Integrating climate and local factors for geomorphological distribution models

Earth surface processes (ESPs) drive landscape development and ecosystem processes in high‐latitude regions by creating spatially heterogeneous abiotic and biotic conditions. Ongoing global change may potentially alter the activity of ESPs through feedback on ground conditions, vegetation and the carbon cycle. Consequently, accurate modeling of ESPs is important for improving understanding of the current and future distributions of these processes. The aims of this study were to: (1) integrate climate and multiple local predictors to develop realistic ensemble models for the four key ESPs occurring at high latitudes (slope processes, cryoturbation, nivation and palsa mires) based on the outputs of 10 modern statistical techniques; (2) test whether models of ESPs are improved by incorporating topography, soil and vegetation predictors to climate‐only models; (3) examine the relative importance of these variables in a multivariate setting. Overall, the models showed high transferability with the mean area under curve of a receiver operating characteristics (AUC) ranging from 0.83 to 0.96 and true skill statistics (TSS) from 0.52 to 0.87 for the most complex models. Even though the analyses highlighted the importance of the climate variables as the most influential predictors, three out of four models benefitted from the inclusion of local predictors. We conclude that disregarding local topography and soil conditions in spatial models of ESPs may cause a significant source of error in geomorphological distribution models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中高纬度印度洋海温与西北太平洋夏季台风生成数的相关性

从独立性、显著性和滞后性角度分析西北太平洋夏季台风生成数(WNPTYF)与前期中高纬度印度洋海表温度(SST)的关系, 结果表明:前期中高纬度印度洋SST与WNPTYF相关显著, 且独立于热带东太平洋SST(或ENSO)对WNPTYF影响;中高纬度印度洋SST年际变化对WNPTYF年际变化的指示能力相当或超过热 带东太平洋, 综合两者的影响预测夏季西北太平洋台风生成数的变化有非常重要的现实意义。进一步的分析表明, 中高纬度印度洋SST对WNPTYF影响有明显的滞后性, 前期相关显著而同期相关不显著。这种滞后性意味着其前期中高纬度印度洋SST对WNPTYF的影响并不是通过SST的持续性, 而很可能是通过南半球大气活动的持续性及异常信号在大气中的传播而影响到夏季的环流, 最终影响WNPTYF异常。这种影响机制有待进一步研究。     

盾构施工引起地表固结沉降问题的研究

将隧道周围土体视为均质连续各向同性的饱和弹性介质,采用保角变换的方法将含有隧道的半无限平面映射为同心圆环计算域。根据Terzaghi-Rendulic二维固结理论,建立隧道在不透水的情况下周围土体超孔隙水压力分布的控制方程。然后,采用分离变量法计算得到土体超孔隙水压力分布的解析解,最后,根据弹性理论计算得出隧道中线上方地表固结沉降的计算公式。结合算例,分析盾构施工扰动程度、土体渗透系数、土体弹性模量及隧道埋深等因素对隧道中心上方地表处固结沉降的影响。研究结果表明,地表固结沉降的增加值与隧道外侧初始超孔隙水压力值C0的变化量成正比例关系,施工扰动程度越大所引起的固结沉降越大;土体的渗透系数越大固结沉降速度越快,但土体的渗透系数与最终的地表固结沉降量无关;土体的弹性模量越大,最终的地表固结沉降量越小;隧道埋深越深,地表固结沉降所需时间越长,最终的地表固结沉降量也越大。     

环形单圈管冻结稳态温度场解析解

人工地层冻结技术被广泛应用于地下工程施工中。冻结温度场的计算是人工冻结法理论研究的基础,也是冻结施工设计的重要依据。人工地层冻结施工常使用环形单圈冻结管冻结,而至今尚无关于其温度场的解析解。基于水-热异类相似原理,根据传热过程与地下水流动相似的特点,利用保角映射、汇源反映和势函数叠加原理,类比推导了环形单圈冻结管稳态温度场解析解,并用热学数值模拟方法加以验证,同时提出了简化的解析公式。结果表明,解析解计算结果与数值模拟结果较吻合,其简化公式得到的结果与原解析公式基本一致。在解析公式的基础上,经过简化,反推得到外部冻结壁厚度公式。解析解、简化公式以及厚度公式可为环形单圈冻结施工与设计提供理论的依据与指导。     

Latitudinal trends in the species richness of free-living marine nematode assemblages from exposed sandy beaches along the coast of Chile (18–42 °S)

The latitudinal pattern of species richness of free-living marine nematodes from exposed sandy beaches along the coast of Chile between 18 and 42° S was examined. Unlike many other examinations of latitudinal gradients, this study is not based on data mined from the literature, but on samples collected specifically to examine these themes. Five replicate quantitative 50 cm³ samples of sediment were taken from the zone of retention of 66 exposed sandy beaches. The free-living nematode fauna was identified and quantified to species level. The data were then examine using ordinary least squares and simultaneous autoregressive model (SAR_err) regression methods, examining the associations between species richness and latitude, coastline complexity, and sea surface temperature, primary productivity of the adjacent coastal waters and mean latitudinal range size. The species richness of free-living marine nematodes from exposed sandy beaches along the coast of Chile decreased with increasing latitude and was strongly associated with mean annual sea surface temperature. Mean latitudinal range size increased with increasing latitude, supporting Rapoport’s rule, and decreased with increasing species richness. The results suggest that the nematode fauna of exposed sandy beaches is derived from a low latitude fauna that has dispersed to higher latitudes, but that many species may be physiologically constrained, by temperature, from dispersing further south.     

