1991、1998和2016年三个大水年长江中下游夏季降水季节内特征的对比

针对长江中下游三个大水年1991、1998和2016年,利用NCEP/NCAR大气环流再分析资料和CMAP降水资料,对比了夏季降水的季节内特征,分析了引起降水季节内变化的大气环流季节内振荡ISO演变及源地。小波分析表明,三年季节内降水周期差异明显,分别为20～30 d、20～40 d和10～20 d。随之,以东亚季风区季节内振荡指数及热带外Rossby波活动通量,诊断了引起三年季节内活动异常的热带和中纬度ISO变率特点。结果显示影响三年季节内降水的ISO差异较大。1991年受到来自印度洋10～30 d和中纬度高层Rossby波10～30 d的ISO共同影响,造成周期为20～30 d的低频降水;1998年ISO来源路径单一,受中北太平洋30～60 d和10～30 d的ISO西传叠加作用,降水表现为20～40 d的振荡;引起2016年季节内降水异常的ISO源地较多,既有来自印度洋向东北传播30～60 d的ISO,又有来自太平洋向西北传播10～30 d的ISO,还有来自热带外10～30 d的ISO,三者在长江中下游汇合,引起降水10～20 d的振荡。研究结果对认识长江中下游夏季集中降水的形成...     

气象上寒潮天气两种不同统计方法的探讨

文章使用多伦县2001—2010年寒潮天气统计资料,分析了当地寒潮变化特征,通过对寒潮统计两种不同方法从降温特征、大气环流特征及地表覆盖几个方面进行分析,得出如下结论:按日最低气温降温幅度统计寒潮天气出现次数明显多于按日平均气温降温幅度统计寒潮天气出现的次数,尤其在初冬和冬末季节日最低气温变化比日平均气温变化幅度更加剧烈。     

Western Arctic Cyclones and Equilibrium between the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and the Sea Surface

The data-collection campaign for the 2008 International Polar Year–Circumpolar Flaw Lead System Study saw the Canadian Coast Guard Ship (CCGS) Amundsen, a research icebreaker, overwinter in high-concentration unconsolidated sea ice in Amundsen Gulf. Environmental monitoring continued into the open-water season. During this period, the Amundsen registered five relatively deep mean sea-level pressure minima (less than 100?kPa). Three were selected for further analysis based on season and the nature of the underlying ocean or sea-ice surface: (1) a winter pressure minimum over unconsolidated sea ice, (2) a spring pressure minimum which likely contributed to the break-up of the sea-ice cover on Amundsen Gulf, and (3) a summer pressure minimum over open water. The characteristics of these pressure minima and the impact of their passage on the atmospheric boundary layer and on the sea-ice cover as they crossed Amundsen Gulf were examined. Several features were revealed by the analysis. (1) The winter and summer pressure minima were migratory cyclones accompanied by Arctic frontal waves with characteristics very similar to the polar frontal waves associated with the migratory cyclones found at more southerly latitudes, whereas the spring pressure minimum was attributed to an Arctic frontal trough of low pressure with the cyclonic centre remaining south of the Gulf. (2) The passage of the frontal-wave cyclone in winter and the frontal trough of low pressure in spring disrupted the equilibrium that had been established during more settled periods between the atmospheric boundary layer and the mosaic surface (leads, polynyas, and sea ice); however, equilibrium was quickly re-established. (3) In summer, the thermal structure of the lower atmospheric boundary layer persisted through the passage of the frontal-wave cyclone over the open-water surface. (4) The passage of the frontal-wave cyclone in winter and the frontal trough of low pressure in spring modified the mesoscale sea-icescape.     

Carbonyl Sulphide (OCS) Variability with Latitude in the Atmosphere

Abstract

Carbonyl sulphide (OCS) is an important precursor of sulphate aerosols and consequently a key species in stratospheric ozone depletion. The SPectromètre InfraRouge d'Absorption à Lasers Embarqués (SPIRALE) and shortwave infrared (SWIR) balloon-borne instruments have flown in the tropics and in the polar Arctic, and ground-based measurements have been performed by the Qualité de l'Air (QualAir) Fourier Transform Spectrometer in Paris. Partial and total columns and vertical profiles have been obtained to study OCS variability with altitude, latitude, and season. The annual total column variation in Paris reveals a seasonal variation with a maximum in April–June and a minimum in November–January. Total column measurements above Paris and from SWIR balloon-borne instrument are compared with several MkIV measurements, several Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) stations, aircraft, ship, and balloon measurements to highlight the OCS total column decrease from tropical to polar latitudes. OCS high-resolution in situ vertical profiles have been measured for the first time in the altitude range between 14 and 30?km at tropical and polar latitudes. OCS profiles are compared with Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) satellite measurements and show good agreement. Using the correlation between OCS and N₂O from SPIRALE, the OCS stratospheric lifetime has been accurately determined. We find a stratospheric lifetime of 68?±?20 years at polar latitudes and 58?±?14 years at tropical latitudes leading to a global stratospheric sink of 49?±?14?Gg?S?y^?1.     

