AN EXPERIMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK

Obvious results have been achieved in the forecast of typhoon track that is improved with a consensus procedure Forecast experiments were conducted with the analogue model (TSF) and the Markov type model (MTSF)that are widely used and the results show that there has been significant increase in the capability of forecasting with the improvement by the consensus procedure.     

台风路径及闽南台风天气预报业务系统

该文应用ＨＵＲＲＡＮ相似台风路径预报方法，引进５００ｈＰａ天气形势，提高了台风咱径预报能力；应用天气学方法、物理量诊断和预报员的丰富实践经验，以及卫星云图上的台风云系特征，研制台风影响下的闽南台风天气（大风、暴雨）预报专家系统，得出定量、客观的预报结论。该系统运行所需的资料易于获取，从采集资料到输出预报结果，１０分钟便可完成，大大缩短了制作台风预报的时间。     

台风路径数值预报模式的并行化及路径预报误差分析

国家气象中心台风路径数值预报模式经过串行优化及程序并行, 成功地实现了在国产超级计算机神威上的并行运算, 并可满足业务时效要求。基于并行程序及神威机计算平台的台风路径数值预报业务系统于2002年6月30日投入实时运行, 其初估场与侧边界条件从T106L19模式产品升级为T213L31模式产品 (称为基于T213台风预报系统, 原串行系统称为基于T106台风预报系统)。通过对2002年夏秋季台风路径的检验, 总体来看, 基于T213台风预报系统48 h内的平均路径预报误差小于基于T106台风预报系统的路径预报误差。对西行及西北行登陆的台风, 基于T106台风预报系统的48 h预报好于基于T213台风预报系统的预报。对于转向台风而言, 转向后的预报, 基于T213台风预报系统的预报要好于基于T106台风预报系统的预报, 有效地减小了基于T106台风预报系统对转向台风路径预报的系统性误差:即台风转向后预报路径较实况路径偏西。     

水牛蹄型深海集矿机履齿设计及牵引性能研究

作为深海采矿系统的重要组成部分,深海集矿机的技术研究和开发一直是许多国家的难题。为了提高深海集矿机在稀软沉积物上的牵引性能,基于水牛蹄的曲面结构特征和特殊几何结构,设计了一款仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿。以该款履齿的结构参数为研究对象,通过对朗肯被动土压力理论的优化,得到了仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿的牵引力解析解,建立了对应的履齿仿生参数对履齿牵引力的影响公式。结合正交试验方法进行了不同形式履齿在沉积物上运动的单、多履齿剪切试验,将仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿与直型履齿、仿水牛蹄轮廓履齿（另一种仿生履齿）进行对比试验,并通过模型车试验验证了该款履齿的可行性。结果表明：3种履齿中,仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿提供的最大牵引力最高。研究可为进一步优化仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿结构参数和提高深海稀软底质机械的牵引性能提供参考依据。     

建立特殊条件下导向钻孔轨迹跟踪和控制的数学模型

建立了在特殊场地条件下,利用雷达探测仪对非开挖钻孔轨迹跟踪和控制的数学模型。在工程实践中,结合计算机技术,利用这个数学模型提供的方法,可以更有效地对非开挖导向钻孔轨迹进行跟踪和控制。     

峪耳崖金矿的成矿时代裂变径迹研究

通过峪耳崖金矿含矿岩体中的锆石、磷灰石裂变径迹分析,揭示了自中生代燕山期以来峪耳崖地区经历了频繁、多期次的热液活动,且与峪耳崖金矿的形成密切相关.锆石、磷灰石的裂变径迹年龄显示,金矿成矿时代主要为115~200Ma,成矿下限为82 Ma.其中,115~190 Ma是主要的成矿时期.成矿流体作用遍及整个岩体;流体的运移受到构造制约,具有NE-SW延伸的趋势;成矿流体具深部来源以及在地表水的参与下成矿.峪耳崖金矿的形成,与当时整个中国东部的动力学背景有关.     