中高纬大气ISO对夏季鄂海阻高形成和维持的调节作用

运用1979—2015年的逐日NCEP-DOE再分析资料,探讨了夏季鄂霍次克海阻塞高压(简称“鄂海阻高”)与中高纬大气季节内振荡(简称“ISO”)之间的可能联系。研究发现,ISO扰动与夏季鄂海阻高在关键区(130°~160°E,60°~75°N)有最好的耦合关系,且关键区位势高度表现出显著的10~30 d的振荡周期。超前滞后合成分析表明,与鄂海阻高相联系的ISO扰动具有明显的向西传播的特征。波活动通量分析结果显示,波能量在中高纬140°W附近累积,因此西传的ISO扰动可能源自中高纬140°W附近。对位势倾向方程的诊断结果显示,动力作用对关键区位势高度的时间变化起主要作用。进一步运用尺度分析表明,在夏季鄂海阻高发生和维持的过程中,ISO经向风引导的平均涡度平流对位势高度的时间变化起主导作用。     

Vertical structure variability in a seasonal simulation of a medium-resolution regional model of the Eastern South Pacific

A seasonal simulation from a medium-resolution ocean general circulation mode (OGCM) is used to investigate the vertical structure variability of the Southeast Pacific (SEP). The focus is on the extra-tropical Rossby wave (ETRW) variability and associated forcing mechanism. Some aspects of the model mean state are validated from available observations, which justifies a vertical mode decomposition of the model variability. The analysis of the baroclinic mode contributions to sea level indicates that the gravest mode is dominant over most of the domain at all frequencies. Annual variability is on average twice as large as the semi-annual variability which is confined near the coast for all the modes. The first baroclinic mode contribution to the annual cycle exhibits a clear westward propagation north of the critical latitude. The higher-order modes only contribute near the coast where they are associated with vertically propagating energy. The residual variability, which is the energy at all timescales other than annual and semi-annual periods peaks offshore between 20°S and 30°S for all baroclinic modes. The third baroclinic mode also exhibits a relative maximum variability off the coast of Peru south of the critical latitude of the annual cycle (13°S), where the Peru–Chile Undercurrent is the most intense. Sensitivity experiments to the atmospheric and boundary forcing suggest that the residual variability results from the non-linear interaction between annual Rossby waves and the mean flow, while the annual ETRWs in the model result from the summed-contribution from both the local wind stress and remote equatorial forcing. Overall the study extends the classical analysis of sea level variability in the SEP based on linear theory, and suggests that the peculiarities of the baroclinic modes need to be taken into account for interpreting the sea level variability and understanding its connection with the equatorial variability.     

中国大陆对全球变暖响应的区域敏感性分析

依据分辨率为0.5°×0.5°经纬度的网格数据,运用Mann-Kendall法对中国大陆各地在20世纪温度变化进行了分析.结果显示:有两次明显的升温事件,分别发生在20年代初到40代中期(第一次升温事件)和70年代中期以来(第二次升温事件);对比各地对全球升温响应的突变时间,发现在中国大陆的响应规律为:沿经线方向,大约35°N附近为两次升温事件的分界线,以它为界,第一次升温事件中温度转折时间向低纬度不断提早,在第二次升温事件中,升温突变时间越向高纬度地区越提早;在纬线方向上,中国东部地区对升温响应的时间突变点基本一致,但在青藏高原及其周围地区,由于受特殊的高原气候的影响,升温时间突变迥然不同.青藏高原大大提前了其西部和西北地区对全球升温的响应时间,同时它又推迟了其西南地区对全球升温响应的时间.通过分析发现,升温机制不同,温度变化区域响应的敏感性主要是纬度位置和地形因素综合影响的结果,而纬度位置是制约区域温度变化敏感性的主导性因素.     

1981—2010年青藏高原地区气温变化与高程及纬度的关系

基于青藏高原地区高质量、均一化的气象站点观测资料,研究1981—2010年青藏高原地区气温变化趋势特征。结果表明:1981—2010年青藏高原地区整体呈升温趋势,平均升温率为0.40℃/10a,冬春季升温率大于夏秋季节,以三江源区、西藏中西部和青海北部升温趋势最为显著。青藏高原地区年和冬、春、秋三季的升温率随海拔高度的升高而增大,海拔每升高1000 m,站点年平均气温倾向率增加0.1℃/10a,冬季更为显著。青藏高原地区夏季气温倾向率的空间分布具有显著的经向差异,纬度每增加10°,气温倾向率增加0.33℃/10a。     

2003年夏季中高纬度环流与淮河流域降水

研究了 2 0 0 3年夏季中高纬环流特征以及乌拉尔山、鄂霍茨克海和贝加尔湖三个地区阻高指数逐候的变化情况。 6月下旬至 7月上旬东亚中高纬出现“双阻”形势 ,造成淮河流域持续一个多月的集中强降水 ,但是在 7月底 ,鄂霍次克海阻高再度建立并持续 ,致使盛夏西太平洋副热带高压较常年偏南 ,所以雨带的位置也未能北移。因此 2 0 0 3年夏季主要雨带维持在淮河流域