辽宁测震台网地震观测报告质量分析

就地震分布、震相质量、深度分布以及地震震级等,对辽宁测震台网2010-2017年地震观测报告进行分析,得到辽宁地区地震波主要震相的平均传播速度,分别为：Pn震相平均传播速度为7.87 km/s,Pg震相平均传播速度为4.48 km/s,Sn震相平均传播速度为4.48 km/s,Sg震相平均传播速度为3.56 km/s,认为引起震相走时偏差较大的主要原因为地震定位误差及震相不易识别。     

Raingauge network optimization in a tropical urban area by coupling cross-validation with the geostatistical technique

An adequate and reliable raingauge network is essential for observing rainfall data in hydrology and water resource applications. A raingauge network developed for a catchment area is commonly extended periodically to increase data accuracy. Due to financial constraints, the network is reviewed for the optimal number of stations. A new optimization approach is developed in this study by coupling a cross-validation technique with a geostatistical method for raingauge network optimization to prioritize raingauge stations. The spatial interpolation error of the spatial rainfall distribution, measured as the root mean square error (E_rms) optimization criterion is applied to a raingauge network in a tropical urban area. The results indicate that this method can successfully optimize the number of rainfall stations in an existing raingauge network, as the stations are prioritized based on their importance in the network.     

基于洪水预报系统误差反演的多河段联合校正方法

提出一种基于洪水预报误差系统反演的多河段联合校正方法.采用马斯京根法矩阵方程描述多河段多区间入流的河道汇流过程,基于动力系统反演理论建立洪水预报误差的递推方程,最后利用修正后的多河段状态变量经演算得到预报断面的洪水过程,进而达到多河段联合校正目的.对大渡河上游的应用示例结果表明：多河段联合校正方法考虑了河系中断面间的水力联系及预报误差在时程上的传递规律,可充分利用上游多断面实测和校正信息进行下游预报断面的误差修正,因此具有更高的校正精度和稳定性.     

Archival photogrammetric analysis of river–floodplain systems using Structure from Motion (SfM) methods

In this study we evaluate the extent to which accurate topographic data can be obtained by applying Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetric methods to archival imagery. While SfM has proven valuable in photogrammetric applications using specially acquired imagery (e.g. from unmanned aerial vehicles), it also has the potential to improve the precision of topographic data and the ease with which can be produced from historical imagery. We evaluate the application of SfM to a relatively extreme case, one of low relative relief: a braided river–floodplain system. We compared the bundle adjustments of SfM and classical photogrammetric methods, applied to eight dates. The SfM approach resulted in data quality similar to the classical approach, although the lens parameter values (e.g. focal length) recovered in the SfM process were not necessarily the same as their calibrated equivalents. Analysis showed that image texture and image overlap/configuration were critical drivers in the tie‐point generation which impacted bundle adjustment quality. Working with archival imagery also illustrated the general need for the thorough understanding and careful application of (commercial) SfM software packages. As with classical methods, the propagation of (random) error in the estimation of lens and exterior orientation parameters using SfM methods may lead to inherent systematic error in the derived point clouds. We have shown that linear errors may be accounted for by point cloud registration based on a reference dataset, which is vital for the further application in quantitative morphological analyses when using archival imagery. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Event and model dependent rainfall adjustments to improve discharge predictions

Most conceptual rainfall–runoff models use as input spatially averaged rainfall fields which are typically associated with significant errors that affect the model outcome. In this study, it was hypothesised that a simple spatially and temporally averaged event-dependent rainfall multiplier can account for errors in the rainfall input. The potentials and limitations of this lumped multiplier approach were explored by evaluating the effects of multipliers on the accuracy and precision of the predictive distributions. Parameter sets found to be behavioural across a range of different flood events were assumed to be a good representation of the catchment dynamics and were used to identify rainfall multipliers for each of the individual events. An effect of the parameter sets on identified multipliers was found; however, it was small compared to the differences between events. Accounting for event-dependent multipliers improved the reliability of the predictions. At the cost of a small decrease in precision, the distribution of identified multipliers for past events can be used to account for possible rainfall errors when predicting future events. By using behavioural parameter sets to identify rainfall multipliers, the method offers a simple and computationally efficient way to address rainfall errors in hydrological modelling.     

