基于层次分析法的北京市平原区水源热泵适宜性分区研究

本文考虑到影响水源热泵功效的主要因素,对北京市平原区进行了水源热泵适宜性分区。首先,确定影响水源热泵的10个主要因素,采用层次分析法确定了10个因素的影响程度,运用综合指数法计算了北京市平原区1km×1km网格上的水源热泵适应性指数,最后采用该指数进行适宜性分区。结果表明,适宜和比较适宜建立水源热泵工程地区的面积为1381km^2,一般适宜地区的面积为1760km^2,绝对禁建和不适宜建立的面积为2997km^2,该结果为北京市浅层地温能开发利用和水源热泵工程建设,提供了科学依据。     

塔里木河流域土地利用监测适宜尺度选择方法

Optimal scale is one of the important issues in ecology and geography. Based on land-use data of the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang of China in the 1950s, regarding the area of land use types as the parameter in scale selecting, the histograms of the patches in area are charted. Then, by reinforcing the normalized scale variances (NSV) with 3 landscape indices, the scale characteristics of land use in the Tarim River Basin can be summarized. (1) NSV in the Tarim River up to a maximum at scale of 1:50,000 which is considered appropriate for the Tarim River. (2) Diversity indices of saline land are consistent with NSV’s. Diversity indices and NSV of sandy land showed that the appropriate scale is in the same scale domain. There is a significant difference between diversity indices and NSV of forestland and shrubland. (3) Fractal dimension of sandy land and saline land showed a hierarchical structure at a scale of 1:10,000. Fractal dimension of forestland and shrubland are distributed under the same hierarchical structure in the region. Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40571030; No.40730633 Author: Zhao Jin (1980–), Ph.D, specialized in study of scale effect.     

A method for choice of optimum scale on land use monitoring in Tarim River Basin

Optimal scale is one of the important issues in ecology and geography. Based on land-use data of the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang of China in the 1950s, regarding the area of land use types as the parameter in scale selecting, the histograms of the patches in area are charted. Then, by reinforcing the normalized scale variances (NSV) with 3 landscape indices, the scale characteristics of land use in the Tarim River Basin can be summarized. (1) NSV in the Tarim River up to a maximum at scale of 1:50,000 which is considered appropriate for the Tarim River. (2) Diversity indices of saline land are consistent with NSV’s. Diversity indices and NSV of sandy land showed that the appropriate scale is in the same scale domain. There is a significant difference between diversity indices and NSV of forestland and shrubland. (3) Fractal dimension of sandy land and saline land showed a hierarchical structure at a scale of 1:10,000. Fractal dimension of forestland and shrubland are distributed under the same hierarchical structure in the region.     

基于水资源承载力的干旱内陆河流域城市适度规模研究——以石羊河流域凉州区为例

 以典型的干旱内陆河流域城市武威市凉州区为研究对象,对水资源承载力、城市适度规模的内涵进行阐述;基于可利用水量、水权及水质三要素建立水资源承载能力及城市适度规模计算模型,构建了城市适度规模与实际人口的距离协调度评价模型,并给出评价区间标准;对未来可利用水量、未来可能配水量、未来城市适度规模、水资源超载度进行预测并分析。结果表明：近10 a凉州区的地表径流量变化幅度不大,相比20世纪50年代下降程度显著,凉州区水资源超载度逐年增长,城市适度规模与实际人口的距离协调度处于初级协调发展绿灯区向濒临失调衰退黄灯区过渡阶段。未来20 a水资源超载度增长率降低,基于水资源承载力的城市适度规模远小于预测的城市人口规模,城市适度规模与实际人口距离协调度进入轻度失调双黄灯警区。     

Uncertainty of the numerical solution of a nonlinear system’s long-term behavior and global convergence of the numerical pattern

The computational uncertainty principle in nonlinear ordinary differential equations makes the numerical solution of the long-term behavior of nonlinear atmospheric equations have no meaning. The main reason is that, in the error analysis theory of present-day computational mathematics, the non-linear process between truncation error and rounding erroris treated as a linear operation. In this paper, based on the operator equations of large-scale atmospheric movement, the above limitation is overcome by using the notion of cell mapping. Through studying the global asymptotic characteristics of the numerical pattern of the large-scale atmospheric equations, the definitions of the global convergence and an appropriate discrete algorithm of the numerical pattern are put forward. Three determinant theorems about the global convergence of the numerical pattern are presented, which provide the theoretical basis for constructing the globally convergent numerical pattern. Further, it is pointed out that only a globally convergent numerical pattern can improve the veracity of climatic prediction.     

