山西省主要河流流域面雨量预报业务流程

以T213、HLAFS模式、MM5中尺度模式输出的格点资料以及日本降水量格点资料为基础，将影响山西降水的天气动力模型归纳为诊断模型，从中引出多个能够全面反映降水模型特征的综合物理因子；根据各种数值模式输出的降水量预报性能和质量优劣特点，依据数值模式的形势场预报优于要素场预报的现实，构造在不同环流形势背景下，启动不同预报方程的面雨量预报业务流程，有效地遏止了在环流形势调整时预报输出不能快速响应的弱点，提高了点和面雨量预报的准确度。     

鄂尔多斯盆地中生代晚期以来大地热流的变化及其对生态环境格局和演变的影响

鄂尔多斯盆地的西北部、东北部和南部三个区域现今大地热流平均值分别为56．3、67．3和65．3mW／m^2，对应的生态环境格局也有明显的差异。研究表明，大地热流每增加4～5mW／m^2可使年均地表温度升高约l℃，使最低月均地表温度升高2。C以上。鄂尔多斯盆地东北部的平均大地热流比西北部高出11mW／m^2，东北部年均地表温度可能比西北部高出2～3℃，其最低月均地表温度可能比西北部高出4～6℃。西北部的大地热流平均值已经低于维持地表生态系统延续所需大地热流的临界值(57mW／m^2)，其自然生态系统整体上已经处于脆弱境地；东北部和南部的大地热流均大于57mW／m^2，自然生态系统均尚较稳健。东北部的沙漠化可能是风沙侵入的结果，其生态应该是可以恢复的。整个西北部作为一个整体看，72万年以前大地热流就已衰减到临界值以下，区域生态系统渐趋脆弱，开始整体上向荒漠化演变。     

大渡河次级支流斯合沟泥石流特征研究

泥石流作为地质环境较差、的山区的主要自然灾害之一，对它的研究尤其是泥石流规律方面的研究已取得了较大的成绩。但是对于泥石流的研究思路却有待进一步发展和完善，这在很大程度上将对山区的工程建设有很重要的指导意义。论文从工程地质研究思路的角度出发，对位于大渡河支流官料河上某水电站下闸址区的斯合沟泥石流进行了研究。文中采用工程地质分析的方法对大渡河次级支流斯台沟泥石流的形成环境(地层岩性条件、构造条件、地貌条件、气象条件、植被发育及人类活动)、基本特征(泥石流沟的基本特征、泥石流的堆积特征)进行了系统的研究，提出了该泥石流的形成演化过程及其机制模型(初期是堰塞式沟谷型泥石流，后期逐渐转向汇聚式沟谷型泥石流)。并在此基础上对泥石流沟沿岸的岸坡稳定性(可能泥石流的物源)等进行了评价分析。将定性分析和定量分析相结合，对泥石流的活动趋势以及可能泥石流的体积(未来泥石流形成将主要是在面蚀和沟蚀作用下的坡面泥石流。泥石流规模较小，且由于沟谷中下游坡降的进一步减缓，形成的泥石流物质一般将沿途停积．实际进入官料河内的体积很小)做出了较为科学的评价预测。经过这样的系统分析对工程建设中的泥石流防治有着积极的指导意义。     

碎屑流沿坡面运动的初步分析

本文分析了碎屑流沿坡面下滑过程中的运动特性,重点考察了床面摩擦系数、土体内摩擦角和坡角对碎屑流堆积形态的影响.     

Rainfall induced debris flows in pyroclastic deposits, Campania (southern Italy)

A combination of empirical and physically based hydrological models has been used to analyze historical data on rainfall and debris-flow occurrence in western Campania, to examine the correlation between rainfall and debris-flow events.

Rainfall data from major storms recorded in recent decades in western Campania were compiled, including daily series from several rain gauges located inside landslide areas, supplemented by hourly rainfall data from some of the principal storms.

A two-phase approach is proposed. During phase 1, soil moisture levels have been modelled as the hydrological balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration, on a daily scale, using the method of Thornthwaite [Geograph. Rev. 38 (1948) 55].