一种卫星钟差精度评估方法

GNSS观测量测量的是测站与卫星间的相对时间延迟,卫星钟差求解的是相对于基准钟的相对钟差,因此卫星钟差的精度评估方法不同于其他GNSS产品。分析了卫星钟差的精度评估方法,采用消除卫星钟系统偏差的方法进行钟差精度的评估,得到的各产品的精度评定结果与各产品公布的钟差精度基本一致,证明了此方法的有效性。     

An optimized use of limited ground based topographic data for river applications

A prime requirement for hydrological applications,such as sediment budgeting or numerical modelling,is that produced Digital Terrain Models(DTMs)accurately represent the shape of landforms,especially for river reaches where data are not homogeneous.DTM error is a function of data point measurement accuracy and density and also of the field survey strategy when limited amounts of data will be acquired.This paper aims to advance the importance of the field survey strategy for the specific,but common cases,where only limited topographic data will be available.This methodology is based on the idea that any feature can be properly described by a set of cross sections and breaklines describing both main and secondary directions of the flow.Then,a longitudinal linear interpolation can be applied to the defined homogeneous zones.This morphologically oriented(MO)method that includes data acquisition strategy and interpolation,was validated using a reference DTM derived from LiDAR measurements.An estimation of the uncertainties also is suggested based on the distance of the nearest point and the local slope using a geographically weighted regression.The proposed MO method is typically applicable to Alpine river reaches characterized by multiple channels that may always be underwater and not navigable such as an alternate bar system with secondary and transverse channels.     

SS-Y型伸缩仪观测问题分析及优化方法探讨

SS-Y型伸缩仪在我国地震洞体形变监测台网中已安装使用多年。对地球固体潮观测而言,仪器观测资料精度高且长期稳定性较好,但从地震预测的观测需求来看,SS-Y型伸缩仪仍然存在很多不足,如高频信息缺失、抗干扰能力较弱、存在格值误差、自校验能力较差等。对伸缩仪存在的问题进行分析,并提出一种超宽频带短基线伸缩仪的设计思路,以期为后续新仪器的研制提供理论依据。     

Using model error in response history analysis to evaluate component calibration methods

This research is part of a larger effort to better understand and quantify the epistemic model uncertainty in dynamic response-history simulations. This paper focuses on how calibration methods influence model uncertainty. Structural models in earthquake engineering are typically built up from independently calibrated component models. During component calibration, engineers often use experimental component response under quasi-static loading to find parameters that minimize the error in structural response under dynamic loading. Since the calibration and the simulation environments are different, if a calibration method wants to provide optimal parameters for simulation, it has to focus on features of the component response that are important from the perspective of global structural behavior. Relevance describes how efficiently a calibration method can focus on such important features. A framework of virtual experiments and a methodology is proposed to evaluate the influence of calibration relevance on model error in simulations. The evaluation is demonstrated through a case study with buckling-restrained braced frames (BRBF). Two calibration methods are compared in the case study. The first, highly relevant calibration method is based on stiffness and hardening characteristics of braces; the second, less relevant calibration method is based on the axial force response of braces. The highly relevant calibration method consistently identified the preferable parameter sets. In contrast, the less relevant calibration method showed poor to mediocre performance. The framework and methodology presented here are not limited to BRBF. They have the potential to facilitate and systematize the improvement of component-model calibration methods for any structural system.     

地动噪声RMS值计算方法的适用性及误差概率分析

对比两种计算RMS值的方法,结合误差概率统计给出结果的误差概率分布。在使用有限脉冲响应（FIR）带通滤波器进行滤波并计算RMS值的过程中,滤波器窗口函数和阶数是影响计算结果误差的主要因素,其中阶数的作用更大。通过计算功率谱密度（PSD）反算RMS值的误差主要受pwelch函数的窗口函数类型、窗口长度及重叠率等参数影响,其中窗口长度作用更大。从同等误差水平的概率分布看,在合理设置参数的前提下,使用PSD反算RMS值的方法更优。