Rainfall–runoff responses on Arctic hillslopes underlain by continuous permafrost,North Slope,Alaska, USA

The Arctic hydrologic cycle is intensifying, as evidenced by increased rates of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and riverine discharge. However, the controls on water fluxes from terrestrial to aquatic systems in upland Arctic landscapes are poorly understood. Upland landscapes account for one third of the Arctic land surface and are often drained by zero‐order geomorphic flowpath features called water tracks. Previous work in the region attributed rapid runoff response at larger stream orders to water tracks, but models suggest water tracks are hydrologically disconnected from the surrounding hillslope. To better understand the role of water tracks in upland landscapes, we investigated the surface and subsurface hydrologic responses of 6 water tracks and their hillslope watersheds to natural patterns of rainfall, soil thaw, and drainage. Between storms, both water track discharge and the water table in the hillslope watersheds exhibited diel fluctuations that, when lagged by 5 hr, were temporally correlated with peak evapotranspiration rate. Water track soils remained saturated for more of the summer season than soils in their surrounding hillslope watersheds. When rainfall occurred, the subsurface response was nearly instantaneous, but the water tracks took significantly longer than the hillslopes to respond to rainfall, and longer than the responses previously observed in nearby larger order Arctic streams. There was also evidence for antecedent soil water storage conditions controlling the magnitude of runoff response. Based on these observations, we used a broken stick model to test the hypothesis that runoff production in response to individual storms was primarily controlled by rainfall amount and antecedent water storage conditions near the water track outlet. We found that the relative importance of the two factors varied by site, and that water tracks with similar watershed geometries and at similar landscape positions had similar rainfall–runoff model relationships. Thus, the response of terrestrial water fluxes in the upland Arctic to climate change depends on the non‐linear interactions between rainfall patterns and subsurface water storage capacity on hillslopes. Predicting these interactions across the landscape remains an important challenge.     

Low-temperature constraints on the Alpine thermal evolution of the Western Carpathian basement rock complexes

The Cretaceous to Palaeogene Alpine exhumation of previously buried Variscan basements is recorded in the southern portion of the Western Carpathians in the Gemeric and Veporic units. The Meso-Cenozoic collisional processes resulted in basement exhumation of the Tatric Unit from Palaeogene to Neogene times. According to zircon and apatite fission track data, the Gemeric Unit, an uppermost thick-skinned thrust sheet, cooled from depth levels of ∼10 up to 2.5 km (temperature interval of ∼250–60 °C) about 88–64 Ma ago, after the collapse of overlying Meliata-Turňa-Silica Mesozoic accretionary prism. The middle and lower thick-skinned thrust sheets, Veporic and Tatric units, cooled from the depths of ∼10 up to 2.5 km ∼110–40 Ma ago. The process was controlled by unroofing of footwall from beneath the Gemeric Unit. About 50–20 Ma ago, the internal zone of Tatric Unit gradually exhumed to depth of <2 km and some parts of the unit appeared at the surface level. However, the external zone of Tatric Unit was buried beneath the Eocene to Lower Miocene sedimentary successions and exhumed to the subsurface level at ∼21–8 Ma ago, as a result of oblique collision of the Western Carpathians with the European Platform.     

Exhumation history of the Peake and Denison Inliers: insights from low-temperature thermochronology

Multi-method thermochronology applied to the Peake and Denison Inliers (northern South Australia) reveals multiple low-temperature thermal events. Apatite fission track (AFT) data suggest two main time periods of basement cooling and/or reheating into AFT closure temperatures (～60–120°C); at ca 470–440 Ma and ca 340–300 Ma. We interpret the Ordovician pulse of rapid basement cooling as a result of post-orogenic cooling after the Delamerian Orogeny, followed by deformation related to the start of the Alice Springs Orogeny and orocline formation relating to the Benambran Orogeny. This is supported by a titanite U/Pb age of 479 ± 7 Ma. Our thermal history models indicate that subsequent denudation and sedimentary burial during the Devonian brought the basement rocks back to zircon U–Th–Sm/He (ZHe) closure temperatures (～200–150°C). This period was followed by a renewal of rapid cooling during the Carboniferous, likely as the result of the final pulses of the Alice Springs Orogeny, which exhumed the inlier to ambient surface temperatures. This thermal event is supported by the presence of the Mount Margaret erosion surface, which indicates that the inlier was exposed at the surface during the early Permian. During the Late Triassic–Early Jurassic, the inlier was subjected to minor reheating to AFT closure temperatures; however, the exact timing cannot be deduced from our dataset. Cretaceous apatite U–Th–Sm/He (AHe) ages coupled with the presence of contemporaneous coarse-grained terrigenous rocks suggest a temporally thermal perturbation related with shallow burial during this time, before late Cretaceous exhumation cooled the inliers back to ambient surface temperatures.     

Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.