Joint Implementation in Ukraine: national benefits and implications for further climate pacts

The contribution that no-lose target schemes for non-Annex I (NAI) countries could make to achieve the 2°C target is explored by accounting for the incentives of 18 NAI countries’ participation in no-lose target schemes. Using various scenarios, it is shown that implementing uniform no-lose targets as part of the burden-sharing will not lead to global emissions levels compatible with the 2°C target, because uniform no-lose targets will only be beneficial to a few NAI countries. Employing more lenient uniform no-lose targets or individual no-lose targets for large emitters could increase participation by NAI countries and decrease global emissions, global compliance costs, rents by NAI countries, and compliance costs for Annex I (AI) countries. However, the resulting global emissions levels will not be compatible with attaining the 2°C target. Achieving this target will require more stringent emissions targets for AI countries and more lenient no-lose targets for NAI countries. As such, no-lose targets should account for 20% to 47% of global emissions reductions, while due to emissions trading around two-thirds of global emissions reductions should be realized in NAI countries. Indeed, an effective solution may only require no-lose targets for five to seven of the largest NAI countries.

Policy relevance

No-lose targets are one of a number of instruments discussed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change New Market Mechanism to integrate NAI countries in global emissions reduction efforts. In contrast to binding reduction targets, which apply penalties if a target is not met, no-lose targets provide incentives for meeting a target, e.g. in the form of excess emissions certificates that can be sold on the global carbon market. The presented simulations show that no-lose targets can result in contributions from NAI countries to global emissions reduction efforts. However, the simulations also show that the necessary incentives for no-lose targets need to be adjusted. AI countries require more ambitious targets and NAI countries require less ambitious no-lose targets than proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Effective no-lose targets may only be required for five to seven of the largest NAI countries.     

The emperor's new clothes: redressing the Kyoto Protocol

Abstract

US President Bush repudiated the Kyoto Protocol because, in his view, it is ‘fatally flawed in fundamental ways’. This paper evaluates seven proposals to redress the protocol according to their potential to deal with three key issues that have reinforced US intransigence: hot air, cost uncertainty and developing country participation. It argues that negotiations on intensity targets hold the most promise. Because intensity targets limit hot air, but do not limit economic growth, and a high variance of carbon intensity exists among countries with similar GDP per capita, intensity targets based on best practice levels might be agreeable to developing countries and the US. If a protocol specifying such targets were implemented, less warming would be associated with larger world GDP than would otherwise be the case, and countries' carbon intensity and emissions per capita would tend to converge to best practice levels at every stage of development.     

Global implementation of marine protected areas: Is the developing world being left behind?

While the global network of marine protected areas (MPAs) has recently been evaluated in the light of bio-geographic targets, there has been no attempt to evaluate the relative conservation efforts made by the different nations with regards to their level of socio-economic development. Using information mostly gathered from the world database on protected areas (WDPA), this paper gives a comparative assessment of MPA progress in countries from different economic categories, ranging from advanced economies to least developed countries (LDCs). Potentially explanatory socio-economic and environmental factors, such as fishing activity and existence of vulnerable marine ecosystems, for variability between nations in the level of MPA implementation are also explored. Existing MPA databases demonstrate a clear gap between developed and developing nations in MPA establishment, with advanced economies accounting for two thirds of the global MPA network. Patterns of MPA use, however, remain extremely heterogeneous between countries within each development group. International agreements on marine conservation, above and beyond the influence of country socio-economic and environmental profiles, are identified as a stimulating factor to MPA implementation. The level dependence on marine resource extraction appears to impede MPA implementation, though the relationship is not statistically significant due to large heterogeneity among countries. Leading developed nations increasingly use MPAs to designate integrated and adaptive management areas, and implementation of large “no-take” reserves in relatively-pristine overseas areas continues to accelerate. These analyses highlight certain limitations regarding our ability to assess the true conservation effectiveness of the existing global MPA network and the need for improved indicators of MPA restrictions and management efforts.     

单标三角高程法跨河水准测量设计与实验分析

针对现行规范中2 km以上距离的三角高程法跨河水准测量应采用双觇板的规定,进行了单标三角高程法跨河水准测量的观测设计,并通过实验与双标三角高程法及已知高差进行比较分析。结果表明:单标三角高程法可用于2 km以上距离的跨河水准测量,其半测回中的垂直角观测组数宜增至双标法的2倍。     

基于高边坡垂直特征线下双目标三角高程精度解析

从边坡沉降监测实际数据,可以看出若采用基于高边坡垂直特征线下双目标三角高程观测,在选择了有利的观测条件,并进行差分计算后,可以有效地消除或减弱大气折光带来的误差,相对没有进行动态改正的单向观测(按0.14的经验折光系数进行修正)结果,精度提高比较明显。本方法所需设备条件简单,具有测量方便、精度高和安全实用特点。     

实数编码加速遗传算法在GPS变形监测单历元求解中的应用

提出了一种基于实数编码加速遗传算法( RAGA)和模糊度直接计算的GPS变形监测单历元求解新算法.该方法以模糊度函数为适应度评价函数,采用自适应变化率的交叉算子和变异算子对监测点的坐标进行全局最优搜索.当监测点的坐标误差小于某一阈值时,采用直接计算法可固定双差模糊度,实现单历元解算.实例验证该算法具有快速、稳健和可靠等特点,具有一定的实际应用价值.     

青海多彩当江地区水系沉积物元素地球化学结构特征及找矿方向

青海多彩当江地区位于三江多金属成矿带,具有较好的找矿前景。以该区1∶5万水系沉积物地球化学测量数据为研究对象,结合研究区内的米扎纳能铜-铅-锌多金属矿床的水系沉积物地球化学结构特征与地质特征进行了剖析,总结了研究区的地质-地球化学找矿标志,并提出了龙格东多铜-锌多金属找矿远景区,为该区的找矿工作提供了新方向。     

广东永梅坳陷南段成矿区构造特征及找矿方向

永梅坳陷南段是粤东地区重要的成矿区，银铜多金属矿床的产出严格受地洼阶段形成的断裂构造控制；通过对该区构造层与成矿关系研究，阐述了成矿的构造基本特征和地洼阶段构造活动控矿的规律，指出了找矿方向。     

城市化主要对象与最低经济门槛作用机制在中国的五次偏离

目前很多学者从宏观角度运用历史分析法分析中国城市化滞后现象得出了丰硕的成果，但从微观角度运用比较分析法，把中国城市化进程放在世界坐标中进行研究，亦另有所得：中国城市化滞后的重要原因在于中国工业弱质化，就业支柱产业的转换落后产值支柱产业，人口规模庞大和国民收入分配不公，而使流动人口经济收入过低，达不到城市物价水平，偏离了城市化主要对象与最低经济门槛的作用机制，导致居住在城市的流动人口无法跨过城市化的最低经济门槛顺利城市化。因而，中国要大力发展传统产业，解决流动人口的住房和子女教育问题，重新分配国民收入，恢复这一机制在中国的正常运转，才能加速中国城市化进程。