可持续发展矿产资源战略探讨

中国要实现全面建设小康社会和现代化目标,不能走过度消耗自然资源,特别是不可再生矿产资源的老路。必须立足于中国国情,树立和落实科学发展观,切实转变经济增长方式,走新型工业化道路。矿产资源的可持续发展战略应当确立适度利用的对策,以促进和保证经济社会的可持续发展。     

非均衡发展战略对云南省的适宜性分析

面对云南省在新世纪里所要选择的区域经济发展战略问题,作者把非均衡理论和云南省的区域经济特点结合起来,从历史、地域差异、发展阶段、次区域经济合作与竞争、劳动地域分工5个方面阐释了,在现阶段甚至以后一个较长时期里,非均衡理论应该是云南省区域经济发展的指导性理论。云南省要实现经济起飞,必须实施非均衡的区域经济宏观发展战略。     

基于栅格GIS滑坡风险评价方法中格网大小选取分析

以地理信息系统（GIS）作为工具和研究手段的滑坡风险评价方法已得到了普遍的认可和使用，较为成熟的方法是基于栅格GIS的滑坡风险评价方法，即将滑坡风险评价中考虑的各种因子归一化处理后转换成相同空间分辩率的定量数据，然后根据特定模型进行数据运算，最后得到风险评价结果图。但在风险评价过程中存在这样的问题：对于已经量化的各影响因子，采用什么样的空间分辩率来栅格化这些因子数据才比较合适。该文以基于地形的香港大屿山滑坡风险评价为例，分析了影响空间分辩率选择的因子，并给出了影响因子空间分辩率确定的经验公式。     

适宜性人力资本与区域经济协调发展

适宜性人力资本必须与区域产业结构、区域经济发展模式相匹配,才能最大程度地发挥不同层次人力资本的效能,以有效提升区域经济发展水平。从全国和区域层面出发,基于ESDA方法和空间计量分析方法,运用1998-2014年全国30个省市的面板数据,从初级、中级、高级人力资本、物质资本、劳动力、全要素生产率等要素视角探寻适宜性人力资本促进区域经济发展效能的空间差异,研究表明：① 人力资本与省域生产总值水平均存在显著的空间相关性和路径依赖性。② 在全国层面,初级、中级人力资本对区域经济增长作用不显著,高级人力资本则作用很明显。③ 在区域层面,东部及东北地区区域经济发展主要依赖高级人力资本,中部和西部初级人力资本贡献显著,中级人力资本在四个区域均不显著。这为区域人力资本培育和区域经济高速发展政策制定奠定了理论基础。     

基于Monte Carlo模拟的地物适宜尺度提取分析

半方差函数可探测空间过程的影响范围,常用于分析遥感信息提取的适宜尺度,然而在进行大样本数据处理时,会受到计算机运算、存储等方面性能的制约。传统的做法往往直接采用随机抽样来减少数据量,其虽然降低了分析过程对计算机性能的要求,但同时也会降低分析结果的精度。因此,本文提出一种Monte Carlo模拟影像空间结构估算方法,其以小的样本量对大样本进行大量随机重复采样,在降低单次模拟数据量、运算量的同时,以充分的模拟量保证分析结果的精度。在此基础上,为了减少模拟所需时间,本研究引入并行计算,采用多核单计算机平台,进行多种地物适宜尺度提取分析的并行处理。实验与分析表明,该方法能较好地估算目标区域常见地物的适宜表达尺度（估计误差较小）。