National contributions to climate change mitigation from agriculture: allocating a global target

Globally, agriculture and related land use change contributed about 17% of the world’s anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2010 (8.4 GtCO₂e yr^?1), making GHG mitigation in the agriculture sector critical to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 2°C goal. This article proposes a range of country-level targets for mitigation of agricultural emissions by allocating a global target according to five approaches to effort-sharing for climate change mitigation: responsibility, capability, equality, responsibility-capability-need and equal cumulative per capita emissions. Allocating mitigation targets according to responsibility for total historical emissions or capability to mitigate assigned large targets for agricultural emission reductions to North America, Europe and China. Targets based on responsibility for historical agricultural emissions resulted in a relatively even distribution of targets among countries and regions. Meanwhile, targets based on equal future agricultural emissions per capita or equal per capita cumulative emissions assigned very large mitigation targets to countries with large agricultural economies, while allowing some densely populated countries to increase agricultural emissions. There is no single ‘correct’ framework for allocating a global mitigation goal. Instead, using these approaches as a set provides a transparent, scientific basis for countries to inform and help assess the significance of their commitments to reducing emissions from the agriculture sector.

Key policy insights

• Meeting the Paris Agreement 2°C goal will require global mitigation of agricultural non-CO₂ emissions of approximately 1 GtCO₂e yr^?1 by 2030.

• Allocating this 1 GtCO₂e yr^?1 according to various effort-sharing approaches, it is found that countries will need to mitigate agricultural business-as-usual emissions in 2030 by a median of 10%. Targets vary widely with criteria used for allocation.

• The targets calculated here are in line with the ambition of the few countries (primarily in Africa) that included mitigation targets for the agriculture sector in their (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions.

• For agriculture to contribute to meeting the 2°C or 1.5°C targets, countries will need to be ambitious in pursuing emission reductions. Technology development and transfer will be particularly important.

     

The accountability imperative for quantifying the uncertainty of emission forecasts: evidence from Mexico

Governmental climate change mitigation targets are typically developed with the aid of forecasts of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. The robustness and credibility of such forecasts depends, among other issues, on the extent to which forecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to quantify the uncertainty associated with projections of gross domestic product growth rates for Mexico, a key driver of GHG emissions in the country. We use those projections to produce probabilistic forecasts of GHG emissions for Mexico. We contrast our probabilistic forecasts with Mexico’s governmental deterministic forecasts. We show that, because they fail to reflect such key uncertainty, deterministic forecasts are ill-suited for use in target-setting processes. We argue that (i) guidelines should be agreed upon, to ensure that governmental forecasts meet certain minimum transparency and quality standards, and (ii) governments should be held accountable for the appropriateness of the forecasting approach applied to prepare governmental forecasts, especially when those forecasts are used to derive climate change mitigation targets.

POLICY INSIGHTS

• No minimum transparency and quality standards exist to guide the development of GHG emission scenario forecasts, not even when these forecasts are used to set national climate change mitigation targets.

• No accountability mechanisms appear to be in place at the national level to ensure that national governments rely on scientifically sound processes to develop GHG emission scenarios.

• Using probabilistic forecasts to underpin emission reduction targets represents a scientifically sound option for reflecting in the target the uncertainty to which those forecasts are subject, thus increasing the validity of the target.

• Setting up minimum transparency and quality standards, and holding governments accountable for their choice of forecasting methods could lead to more robust emission reduction targets nationally and, by extension, internationally.

     

MEOS海上光电监视系统

主要介绍 MEOS海上光电监视系统的组成方案和系统工作原理、系统总体方案设计思想。同时还讨论了目标特性与作用距离之间的关系 ,给出试验所获得的主要技术指标 ,总结了系统主要技术特点。     

Demand vs supply-side approaches to mitigation: What final energy demand assumptions are made to meet 1.5 and 2 °C targets?

Today’s climate policies will shape the future trajectory of emissions. Consumption is the main driver behind recent increases in global greenhouse gas emissions, outpacing savings through improved technologies, and therefore its representation in the evidence base will impact on the success of policy interventions. The IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR1.5) summarises global evidence on pathways for meeting below-2 °C targets, underpinned by a suite of scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs). We explore how final energy demand is framed within these, with the aim to making demand-related assumptions more transparent, and evaluating their significance, feasibility, and use or underutilisation as a mitigation lever. We investigate how the integrated assessment models compensate for higher and lower levels of final energy demand across scenarios, and how this varies when mitigating for 2 °C and 1.5 °C temperature targets through an analysis of (1) final energy demand projections, (2) energy-economy relationships and (3) differences between energy system decarbonisation and carbon dioxide removal in the highest and lowest energy demand pathways. We look across the full suite of mitigation pathways and assess the consequences of achieving different global carbon budgets. We find that energy demand in 2100 in the highest energy demand scenarios is approximately three to four times higher than the lowest demand pathways, but we do not find strong evidence that 1.5 °C-consistent pathways cluster on the lower end of demand levels, particularly when they allow for overshoot. The majority of demand reductions happen pre-2040, which assumes absolute decoupling from economic growth in the near-term; thereafter final energy demand levels generally grow to 2100. Lower energy demand pathways moderately result in lower renewable energy supply and lower energy system investment, but do not necessarily reduce reliance on carbon dioxide removal. In this sense, there is more scope for IAMs to implement energy demand reduction as a longer-term mitigation lever and to reduce reliance on negative emissions technologies. We demonstrate the need for integrated assessments to play closer attention to how final energy demand interacts with, relates to, and can potentially offset supply-side characteristics, alongside a more diverse evidence base.     

