Forecasting Quasi-stationary Front Rainstorm in Southeast China Using Synthetically Multilevel Analog Forecast Technology

The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing mean vacant-forecast rate method,which pos-sesses many advantages with regard to filtering the analog term.Moreover,the similitude degree between samples is assessed using a combination of meteorological elements,which works better than that described using a single element in earlier analog forecast studies.Based on these techniques,the authors apply the model output,air sounding,surface observation and weather map data from 1990 to 2002 to perform an analog experiment of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.The most important re-sults are as follows:(1) The forecast successful index is 0.36,and was improved after the forecast model was re-vised.(2) The forecast precise rate (0.59) and the lost-forecast rate (0.33) are also better than those of other methods.(3) Based on the model output data,the syn-thetically multilevel analog forecast technology can pro-duce more accurate forecasts of a quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(4) Optimal analog elements reveal that trig-gering mechanisms are located in the lower troposphere while upper level systems are more important in main-taining the phase of the rainstorm.These variables should be first taken into account in operational forecasts of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(5) In addition,experi-ments reveal that the position of the key zone is mainly decided by the position of the system causing the heavy rainfall.     

一种新型粘滞阻尼材料的试验研究

粘滞阻尼材料是粘滞阻尼器的重要组成部分,其性能直接影响阻尼器的各项性能指标。本文研制了一种新型的粘滞阻尼材料,并通过各项试验对其高温下的热稳定性、化学安定性、耐久性、安全性及动态力学性能进行了深入研究。试验表明,本文研制的粘滞阻尼材料具有安全、稳定、耐久性好、耗能能力强等特点,可满足结构耗能构件的要求。     

天山北坡经济带可持续发展能力的综合评价

通过选取经济、社会、生态环境三方面24个与天山北坡经济带11个市县可持续发展密切相关的原始指标．通过因子分析对原始指标进行两级降维处理,最后得到3个综合指标。根据综合得分的数值对天山北坡经济带可持续发展能力进行排序,从高到低依次为：克拉玛依市、乌鲁木齐市、石河子市、乌苏市、奎屯市、米泉市、沙湾县、昌青市、阜康市、玛纳斯县、呼图壁县。结合地域特征划分出3类可持续发展类型区：（1）综合经济实力型和工业经济主导型“强”可持续发展地区;（2）工业经济与农业经济均衡型“中”可持续发展地区;（3）农业经济主导型“弱”可持续发展地区。并对各类型区可持续发展能力的构成因素进行了分析。同时对天山北坡经济带的可持续发展提出了一些建议。     

已建城市排水管网的排涝能力评估方法

以SWMM 模型为平台构建已建城市区域排涝模型,以广州市芳村高尔夫地块为研究区域,基于研究区域实测降雨、径流等资料对模型进行参数率定和验证,模拟在不同暴雨重现期下已建城市区域雨水管网的排涝能力。研究结果表明：该区域遭遇2 a 一遇暴雨时,J14、J15 和J31 等3 个排水节点出现积水;当遭遇5 a 一遇时,J15 片区和J31 节点出现较为严重的积水,其中J15 和J31 节点积水量分别达到1 674、546 m³;积水时间分别为0.5、0.4 h。针对研究区域排水管网排涝能力偏低的现状,建议结合LID（Low Impact Development）措施,削减暴雨洪峰流量,提高区域排涝能力。文章构建的已建城市排水管网排涝能力评估方法,可识别区域主要积水黑点及管道满流管段,提供了一种动态、定性和定量评估排水管网能力的方法。     

新一轮土地更新调查复合要素空间差异判别技术

新一轮土地利用现状更新调查不仅大幅提升了数据的精度要求,将调查比例尺提高到1∶2000,而且强化了数据的更新检查机制,对过程有具体严格的要求。本文研究土地更新调查复合要素空间匹配与差异判别技术,提出了一种基于缓冲区膨胀的多尺度矢量空间数据匹配方法：一方面空间特征继承大比例尺地形地籍数据的高精度,属性特征集成多尺度的利用和权属现势信息,实现尺度间同名地物的有效融合;另一方面实现国家下发变化图斑与更新后土地利用调查现势图斑的计算机差异比较,确保更新过程严格、规范、自动化程度高。     

提升甘肃地震应急指挥系统服务能力的措施和思考

考虑地震应急工作的特点、应急指挥系统的技术现状,以及政府部门应急决策的需求,结合2013年甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震应急响应的全面总结,提出了提升甘肃地震应急指挥系统服务能力的几点措施和思考。     

Progress in refining the global radiocarbon calibration curve using New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) tree-ring series from Oxygen Isotope Stage 3

Ancient kauri (Agathis australis) buried in bogs across Northland, New Zealand, provide potential for a continuous high-precision radiocarbon calibration curve that extends to the full chronologic range of the dating method. Here we report four new tree-ring series which in addition to previous work represent some 5312 years across Oxygen Isotope Stage 3, a period during which human evolution, migration and extinction took place against a backdrop of extreme and abrupt global climate and environmental change. We compare our radiocarbon-dated series against three different calibration datasets and find considerable differences in the wiggle-matched solutions, demonstrating the difficulty in undertaking high-precision correlation between ice, marine and terrestrial sequences. One way around the apparent impasse is the use of ¹⁰Be in the Greenland and Antarctic ice cores to precisely link to kauri ¹⁴C from which a decadally/bidecadally-resolved floating ‘calibration’ dataset can be generated.     

基于多源遥感影像快速更新基础地理信息技术的研究

在对多源遥感影像数据快速匹配处理、影像最佳波段组合和融合方法及更新信息变化发现识别技术进行研究试验的基础上,提出了基于多源遥感影像快速更新基础地理信息的技术方法和工艺流程。     

一种具有双目立体量测功能工业内窥镜的设计与系统集成

介绍一款自行设计,具有量测功能的新型工业内窥镜系统。该系统有4个组成部分:视频采集部分、数据传输部分、数据处理及终端显示部分。基于双目立体摄影测量原理,设计一套具有量测功能的软件,初步实现量测功能,并能对管道内壁等人眼无法触及到的区域进行检测。     

一种改进的Marchal地图匹配算法

目前导航系统主要使用的是矢量地图,这种地图的更新周期比较长,新修的道路无法及时在地图上体现出来,使用这种不完整的地图进行地图匹配往往会导致错误的结果。为了解决此问题,本文提出了改进的Marchal匹配算法,并结合影像导航中的遥感影像对匹配信息进行实时反馈,实验结果表明,该算法可以较好地纠正矢量数据不完整时产生的错误,很大程度上提高了匹配的准确性,弥补了矢量地图导航时的不足,可以为影像导航系统提供保障服务。