Computational homogenization of uncoupled consolidation in micro‐heterogeneous porous media

Variationally consistent homogenization is exploited for the analysis of transient uncoupled consolidation in micro‐heterogeneous porous solids, whereby the classical approach of first‐order homogenization for stationary problems is extended to transient problems. Homogenization is then carried out in the spatial domain on representative volume elements (RVE), which are introduced in quadrature points in standard fashion. Along with the classical averages, a higher‐order conservation quantity is obtained. An iterative FE²‐algorithm is devised for the case of nonlinear permeability and storage coefficients, and it is applied to pore pressure changes in asphalt‐concrete (particle composite). Various parametric studies are carried out, in particular, with respect to the influence of the ‘substructure length scale’ that is represented by the size of the RVE's. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic hazard assessment using intensity point data

The influence of the attenuation model used in seismic hazard assessment in terms of intensity and acceleration is studied. For two sites in central Italy, the catalogue of the actual observed intensities during the last three centuries has been recovered. In the study region, the data collected during a recent seismic sequence give the basis for relating intensity and acceleration. The results show the importance of establishing statistical relationships among the used quantities, based on a representative set of data.     

AN~2 APPLICATION IN THE METRODS OF POPULATION GEOGRAPHY

1.PoPulation~aphyisthestudy0fthespatialdistributionmdarrangnatsofhumanpoPulation.ItisthesdenceofhowspatialvariarionsinthecomPosihon,growth,whgraion,anddistribLItionofpoPulatonsaiere1ataltospatialvariationsinthenatureofplaces.ThemethodsplayanimPohanroleinr…     

参考大气在中期天气预报和气候模拟中的应用

本文概述了根据应用参考大气概念提出的参考大气谱模式计算格式（或称静力扣除法）在国内外一些气象机构的中期天气预报、后处理和四维同化、以及气候模拟中的应用。计算表明，这种参考大气谱模式计算格式，能有效的减少截谱误差，明显地改进中期天气预报和气候模拟。     

Hydrological control of flooding: Tuscany,October 1992

In the study of flash-flood occurrence in small catchments the lack of flow measurements is often one of the main limiting factors. Prior to estimating the forecasting potentialities and techniques for such events, an accurate reconstruction of past event flood dynamics is first required. This issue is here addressed by analyzing, with the use of a distributed hydrological model, the hydrometeorological conditions in which a severe flash-flood occurred, on October 1992, on a 48 square kilometers catchment in the Arno basin. Such an event was caused by the persistence of intense convective clusters on the background of widespread rain bands of frontal origin. The distributed hydrological model here adopted is devoted to simulate the evolution and the variability of the primary processes involved in the runoff cycle. Together with the hydrological model structure, other particular aspects of the event reconstruction procedure are discussed: the managing and processing of the information coming from different sensors, with different temporal and spatial resolutions; the identification of local precipitation dynamics (frontal or convective) within small areas of integrated radar and rain gauges data fields; the interpolation of rain gauge data on the basis of the radar-estimated spatial correlation. The results of the distributed modeling, concerning the estimate of the flood wave at various sites, are compared with analogous results obtained with simpler lumped models.     

Digital modeling studies for evaluation of hydrogeological characteristics in Shadnagar granite basin,Andhra Pradesh,India

The use of digital models has increased significantly in recent years with the accessibility of fast computing machines. A variable dimensioned digital model was constructed for the Shadnagar granite basin using SPECTRUM-7 micro computer to integrate various hydrogeological characteristics and for their quantitative evaluation. The basin has an areal extent of 437 sq km and is demarcated with clear water divides in all directions. Transmissivity, recharge and discharge at each cell of the basin area were estimated by trial and error simulation of the hydrogeological phenomenon under steady state condition. Dynamic simulation at representative nodes facilitated the estimation of storage coefficient. The capability of the constructed model was established by the conformance of the simulated hydrographs with the actual behaviour of the ground water system. The entire studies ammended the earlier arrived estimates of various input/output hydrogeological parameters and evolved a methodology for efficient processing of aquifer simulation data     

Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach

Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way in many cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From the perspective of this article, risk requires a multidisciplinary evaluation that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favour the second order effects (indirect effects) when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. The proposed general method of urban risk evaluation is multi hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and comprehensive approach to guide decision-making. The evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as the result of the convolution of hazard and physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure is the first step of this method. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects are also considered (soft approach). In the method here proposed, the holistic risk evaluation is based on urban risk indicators. According to this procedure, a physical risk index is obtained, for each unit of analysis, from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. Finally, the proposed method is applied in its single hazard form to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of Bogota (Colombia) and Barcelona (Spain).     

Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty. A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves.     

Nonlinear determinism in river flow: prediction as a possible indicator

Whether or not river flow exhibits nonlinear determinism remains an unresolved question. While studies on the use of nonlinear deterministic methods for modeling and prediction of river flow series are on the rise and the outcomes are encouraging, suspicions and criticisms of such studies continue to exist as well. An important reason for this situation is that the correlation dimension method, used as a nonlinear determinism identification tool in most of those studies, may possess certain limitations when applied to real river flow series, which are always finite and often short and also contaminated with noise (e.g. measurement error). In view of this, the present study addresses the issue of nonlinear determinism in river flow series using prediction as a possible indicator. This is done by (1) reviewing studies that have employed nonlinear deterministic methods (coupling phase‐space reconstruction and local approximation techniques) for river flow predictions and (2) identifying nonlinear determinism (or linear stochasticity) based on the level of prediction accuracy in general, and on the prediction accuracy against the phase‐space reconstruction parameters in particular (termed as the ‘inverse approach’). The results not only provide possible indications to the presence of nonlinear determinism in the river flow series studied, but also support, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the low correlation dimensions reported for such. Therefore, nonlinear deterministic methods are a viable complement to linear stochastic ones for studying river flow dynamics, if sufficient caution is exercised in their applications and in interpreting the outcomes. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.