来无旱涝并存年。旱涝转换站数年际间波动较大,呈现5个阶段性上升特征,各递增阶段最大站数呈递减趋势。2010年以来旱涝呈现极端性增强、骤发性增多及连旱连涝的特点。

     

Search for periodicities of the solar irradiance data from the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) using the periodogram method

We have analyzed the solar irradiance data from the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite(ERBS)during the time period from 1984 October 15 to 2003 October 15.By first filtering the data by Simple Exponential Smoothing,we have applied the periodogram method to the processed data in order to search for its time variation.The study exhibits multi-periodicities on these data around 110,118,574 and 740d with very high confidence levels(more than 99%).These periods are significantly similar to the periods of other solar activities which may suggest that solar irradiance may be associated with other solar activities.     

Fault structures and their geoelectric parameters in the epicentral zone of the 27 September 2003 Chuya earthquake (Gorny Altai) from resistivity data

This paper presents an integrated measurement technique based on DC methods (vertical electrical sounding, electrical resistivity tomography) which was used to identify faults and determine their geoelectric parameters in the western part of the Chuya basin. New information on the structure of the Chagan River valley located in the zone of the disastrous 27 September 2003 Chuya earthquake has been obtained from the results of these methods. Geoelectric cross-sections of the sedimentary sequence and the upper part of the basement were obtained from VES data, showing the block structure of the study area. Electrical resistivity tomography sections confirm the presence of a major fault between basement blocks of different heights and indicate the presence of faults bounding the valley on its right side and in the southwestern part.     

CMB temperature polarization correlation and primordial gravitational waves

We examine the use of the TE cross-correlation power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) as a complementary test to detect primordial gravitational waves (PGWs). The first method used is based on the determination of the lowest multipole, ℓ₀, where the TE power spectrum,   C ^TE_ℓ  , first changes sign. The second method uses Wiener filtering on the CMB TE data to remove the density perturbations contribution to the TE power spectrum. In principle this leaves only the contribution of PGWs. We examine two toy experiments (one ideal and another more realistic) to see their ability to constrain PGWs using the TE power spectrum alone. We found that an ideal experiment, one limited only by cosmic variance, can detect PGWs with a ratio of tensor to scalar metric perturbation power spectra   r = 0.3  at 99.9 per cent confidence level using only the TE correlation. This value is comparable with current constraints obtained by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe based on the 2σ upper limits to the B-mode amplitude. We demonstrate that to measure PGWs by their contribution to the TE cross-correlation power spectrum in a realistic ground-based experiment when real instrumental noise is taken into account, the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r , should be approximately three times larger.     

常量元素氧化物含量及其比值揭示的中晚全新世以来玛曲高原的环境演变

对玛曲高原具有代表性的黄土-古土壤-风成砂剖面(OL剖面)常量元素氧化物含量及其比值的地球化学特征分析表明:(1)常量元素氧化物总含量为91.93%且SiO₂(67.93%) >Al₂O₃(11.2%) >Fe₂O₃(3.97%) >CaO(3.76%)>K₂O(2.16%) >Na₂O(1.81%) >MgO(1.1%);(2)玛曲高原处于较弱的脱Ca、Na初级风化阶段,并伴有碳酸盐的淋失;(3)玛曲高原的气候经历了冷干-凉润-温湿-凉干的冷暖旋回。依据常量元素氧化物含量及其比值揭示的环境特征并结合¹⁴C测年将玛曲高原中晚全新世以来的环境演变划分为4.6 ka BP以前的风沙活动强烈期、4.6～4.3 ka BP的风沙活动较弱期、4.3～0.3 ka BP的固结成壤期和0.3 ka BP至今的风沙活动增强期4个阶段。     

The Tully–Fisher relation for S0 galaxies

We present a study of the local B - and K _s-band Tully–Fisher relation (TFR) between absolute magnitude and maximum circular speed in S0 galaxies. To make this study, we have combined kinematic data, including a new high-quality spectral data set from the Fornax cluster, with homogeneous photometry from the Third Reference Catalogue of Bright Galaxies and Two Micron All Sky Survey catalogues, to construct the largest sample of S0 galaxies ever used in a study of the TFR. Independent of environment, S0 galaxies are found to lie systematically below the TFR for nearby spirals in both optical and infrared bands. This offset can be crudely interpreted as arising from the luminosity evolution of spiral galaxies that have faded since ceasing star formation.
However, we also find a large scatter in the TFR. We show that most of this scatter is intrinsic, not due to the observational uncertainties. The presence of such a large scatter means that the population of S0 galaxies cannot have formed exclusively by the above simple fading mechanism after all transforming at a single epoch. To better understand the complexity of the transformation mechanism, we have searched for correlations between the offset from the TFR and other properties of the galaxies such as their structural properties, central velocity dispersions and ages (as estimated from line indices). For the Fornax cluster data, the offset from the TFR correlates with the estimated age of the stars in the individual galaxies, in the sense and of the magnitude expected if S0 galaxies had passively faded since being converted from spirals. This correlation implies that a significant part of the scatter in the TFR arises from the different times at which galaxies began their transformation.     

农地城市流转决策优化研究

农地保护与城市发展被认为是一对矛盾。农地城市流转决策应协调好二者的关系,以实现土地的可持续利用。而现行决策的片面性从某种程度上助长了农地的盲目流失,直接影响到我国土地资源的后续利用、粮食安全、生态环境等。文章从可持续利用的角度,通过对农地城市流转的选择价值和外部性的分析及评价,优化了农地城市流转决策。     

Planar Symmetric Periodic Orbits in Four Dipole Problem

We have extend Stormer’s problem considering four magnetic dipoles in motion trying to justify the phenomena of extreme “orderlines” such as the ones observed in the rings of Saturn; the aim is to account the strength of the Lorentz forces estimating that the Lorentz field, co-acting with the gravity field of the planet, will limit the motion of all charged particles and small size grains with surface charges inside a layer of about 200 m thickness as that which is observed in the rings of Saturn. For this purpose our interest feast in the motion of charged particles with neglected mass where only electromagnetic forces accounted in comparison to the weakness of the Newtonian fields. This study is particularly difficult because in the regions we investigate these motions there is enormous three dimensional instability. Following the Poincare’s hypothesis that periodic solutions are ‘dense’ in the set of all solutions in Hamiltonian systems we try to calculate many families of periodic solutions and to study their stability. In this work we prove that in this environment charged particles can trace planar symmetric periodic orbits. We discuss these orbits in details and we give their symplectic relations using the Hamiltonian formulation which is related to the symplectic matrix. We apply numerical procedures to find families of these orbits and to study their stability. Moreover we give the bifurcations of these families with families of planar asymmetric periodic orbits and families of three dimensional symmetric periodic orbits.