预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

青藏高原腹地湖泊沉积对第四纪晚期古季风变化的响应

通过对青藏高原腹地的综合科学考察和对中心钻孔岩芯剖面的最新研究,用层序地层学与年代地层学和气候地层学相结合的方法,分辨出可可西里地区湖泊沉积记录(孔深7.25 m)的第四纪晚期距今3万余年以来的古气候变化,沉积物磁化率等因子综合表征的高原古季风变化是波动发展的,发生在仙女木期地质环境事件中的季风活动具有强烈暴发的特点,是高原季风发展中的突变事件,而且地表热点效应对其起到了激发作用。综合分析的研究成果表明,它的变化频谱与激变因子及其运行机制是伴随着青藏高原地质效应的演变而发展的,为研究第四纪冰消期以来的气候变化提供了新的信息。     

Fluid sources for the La Guitarra epithermal deposit (Temascaltepec district, Mexico): Volatile and helium isotope analyses in fluid inclusions

The La Guitarra deposit (Temascaltepec district, South-Central Mexico), belongs to the low/intermediate sulfidation epithermal type, has a polymetallic character although it is currently being mined for Ag and Au. The mineralization shows a polyphasic character and formed through several stages and sub-stages (named I, IIA, IIB, IIC, IID, and III). The previous structural, mineralogical, fluid inclusion and stable isotope studies were used to constrain the selection of samples for volatile and helium isotope analyses portrayed in this study. The N₂/Ar overall range obtained from analytical runs on fluid inclusion volatiles, by means of Quadrupole Mass Spectrometry (QMS), is 0 to 2526, and it ranges 0 to 2526 for stage I, 0 to 1264 for stage IIA, 0 to 1369 for stage IIB, 11 to 2401 for stage IIC, 19 to 324 for stage IID, and 0 to 2526 for stage III. These values, combined with the CO₂/CH₄ ratios, and N₂-He-Ar and N₂-CH₄-Ar relationships, suggest the occurrence of fluids from magmatic, crustal, and shallow meteoric sources in the forming epithermal vein deposit. The helium isotope analyses, obtained by means of Noble Gas Mass Spectrometry, display R/Ra average values between 0.5 and 2, pointing to the occurrence of mantle-derived helium that was relatively diluted or “contaminated” by crustal helium. These volatile analyses, when correlated with the stable isotope data from previous works and He isotope data, show the same distribution of data concerning sources for mineralizing fluids, especially those corresponding to magmatic and crustal sources. Thus, the overall geochemical data from mineralizing fluids are revealed as intrinsically consistent when compared to each other.The three main sources for mineralizing fluids (magmatic, and both deep and shallow meteoric fluids) are accountable at any scale, from stages of mineralization down to specific mineral associations. The volatile and helium isotope data obtained in this paper suggest that the precious metal-bearing mineral associations formed after hydrothermal pulses of predominantly oxidized magmatic fluids, and thus it is likely that precious metals were carried by fluids with such origin. Minerals from base-metal sulfide associations record both crustal and magmatic sources for mineralizing fluids, thus suggesting that base metals could be derived from deep leaching of crustal rocks. At the La Guitarra epithermal deposit there is no evidence for an evolution of mineralizing fluids towards any dominant source. Rather than that, volatile analyses in fluid inclusions suggest that this deposit formed as a pulsing hydrothermal system where each pulse or set of pulses accounts for different compositions of mineralizing fluids.The positive correlation between the relative content of magmatic fluids (high N₂/Ar ratios) and H₂S suggests that the necessary sulfur to carry mostly gold as bisulfide complexes came essentially from magmatic sources. Chlorine necessary to carry silver and base metals was found to be abundant in inclusion fluids and although there is no evidence about its source, it is plausible that it may come from magmatic sources as well.     

Memories of Fire: Eduardo Galeano and the Geography of Guatemala

In Memory of Fire, a poetic narration of the history of the Americas from pre-Columbian times to the late 20th century, Eduardo Galeano furnishes readers with over 1200 of his trademark vignettes, some 35 of which pertain to Guatemala. Galeano evokes disparate aspects of the geography of Guatemala, past and present, in grounded miniatures of time, place, and episode. His sketches of the experiences of Maya peoples allow us to see them as survivors of three cycles of conquest: (1) conquest by imperial Spain; (2) conquest by local and international capitalism; and (3) conquest by state terror. Composed in the literary mode of creative non-fiction, Memory of Fire serves as an inspirational classroom text, exposing students not only to factual detail but also a powerful artistic imagination.     

Exposure ages from relict lateral moraines overridden by the Fennoscandian ice sheet

Lateral moraines constructed along west to east sloping outlet glaciers from mountain centred, pre-last glacial maximum (LGM) ice fields of limited extent remain largely preserved in the northern Swedish landscape despite overriding by continental ice sheets, most recently during the last glacial. From field evidence, including geomorphological relationships and a detailed weathering profile including a buried soil, we have identified seven such lateral moraines that were overridden by the expansion and growth of the Fennoscandian ice sheet. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al exposure ages of 19 boulders from the crests of these moraines, combined with the field evidence, are correlated to episodes of moraine stabilisation, Pleistocene surface weathering, and glacial overriding. The last deglaciation event dominates the exposure ages, with ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al data derived from 15 moraine boulders indicating regional deglaciation 9600 ± 200 yr ago. This is the most robust numerical age for the final deglaciation of the Fennoscandian ice sheet. The older apparent exposure ages of the remaining boulders (14,600-26,400 yr) can be explained by cosmogenic nuclide inheritance from previous exposure of the moraine crests during the last glacial cycle. Their potential exposure history, based on local glacial chronologies, indicates that the current moraine morphologies formed at the latest during marine oxygen isotope stage 5. Although numerous deglaciation ages were obtained, this study demonstrates that numerical ages need to be treated with caution and assessed in light of the geomorphological evidence indicating moraines are not necessarily formed by the event that dominates the cosmogenic nuclide data.     

