Generalized extreme value shape parameter and its nature for extreme precipitation using long time series and the Bayesian approach

Assessing the probability of extreme precipitation events is consequential in civil planning. This requires an understanding of how return values change with return periods, which is essentially described by the generalized extreme value (GEV) shape parameter. Some works in the field suggest a constant shape parameter, while our analysis indicates a non-universal value. We re-analysed an older precipitation dataset (169 stations) extended by Norwegian data (71 stations). We showed that while each set seems to have a constant shape parameter, it differs between the two datasets, indicating regional differences. For a more comprehensive analysis of spatial effects, we examined a global dataset (1495 stations). We provided shape parameter maps for two models and found clear evidence that the shape parameter depends on elevation, while the effect of latitude remains uncertain. Our results confirm an explanation in terms of dominating precipitation systems based on a proxy derived from the Köppen-Geiger climate classification.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Numerical simulation of large wood deposition patterns and responses of bed morphology in a braided river using large wood dynamics model

This study discusses the reproducibility of a numerical model for simulating the morphodynamics involved in the transport of large pieces of wood in a braided river, considering the root wad effect and jam formation. The developed numerical model can simulate the behaviour of large pieces of wood using a two-dimensional depth-averaged Eulerian flow model that calculates the water flow and bed morphology. A Lagrange-type wood transport model is used herein, and the applicability of the combined model is discussed through a comparison with obtained experimental results. From the simulation results, we calculate the total braiding index and estimate the deposition patterns of wood pieces for comparison with the experimental results. We then analyse the bed morphology responses and wood deposition patterns in terms of the root wad effect and input supply. Moreover, we discuss the advantages and limitations of the proposed model to predict the large wood dynamics considering the bed morphology. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analytic scaling laws in planetary dynamo models

ABSTRACT

Numerical models of planetary MHD dynamos have led to many advances in the last twenty years. However, the accessible parameter space of these models is somewhat limited due to computational constraints. A number of numerically based scaling laws have been proposed, but it has been difficult to reliably confirm them from the simulation data alone. Since these scaling laws have to be used to extend the numerical models into the planetary parameter regime, getting correct scalings is an important issue. Here some possible balances between the relevant terms in the dynamo equations are considered, and a number of different known and new scaling laws are proposed and justified from analytical point of view. Some of these laws are compatible with the widely known Christensen and Aubert (Geophys. J. Int. 2006, 166) scaling for the magnetic field strength. Plausible estimates of the typical values of the important quantities in the Earth's core and other Terrestrial planets are made, and the extent to which the various scaling laws are consistent with these estimates is discussed.     

Performance comparison of multiple and single surrogate models for pumping optimization of coastal aquifers

Single and multiple surrogate models were compared for single-objective pumping optimization problems of a hypothetical and a real-world coastal aquifer. Different instances of radial basis functions and kriging surrogates were utilized to reduce the computational cost of direct optimization with variable density and salt transport models. An adaptive surrogate update scheme was embedded in the operations of an evolutionary algorithm to efficiently control the feasibility of optimal solutions in pumping optimization problems with multiple constraints. For a set of independent optimization runs, results showed that multiple surrogates, either by selecting the best or by using ensembles, did not necessarily outperform the single surrogate approach. Nevertheless, the ensemble with optimal weights produced slightly better results than selecting only the best surrogates or applying a simple averaging approach. For all cases, the computational cost, by using single or multiple surrogate models, was reduced by up to 90% of the direct optimization.     

Spatial seismic modeling of base‐isolated buildings pounding against moat walls: effects of ground motion directionality and mass eccentricity

Structural impact between adjacent buildings may induce local and, in some extreme cases, severe damage, especially in the case of seismically isolated buildings. This study parametrically investigates in the three‐dimensional domain the effect of pounding on the peak response of base‐isolated buildings, which are simulated as nonlinear three‐dimensional multi‐degree‐of‐freedom systems. Firstly, it is shown that considering unidirectional, instead of bidirectional, excitations may lead to underestimation of the base drift demands. Subsequently, the peak responses of seismically isolated buildings utilizing lead rubber bearings are studied while varying important parameters, such as the incidence angle of seismic excitations, the available seismic clearance, and mass eccentricities, under the action of bidirectional horizontal excitations. A large number of numerical simulations are performed using a specially developed software that implements an efficient approach to model impacts, taking into account arbitrary locations of contact points. It is found that the peak interstory drift ratio is significantly influenced by the directionality of the ground motion. Therefore, the seismic performance of structures should ideally be assessed examining the peak structural response while bidirectional ground motions are imposed at various incident angles. Furthermore, it is also observed that the interstory drift ratios increase while decreasing the available gap size, up to a certain value. Finally, the parametric analyses indicate that the effects of impact are more severe for structures with mass eccentricities, and in which case, the estimation of the critical incidence angle becomes more laborious. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

秦岭造山带大型-超大型矿床密集区构造定位与勘查新思路--热水沉积成矿盆地分析与研究方法之三

采用构造 -沉积 -成矿综合分析方法对秦岭造山带大型 -超大型矿床的地质背景及构造定位进行了研究 ,认为秦岭泥盆纪聚矿沉积盆地位于两类大陆构造环境中 ,即秦岭微板块板内聚矿沉积盆地及秦岭微板块北缘被动陆缘上聚矿沉积盆地 ,这些聚矿盆地均属伸展盆地。提出秦岭造山带大型 -超大型矿床定位模式及新勘查思路。     

台风移行速度与登陆角度对风暴潮的影响:一个理想模型数值实验

The effects of hurricane forward speed(V) and approach angle(θ) on storm surge are important and a systematic investigation covering possible and continuous ranges of these parameters has not been done before. Here we present such a study with a numerical experiment using the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model(FVCOM).The hurricane track is simplified as a straight line, such that V and θ fully define the motion of the hurricane. The maximum surge is contributed by both free waves and a forced storm surge wave moving with the hurricane.Among the free waves, Kelvin-type waves can only propagate in the down-coast direction. Simulations show that those waves can only have a significant positive storm surge when the hurricane velocity has a down-coast component. The optimal values of V and θ that maximize the storm surge in an idealized semi-circular ocean basin are functions of the bathymetry. For a constant bathymetry, the maximum surge occurs when the hurricane approaches the coast from the normal direction when the free wave generation is minimal; for a stepped bathymetry, the maximum surge occurs at a certain acute approach angle which maximizes the duration of persistent wind forcing; a step-like bathymetry with a sloped shelf is similar to the stepped bathymetry, with the added possibility of landfall resonance when the free and forced waves are moving at about the same velocity. For other cases, the storm surge is smaller, given other parameters(hurricane size, maximum wind speed, etc.)unchanged.     

气泡羽流的研究进展和应用

从试验、积分羽流模型、CFD模型方面综述了气泡羽流的研究现状。在此基础上,介绍了一些应用领域的研究进展,包括海上天然气泄露、海上溢油的围控、水处理和污水处理以及疏浚工程。     

多点激励下拱桥竖向地震反应的简化计算方法

以某大跨公路拱桥为例,通过对拱桥在三种行波输入模式下地震反应的对比计算,提出了拱脚行波输入的简化输入方式;利用拱桥结构的对称性特点,提出了多点输入下半拱叠加的简化计算方法。经验证,这一计算方法具有良好的计算精度,可将较为复杂的拱桥多点输入地震反应计算问题,转化为工程技术人员熟悉的一致输入下地震反应计算问题。