我国期气候预测的业务技术发展

概述了我国短期气候预测技术和业务现代化发展的历史，分析了“九五”以来我国短期气候预测技术的新进展，探讨了未来短期气候预测技术发展的几个主要问题。     

Sectoral targets for developing countries: combining ‘common but differentiated re-sponsibilities’ with ‘meaningful participation’

Although a global cap-and-trade system is seen by many researchers as the most cost-efficient solution to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the governments of developing countries refuse to enter into such a system in the short term. Many scholars and stakeholders, including the European Commission, have thus proposed various types of commitments for developing countries that appear less stringent, such as sectoral approaches. A macroeconomic assessment of such a sectoral approach is provided for developing countries. Two policy scenarios in particular are assessed, in which developed countries continue with Kyoto-type absolute commitments, while developing countries adopt an emissions trading system limited to electricity generation and linked to developed countries' cap-and-trade systems. In the first scenario, CO₂ allowances are auctioned by the government, which distributes its revenues as a lump sum to households. In a second scenario, the auction revenues are used to reduce taxes on, or to give subsidies to, electricity generation. The quantitative analysis, conducted with a hybrid general equilibrium model, shows that such options provide almost as much emissions reduction as a global cap-and-trade system. Moreover, in the second sectoral scenario, GDP losses in developing countries are much lower than with a global cap-and-trade system, as is also the effect on the electricity price.     

The Interannual Variability of Climate in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

In this paper, the interannual variability simulated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP CGCM) in 40 year integrations is analyzed, and compared with that by the corresponding IAP AGCM which uses the climatic sea surface temperature as the boundary condition in 25 year integrations.The mean climatic states of January and July simulated by IAP CGCM are in good agreement with that by IAP AGCM, i.e., no serious ‘climate drift’ occurs in the CGCM simulation. A comparison of the results from AGCM and CGCM indicates that the standard deviation of the monthly averaged sea level pressure simulated by IAP CGCM is much greater than that by IAP AGCM in tropical region. In addition, both Southern Oscillation (SO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be found in the CGCM simulation for January, but these two oscillations do not exist in the AGCM simulation.The interannual variability of climate may be classified into two types: one is the variation of the annual mean, another is the variation of the annual amplitude. The ocean-atmosphere interaction mainly increases the first type of variability. By means of the rotated EOF, the most important patterns corresponding to the two types of interannual variability are found to have different spatial and temporal characteristics.     

不同气候背景下我国冬夏两季极端气温特征分析

利用全国175个测站1960—1999年间的日平均气温资料,分别选取1960—1989年(气候态A)、1970—1999年(气候态B)作为气候背景,采用蒙特卡洛显著性检验法检验了这两个气候态背景下我国冬夏两季季节平均气温的差异显著性。并在此基础上利用气候百分位法分别分析了在这两个气候态背景下2000—2010年间我国冬夏两季的极端气温特征。分析结果表明,相对于夏季,冬季气候态A、B背景下季节平均气温的差异更为显著。冬夏两季,我国大部分地区极端低温事件的发生频率相对较低,而极端高温事件的发生频率相对较高。由于气候态B包含了全球变暖特征最为显著的20a,故在气候态B背景下,冬夏两季极端低(高)温事件的发生频率要高(低)于气候态A,这与全球变暖的趋势相吻合。     

山东省远距离热带气旋暴雨研究

应用1971—2003年的山东降水资料、常规天气图资料、台风年签和NCEP资料,对在华沿海登陆和活动的热带气旋在山东造成远距离暴雨的气候特征进行统计分析,对环流形势场进行合成分析。建立了山东省远距离热带气旋暴雨的天气学模型。分别计算分析了山东有和无远距离热带气旋暴雨合成的水汽和温湿能的收支。结果表明：在华南沿海登陆和活动的热带气旋与西风带环流系统和副热带高压相互作用在山东造成的远距离热带气旋暴雨年均2.5次。暴雨的范围广、强度大。出现暴雨的时间比热带气旋登陆时间滞后。在山东造成远距离暴雨的热带气旋在华南沿海登陆时,中心东部有一股东南风或偏南风低空急流指向内陆。中高纬度中低层西风带环流弱,位置偏北。500 hPa西风带中的偏北气流与副高边缘的偏南气流在山东境内汇合。低层850—700 hPa伴有低值系统影响,山东为气旋性环流控制。热带气旋登陆后其中心附近的中低层偏南风急流向北伸展,绕过副高脊线直达山东。在台风中心附近至山东之间建立起水汽和温湿能的输送通道,把高温高湿的暖湿空气源源不断地向山东输送。在台风登陆后12—48小时内,山东暴雨区上空有大量的水汽和温湿能的净流入。暖湿气流与西风带气流相汇合,产生辐合上升,造成暴雨。     