Fracture analysis in the south-western Corinth rift (Greece) and implications on fault hydraulic behavior

This paper reviews the data concerning the fracture network and the hydraulic characteristics of faults in an active zone of the Gulf of Corinth. Pressure gap measured through fault planes shows that in this area the active normal faults (Aigion, Helike) act, at least temporarily and locally, as transversal seal. The analysis of the carbonate cements in the fractures on both the hangingwall and the footwall of the faults also suggests that they have acted as local seals during the whole fault zone evolution. However, the pressure and the characteristics of the water samples measured in the wells indicate that meteoric water circulates from the highest part of the relief to the coast, which means it goes through the fault zones. Field quantitative analysis and core studies from the AIG-10 well have been performed to define both regional and fault-related fracture networks. Then laboratory thin section observations have been done to recognize the different fault rocks characterizing the fault zone components. These two kinds of approach give information on the permeability characteristics of the fault zone. To synthesize the data, a schematic conceptual 3D fluid flow modeling has been performed taking into account fault zone permeability architecture, sedimentation, fluid flow, fault vertical offset and meteoric water influx, as well as compaction water flow. This modeling allows us to fit all the data with a model where the fault segments act as a seal whereas the relays between these segments allow for the regional flow from the Peloponnese topographic highs to the coast.     

Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

Uniaxial compression and tension tests of anthracite and loading rate dependence of peak strength

The mechanical characteristics of coal under uniaxial compressive stress and uniaxial tensile stress are key factors in investigations of the stability of galleries and coal faces, and are vital considerations for the efficient design of coalmines, disaster prevention, and environmental preservation. These mechanical characteristics have long been a topic of research, but remain insufficiently understood. In this study we performed uniaxial compression tests and uniaxial tension tests on coal, with particular attention to two concerns. The first was to measure the loading rate dependence of the peak strength of coal. Coal shows high sample-to-sample scatter in strength; test methods that are successful in comparatively homogeneous rock types cannot be used for coal. We therefore used an alternative test method that was recently developed by the authors. Anthracite samples were subjected to alternating slow and fast strain rates. Measured variations in stress during this process were used to estimate the loading rate dependence of peak strength. The second objective was to obtain complete stress–strain curves for coal under uniaxial tensile stress. It is difficult to hold samples secure during a tensile test; consequently, such curves have yet to be obtained. This study presents a successful application of the authors' method to the analysis of coal samples, yielding a complete stress–strain curve under tensile stress. The two methods presented here hold promise for application not only to anthracite but also to a wide variety of coals. It is possible to derive the values of the constants used in constitutive equations from the obtained experimental results. Once these equations are determined, they can be incorporated into finite-element software to investigate various time-dependent behaviors of coal and aid in the efficient design of coalmines and the prevention of subsidence and mine disasters.     

Effects of irrigation on geochemical processes in a paddy soil and in ground waters in Camargue (France)

In waterlogged soils, dynamics of water influence the redox conditions and thus the mobility of elements. Irrigation of rice in Camargue (South eastern France) induces yearly dynamics of water. In order to determine the impact of irrigation on the geochemical properties of ground waters, a continuously in situ record of physico-chemical parameters (pH, Eh, temperature and electric conductivity) is performed during 1 year in an irrigated rice field. Seasonal dynamics show large Eh and pH variations. An annual irrigation cycle generates fast precipitations of Ca–Mg carbonates and Fe oxides between 50 and 110 cm depth when the soil is waterlogged. The dissolution of these minerals is initiated during a year without irrigation.     

Measurement of the total nitrogen in lake sediments： Comparison and its environmental significance

Nitrogen cycle is an important bio-geochemical process in the environment. Measurement of the total nitrogen （TN） is a routine experiment in agriculture, biology and environmental sciences. The Kjeldahl method （KM） and elemental analyzer method （EA） are both commonly used to determine TN. Total nitrogen by EA is the sum of nitrate （NO3）, nitrite （NO2）, organic nitrogen and ammonia. Total nitrogen by KM （TKN） is made up of both organic nitrogen and ammonia. A comparative study focused on the two methods is conducted by analysis of TN in 97 samples from the sediment sequence of Gouchi, a salt lake in North China. KM presents a higher degree of accuracy than EA with a standard deviation of 0.007 vs. 0.024. With the presence of nitrate and/or nitrite nitrogen, however, measurement by KM is considerably lower than that by EA. Therefore, for samples from lake sediment sequences or soils in North China, KM is inapplicable to determining TN because of usually high contents of nitrous salt. Despite the inconsistency, use of both methods to the same samples makes sense in reconstructions of climatic and environmental changes from lake sediments. In Lake Gouchi, the contents of nitrate and nitrite nitrogen vary from 1.40% in the lower part of the sequence to 14.77% in the uppermost part, suggesting a gradual evolution process from a fresh water lake to the present-day salt lake.