走向《巴黎协定》温升目标：已经在路上

目前欧盟、中国、日本、韩国、加拿大,以及南非等国家或地区,已经公布了温室气体中和或者碳中和的目标,如果加上很可能很快也会提出碳中和目标的美国,全球有可能近70%的CO₂排放的国家或地区提出碳中和的目标。由于这些国家或地区是全球技术主导和经济主导地,因而全球2050年左右实现碳中和具有可行性。2050年左右实现碳中和,即和《巴黎协定》2℃目标,甚至和其1.5℃温升目标下的减排路径相一致。研究表明实现2050年左右碳中和有其可行性,实现该目标需要更多的技术创新,未来将是各个国家技术竞争和经济竞争阶段。     

流形群运动目标自动识别与跟踪技术研究——以MCS自动追踪方法为例

从流形群运运目标的形状特征及其本质属性出发，提出了多种适合计算机自动识别与跟踪流形群运运目标的匹配模板的构建技术。充分顾及流形群运动目标的区域整体描述、几何形状特征、不变矩特性，以及流形群目标的本质属性(纹理特征)，通过最大欧几里得贴近度的择近原则，实现模板匹配，完成目标识别；通过交替更新匹配模板元素参量及交叉匹配算法，实现目标跟踪。应用这种算法，对1998年6月至8月的青藏高原上空中尺度对流系统(MCS)进行了识别与跟踪实验。实验结果表明，这种技术较适合计算机自动识别和跟踪类似MCS的流形群运动目标，与专家目测屏幕扫描跟踪法相比，准确率达90％。同Amaud等人提出的面积重叠跟踪法相比，其准确率提高了一个多数量级。     

关于发展我国高精度工业摄影测量的几个问题

本文在分析国内外工业摄影测量现状的基础上，总结高精度工业摄影测量的四项关键技术，并结合一些试验，对发展我国相应领域的工作提出了具体建议。     

松南气田火山岩致密储层分类及有利目标潜力评价

松南气田属于致密火山岩气藏。根据松南气田大量火山岩气井产能测试数据,以气井产能为依据进行分类,并分别统计它们的岩性、密度、声波时差、孔隙度、渗透率、阻抗范围,建立松南气田致密火山岩储层的分类标准。在此基础上,利用岩心、铸体薄片和扫描电镜,识别不同类型储层的宏观、微观孔隙-裂缝组合特征,研究不同类型火山岩储层的孔隙-裂缝发育模式。并进一步根据储层类型、地震反演孔渗参数,探讨了大型火山岩气藏潜力目标区优选方法。松南气田火山岩储层可分为I类未措施高产、II类措施后高产、Ⅲ类未措施不出气、Ⅳ类致密层四类。四类储层对应四种储层发育模式:I类储层为原生孔+微裂缝型,II类储层为次生孔+微裂缝型,Ⅲ类储层为原生孔+构造裂缝型,Ⅳ类储层为次生孔+构造裂缝型。潜力优选研究表明,YS1断块2号、3号目标体具有一定的开发潜力。储层分类更适合于本区致密储层的实际生产情况。     

Signal detectability of marine electromagnetic methods in the exploration of resistive targets

We compare selected marine electromagnetic methods for sensitivity to the presence of relatively thin resistive targets (e.g., hydrocarbons, gas hydrates, fresh groundwater, etc.). The study includes the conventional controlled‐source electromagnetic method, the recently introduced transient electromagnetic prospecting with vertical electric lines method, and the novel marine circular electric dipole method, which is still in the stage of theoretical development. The comparison is based on general physical considerations, analytical (mainly asymptotic) analysis, and rigorous one‐dimensional and multidimensional forward modelling. It is shown that transient electromagnetic prospecting with vertical electric lines and marine circular electric dipole methods represent an alternative to the conventional controlled‐source electromagnetic method at shallow sea, where the latter becomes less efficient due to the air‐wave phenomenon. Since both former methods are essentially short‐offset time‐domain techniques, they exhibit a much better lateral resolution than the controlled‐source electromagnetic method in both shallow sea and deep sea. The greatest shortcoming of the transient electromagnetic prospecting with vertical electric lines and marine circular electric dipole methods comes from the difficulties in accurately assembling the transmitter antenna within the marine environment. This makes these methods significantly less practical than the controlled‐source electromagnetic method. Consequently, the controlled‐source electromagnetic method remains the leading marine electromagnetic technique in the exploration of large resistive targets in deep sea. However, exploring laterally small targets in deep sea and both small and large targets in shallow sea might require the use of the less practical transient electromagnetic prospecting with vertical electric lines and/or marine circular electric dipole method as a desirable alternative to the controlled‐source electromagnetic method.