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961.
根据张家口地震台记录的1998年张北早期地震序列资料,对其显著余震(系指ML≥4.0,下同)建立了GM(1,1)动态灰色预测模型,并进而依此模型对张北震区主震后,短时内连续发生的5次显著余震进行了尝试性现场预测,结果与实事较吻合,表明灰色预测方法对于探讨如何简捷有效地预测地震序列早期强余震问题,可能具有一定的实际意义。 相似文献
962.
地震前兆信息量的研究:(一)地震异常延续有效性的研究 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
根据我国大陆58个Ms≥5级地震的震列资料,详细地研究了地震异常延续有效时间与持续时间的相关关系,给出了由地震异常持续时间计算地震异常预测的有效时间(即地震异常延续有效时间的最优估值)的公式,经多种数理统计方法检验,证明这一公式是保信、可用的。这为进一步深入开发的震异常前兆信息量的研究奠定了基础,同时也为日常地震会商中常震确定地震异常延续有效性问题,提供了定量分析判定依据,因此本研究具有一定的实际 相似文献
963.
Onkari Prasad Sant Prasad Kanti Prasad R. R. Kelkar 《Journal of Earth System Science》1998,107(1):5-18
Moisture profiles have been estimated over the region bounded by the latitudes 40°N and 40°S and longitudes 30°E to 130°E
using INSAT digital infra red cloud imagery data. The representativeness of these profiles in representing moisture field
associated with the development and movement of synoptic scale systems during the period September 15th, 1996 to March 31st,
1997 has been examined. It has been shown that the changes in the moisture field associated with the withdrawal of the southwest
and northeast monsoons from the Indian sub-continent, development and movement of synoptic scale sytems (depressions, tropical
cyclones and waves in easterlies) and equatorial troughs in the Indian Ocean could be clearly seen in humidity profiles. The
initial development of tropical systems is first seen in the humidity field in the upper troposphere. These profiles could
be used in monitoring the initial development and subsequent movement of tropical systems. Further the data on moisture distribution
from the data gap regions of the Indian Ocean could be used as an additional source of moisture in numerical analysis and
prognosis. 相似文献
964.
965.
966.
多维标度法在矿产预测中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
在矿产预测中常涉及一些定性变量,对这些变量的分析和应用,必须将定性描述的地质特征转化为用数值表示的变量,这就需要处理此问题的方法——多维标度法。笔者介绍了计量性的Torgerson法、准计量性的林知已夫数量化理论和非计量性多维标度法,并列举了其在矿产预测中的应用实例。 相似文献
967.
用历史类比法对中国强震活动的概率预测 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文将20世纪全球强震活动划分为7个活动期,以国内中强以上地震同期活动资料进行比较,对未来国内强震活动趋势作出中期的统计概率预测,似乎可以作为一个较为有力的判据。 相似文献
968.
A review of rock mechanics studies in the United States pertinent to earthquake prediction 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
J. Byerlee 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1978,116(4-5):586-602
Premonitory phenomena such as dilatancy, creep, acoustic emission, and changes in seismic velocity and attenuation, electrical resistivity, magnetic moment, and gas emission, which occur before fracture of initially intact rock and before stick-slip on faults or between finely ground surfaces of rock, have been reviewed and discussed in relation to earthquake prediction. This review is restricted to the results of laboratory experiments that have been carried out in the United States of America. 相似文献
969.
Many geothermal anomalies are intersected by vertical fault zones (narrow zones of fractured material with large effective permeability). These conduits are probably responsible for much of the upwelling of hot water from depth. This paper considers a shallow aquifer intersected by a vertical fault. The fluid flow in the aquifer is numerically modeled as a two-dimensional problem. It is observed that the temperature distribution in the aquifer is governed primarily by lateral flow of hot water supplied from the intersecting vertical fault and only secondarily by conduction. The numerical results also provide a possible explanation for the local temperature maxima and inversions occasionally observed in borehole measurements. The present model is an alternative to that based on mushroom-shaped isotherm distributions found in high Rayleigh number large-scale circulation cell calculations. 相似文献
970.
W. R. McCann S. P. Nishenko L. R. Sykes J. Krause 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1979,117(6):1082-1147
The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long- and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps.In detail, however, the distribution of large shallow earthquakes along convergent plate margins is not always consistent with a simple model derived from plate tectonics. Certain plate boundaries, for example, appear in the long term to be nearly aseismic with respect to large earthquakes. The identification of specific tectonic regimes, as defined by dip of the inclined seismic zone, the presence or absence of aseismic ridges and seamounts on the downgoing lithospheric plate, the age contrast between the overthrust and underthrust plates, and the presence or absence of back-arc spreading, have led to a refinement in the application of plate tectonic theory to the evaluation of seismic potential.The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best.The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These categories range from what we consider high to low potential for being the site of large earthquakes during that period of time. Categories 1, 2 and 6 define a time-dependent potential based on the amount of time elapsed since the last large earthquake. The remaining categories, 3, 4, and 5, are used for areas that have ambiguous histories for large earthquakes; their seismic potential is inferred from various tectonic criteria. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified.Several of the segments of major plate boundaries that are assigned the highest potential, i.e., category 1, are located along continental margins, adjacent to centers of population. Some of them are hundreds of kilometers long. High priority should be given to instrumenting and studying several of these major seismic gaps since many are now poorly instrumented. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning prorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution No. 2906. 相似文献