Phase 2 is related to the accumulation of surplus moisture from intense rainfall, leading to the development of positive pore pressures. These interactions take place on an hourly time scale by the “leaky barrel” (LB) model described by Wilson and Wiezoreck [Env. Eng. Geoscience, 1 (1995) 11]. In combination with hourly rainfall records, the LB model has been used to compare hydrological effects of different storms. The critical level of retained rain water has been fixed by the timing of debris-flow activity, related to recorded storm events.

New rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation in western Campania are proposed. These thresholds are related to individual rain gauge and assume a previously satisfied field capacity condition. The new thresholds are somewhat higher than those plotted by previous authors, but are thought to be more accurate and thus need less conservatism.     

A size classification for debris flows

A 10-fold classification for debris flow size is proposed based on total volume, peak discharge and area inundated by debris. Size classes can be used for regional overview studies where detailed site investigations are either unnecessary, too costly or where the highest hazard and risk creeks need to be identified for further study. They are also useful to compare the regional impact between affected areas and the effects of rainstorms, and they allow lay-people to obtain an understanding of debris flow magnitude and consequences. Finally, different size classes allow the estimation of travel times to points of interest based on empirically derived equations. It is proposed that agencies concerned with debris flows should establish a documentation of debris flow size according to this classification, which serves as a data base for hazard and risk planning.     

Temporal and spatial variations in water flow and sediment load in Narmada River Basin, India: natural and man-made factors

The Narmada River flows through the Deccan volcanics and transports water and sediments to the adjacent Arabian Sea. In a first-ever attempt, spatial and temporal (annual, seasonal, monthly and daily) variations in water discharge and sediment loads of Narmada River and its tributaries and the probable causes for these variations are discussed. The study has been carried out with data from twenty-two years of daily water discharge at nineteen locations and sediment concentrations data at fourteen locations in the entire Narmada River Basin. Water flow in the river is a major factor influencing sediment loads in the river. The monsoon season, which accounts for 85 to 95% of total annual rainfall in the basin, is the main source of water flow in the river. Almost 85 to 98% of annual sediment loads in the river are transported during the monsoon season (June to November). The average annual sediment flux to the Arabian Sea at Garudeshwar (farthest downstream location) is 34.29×10⁶ t year⁻¹ with a water discharge of 23.57 km³ year⁻¹. These numbers are the latest and revised estimates for Narmada River. Water flow in the river is influenced by rainfall, catchment area and groundwater inputs, whereas rainfall intensity, geology/soil characteristics of the catchment area and presence of reservoirs/dams play a major role in sediment discharge. The largest dam in the basin, namely Sardar Sarovar Dam, traps almost 60–80% of sediments carried by the river before it reaches the Arabian Sea.     

甘肃陇南市武都区小水沟泥石流治理防治工程

2008年"5.12"汶川特大地震对甘肃省陇南市造成了严重危害。震后次生地质灾害对陇南市城镇村庄、交通和人民群众生命财产安全造成严重威胁。武都区蒲池乡小水沟震后产生了大量的崩塌、滑塌堆积体,一旦遭遇暴雨,极易发生泥石流灾害,直接危及小水沟沟口左岸九年制义务学校一座及沟口两岸居民,因此治理该泥石流沟是十分必要的。通过对当地暴雨特征、地层岩性、地质构造、泥石流固体物质源及形成的踏勘,针对该泥石流具有危险度高,流量大的特点,执行全面规划、重点治理的设计思路,采取了防护、生物工程相结合的综合防治措施。拦挡工程为有效发挥工程泻洪、拦渣、调节、固床、稳坡和控制固体物质补给量,预防沟道下切及沟壑发展,减少泥石流对下游村庄危害,起到了积极作用;生物工程的主要作用是稳固堤前砂土、减缓水石流流速、减小水石流对护堤的直接冲蚀和破坏、保障堤内居民生命财产安全和耕地的正常使用、增大植被覆盖率,绿化环境等。