On the nonlinear dynamics of the boundary layer of intense atmospheric vortex

The paper describes a stationary model of the boundary layer of a large-scale vortex. The model takes into account two types of nonlinearities: (1) advection of the momentum and centrifugal accelerations, that is related to large values of the Rossby number; (2) a nonlinear turbulent friction on the lower boundary (generally speaking, not only quadratic, but also more complicated). Nevertheless, the model may be studied analytically. This approach allows discovery and analysis of several universal regularities, which are not revealed by numerical modeling. The model provides the actual values for the speed of the surface wind and the angle of cross-isobar surface flow in the tropical cyclones.     

CAM3模式模拟厄尔尼诺事件对大气环流异常的影响

采用CAM3（Community Atmosphere Model Version3）模式中海气湍流通量参数化原方案和改进方案,利用观测海温驱动CAM3模式进行气候模拟,以分析模式对厄尔尼诺事件影响气候变化的模拟能力。结果表明,采用CAM3模式海气湍流通量参数化改进方案,模式能够更好地模拟出由厄尔尼诺事件引起的北太平洋和北美地区大气环流的变化,尤其是对厄尔尼诺年冬季阿留申低压强度和与PNA遥相关型有关的500hPa位势高度异常的模拟。     

“六淫”致病的科学性及定量标准探讨

《黄帝内经》将气象学中的风、寒、暑、湿、燥、火（热）6种气象现象的太过、不及或非时之候而影响人体病变的发生,又将人体疾病症候状况分成上述6种类似气象现象的类型统称“六淫”。前者为外感疾病病因分类,后者为症候分类。于是,“六淫”就 有了双重含义。对“六淫”的科学含义及其定量标准进行了探讨。     

我国夏季降水及相关大气环流场未来变化的预估及不确定性分析

利用政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告(IPCCAR4)的15个耦合气候模式在不同排放情景下的模拟结果,对我国夏季降水及相关大气环流场的未来时空变化特征与模式之间的不确定性作了研究。结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,我国夏季降水表现出较强的局地特征。其中,我国东部和高原地区的降水在21世纪表现出明显的增加趋势,而且这种趋势随着变暖的加剧而增强,同时模式模拟结果之间的一致性也更好,表明这一结果的可信度较高。在全球变暖背景下,我国新疆南部地区表现为持续的降水减少趋势,而我国西南地区夏季降水的变化则呈现出先减少(21世纪初)后增加的特征,不同模式对降水这些局地特征的模拟也都表现出较好的一致性。其他地区夏季降水在21世纪的变化不大,同时模式模拟的一致性也较差。多模式模拟的我国未来百年夏季降水的这些变化特征在温室气体高、中、低不同排放情景下基本一致,A2情景预估结果变化最大,A1B次之,B1相对最小。东亚夏季大气环流场的预估结果显示,在全球变暖的背景下,大部分模式的模拟结果都表明,东亚夏季风环流有所增强,从而使得由低纬度大洋和南海地区向我国大陆的水汽输送增加,造成该地区大气含水量的增多,从而为我国东部地区夏季降水的增加提供有利条件。此外,随着全球变暖的加剧,西太平洋副热带高压持续增强,其变化对我国东部地区夏季降水的影响程度和范围也明显增大。这些环流场及其不确定性的分析结果进一步加强了我国夏季降水未来变化预估结果的可信度。     

我国中部地区夏季干旱的多时间尺度特征及其环流、海温异常

基于CRU逐月降水和NCEP/NCAR再分析等资料,利用集合经验模态分解(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD)方法,分析1948—2016年中国中部地区夏季降水变化的多时间尺度特征及其对应的环流、海温异常,进而解释不同时期影响干旱发生的背景场有何不同。结果表明,中部地区夏季降水以年际变化为主,周期长度为3.8 a和6.9 a,年代际和多年代际变化的方差贡献不足20%。然而,各时间尺度降水变化对不同时期干旱事件的贡献存在较大差异,1960s、1970s,降水年际变化偏弱,相反地,多年代际变化正处于负位相的极小值期;1980s、1990s,多年代际变化位相转正;2000s初,年际变化明显增强。此外,通过分析不同时间尺度降水变化对应的环流、海温背景场,发现热带印度洋海温异常及其引起的西北太平洋副热带高压的变化、大西洋北部海温异常激发的纬向波列以及贝加尔湖地区的阻塞活动、1970s末PDO位相转变伴随的东亚夏季风突变是分别解释降水年际、年代际和多年代际变化的主要原因,进而揭示影响中部地区夏季干旱发生的关键因子及其相对重要性。     

四川省旅游气候舒适度评价

为了更好地发展旅游事业,本文以四川省2006~2016年21个站点的气象数据为基础数据,运用奥利弗温湿指数和IDW空间插值法对四川省旅游气候舒适度进行评价。结果表明:(1)从总体上看,四川省旅游气候舒适度差异显著,呈现出西部较高、东部较低的特征;(2)从季节上看,四川省春、秋季舒适度较高,最适合人们旅游;夏、冬季舒适度较差,最不适合旅游;(3)从旅游地上看,除了甘孜州、阿坝州和凉山州的最舒适时期为7月,最不舒适时期为1月。四川省典型旅游地最舒适时期大都为4月和10月,最不舒适时期主要为1月和7月。因此,除甘孜州,阿坝州和凉山州外,4月和10月四川省适合旅游;相反,1月和7月四川省不适合旅游。