中国冷冬的气候研究

 2008年1月中国发生了低温、雨雪、冰冻天气,对南方的交通、通讯和输电等造成了严重的影响,也极大地提高了人们研究冷冬的兴趣。气候资料表明,这个冬季的温度负距平可能接近或小于冷冬的标准（-1.5℃）,远低于寒冬的标准（-2.5℃）。但是,这是1977年以来最冷的冬季。近千年的资料表明,寒冬之后,夏季在中国出现东部多雨或北方多雨的概率会超过气候值。温度分布的EOF分析表明,2008年1月的温度变化可能是年际变化的反映,因此,未来短时间内再次出现这种类型冷冬的可能性不大。     

河西走廊地质历史中宋辽干冷期灾变事件及其影响

宋辽寒冷干旱期的急剧降温,使河西地区降水量迅速减少,气候变得更为干旱。植被枯萎,风暴、沙暴、尘暴、火灾、旱灾、饥荒等灾害事件频繁发生,从而引发了一系列生态环境问题和战争动乱,对中国政治、社会、经济、文化产生重大影响。依据历史资料和考古研究成果及地质记录中“事件标志层”层位、年代,确定宋辽寒冷干旱期发生于公元1000~1050年,发展于公元1050~1100年,强盛于公元1100~1320年,消亡于公元1320~1335年。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Marine Resources of Kuwait: Their Role in the Development of Non-oil Resources . Fatimah H. Y. al -Abdul -Razzak Recollections of a Revolution: Geography as Spatial Science . Mark Billinge , Derek Gregory and Ron Martin Entre l'Eden et l'Utopie . Luc Bureau Developments in Political Geography . M. A. Busteed The Elements of Graphing Data . William S. Cleveland Rural Resource Management . Paul J. Cloke and Chris C. Park Third World Atlas . Ben Crow and Alan Thomas Exploitation, Conservation, Preservation: A Geographic Perspective on Natural Resource Use . Susan L. Cutter , Hilary Lambert Renwick, and William H. Renwick . Wine Regions of the Southern Hemisphere . Harm Jan de Blij Regional Development: Problems and Policies in Eastern and Western Europe . George Demko The Geographer at Work . Peter R. Gould Change in the Amazon Basin . John Hemming Geography Since the Second World War . R. J. Johnston and P. Claval Urbanization in China: Town and Countryside in a Developing Economy 1949–2000 A.D. , R. J. R. Kirkby Transport and Communications for Pacific Microstates: Issues in Organisation and Management . Christopher C. Kissling Fluvial Forms and Processes . David Knighton The Urban Millennium . Josef W. Konvitz Technological Transition in Cartography . Mark Stephen Monmonier Field Guide to Soils and the Environment: Applications of Soil Surveys . Gerald W. Olson Northern Australia: The Arenas of Life and Ecosystems on Half a Continent . Don Parkes A Killing Rain: The Global Threat of Acid Rain . Thomas Pawlick From the Family Farm to Agribusiness: The Irrigation Crusade in California and the West, 1850–1931 . Donald J. Pisani Hybrid Maize Diffusion in Kenya . Franz -Michael Rundquist Warning and Response to the Mount St. Helens Eruption . Thomas F. Saarinen and James L. Sell Coastal Geomorphology in Australia . B. G. Thom Tropical Rain Forests of the Far East , 2nd ed . T. C. Whitmore The Dark Side of the Earth . Robert Muir Wood Categorical Data Analysis for Geographers and Environmental Scientists , Neil Wrigley     

SEDIMENT BUDGETS AND RATES OF SEDIMENT TRANSFER ACROSS COLD ENVIRONMENTS IN EUROPE: A COMMENTARY

The sediment mass balance equation is the fundamental concept which underpins most sediment budget studies in cold climate environments. In these environments the interchange between water and ice plays a predominant geomorphological role. Such environments show a large variety of geomorphic processes which are conditioned by both contemporary environmental conditions but also the legacy of past events. In the northern Europe/Arctic fringe these cold regions are distributed in a fragmented fashion and are likely to be very sensitive to climate change scenarios. The significance of such changes for sediment transfer can only be established if we have good contemporary process understanding, the necessary tools to carefully monitor and model such changes, and can apply such methods at appropriate scales which integrate both sediment sources and sinks.