地缘破碎带研究进展及展望

随着全球地缘政治博弈重心向亚太地区转移,中国周边及“一带一路”沿线地区将是地缘破碎带的多发区域,面临巨大的地缘风险。论文通过追溯地缘破碎带概念的起源,梳理地缘破碎带的相关研究进展,提出未来中国地缘破碎带的研究方向。20世纪初,地缘破碎带的概念被学者从地质学引入地缘政治研究领域,用以分析和解释地理环境对冲突的影响;地缘破碎带的研究主要集中在阐释其基本特征,分析地缘破碎带的分布与演化,探索地缘破碎带的整合路径等内容,研究方法多以定性分析和描述为主,研究成果多集中在全球地缘政治格局的剧变时期和欧亚大陆的边缘地带。未来中国地缘破碎带研究需要重点关注：(1)以构建地缘破碎带理论分析框架为基础,结合地理大数据等分析方法,加强地缘破碎带的可视化、量化和模拟研究;(2)加强中国周边及“一带一路”沿线地区地缘破碎带的演变过程及驱动机制研究,识别和评估地缘破碎带面临的地缘风险;(3)结合人类命运共同体理念,积极探索地缘破碎带的整合路径。     

基于多层次物理力学参数的小区域地震滑坡危险性评估——以长江上游石棉县城及周边为例

通过实地调查、遥感解译、资料收集等手段,获取滑坡崩塌体编录、松散堆积层、地质单元的岩土体物理力学参数,使得滑坡编录、地质调查数据与区域Newmark位移模型有机结合。研究表明,在滑坡编录等3个层次中,由第一层次到第三层次,物理力学参数精度逐渐下降,这也反映了滑坡编录在危险性评价中所占据的重要性,更能与实际相吻合。通过对长江上游石棉县城地质灾害潜在危险性的评估,得出了不同尺度峰值加速度下危险性分布区域与规律,经与危险性线性拟合,在峰值加速度a=0.3时,区域危险区面积呈大规模急剧上升,为区域毁灭性灾难的临界值。同时,石棉县城随着峰值加速度数值增大,危险区从滑坡编录控制逐渐过渡到坡度控制,显示了多层次物理力学参数下危险性评估的合理性。      

郑州市断裂最大潜在地震发震概率评价

根据“郑州市城市活断层探测与地震危险性评价(二期)”综合目标区断层最大潜在地震判定结果,郑州市近东西向断裂有老鸦陈断裂和上街断裂等.老鸦陈断裂第四纪不活动,上街断裂等可能具有发生5-5.5级地震的能力.为了得到最大地震的发震概率,划分了统计区及潜在震源区,得到了地震活动性参数及空间分布函数.最终得出了郑州市断裂未来50年发生1次5级以上地震的概率为6％,未来100年发生1次5级以上地震的概率为11％.     

基于干旱K指数的阿勒泰地区夏旱风险区划

利用新疆阿勒泰地区7个气象站1981-2010年6-8月月平均气温、降水量资料,首先通过Thomthwaite方法计算潜在蒸发量确定K干旱指数,应用变异系数、风险概率、风险指数对阿勒泰地区夏季干旱的风险性进行了讨论和评估。结果表明：阿勒泰地区遭受干旱的风险性较高,出现偏旱的风险概率在80%左右,发生重旱的风险概率在22%～36%;综合风险区划结果显示：夏旱高风险区主要集中在阿勒泰北部和中东部,风险概率分布上偏北丘陵地区大于南部。     

Unsupervised hydrologic classification of rivers: Watershed controls on natural and anthropogenic flow regimes,Alabama, USA

Watershed hydrology has often focused on modelling studies of individual watersheds, which consider each river system as unique. Classification is an alternative approach that instead focuses on the similarities among different watersheds. Although both supervised and unsupervised hydrologic classifications have been developed, few previous studies have used classification to assess the degree of anthropogenic modification of hydrologic regime. Here, we conducted an unsupervised hydrologic classification of 189 U.S. Geological Survey gages, including 41 minimally impacted gages from the Hydro‐Climatic Data Network (HCDN), in the five major interstate river basins in the U.S. state of Alabama. For the natural classification, the most significant predictor variables for cluster membership were related to compressive strength of bedrock, bedrock depth, hydraulic conductivity, elevation, temperature, and soil texture, and several land‐cover variables were also significant in the anthropogenic classification. We then developed two random‐forest models: one based on all 189 gages using both natural and anthropogenic variables from the Stream‐Catchment (StreamCat) dataset and one based on the 41 HCDN gages using natural StreamCat variables only. We used the random‐forest models to predict natural and anthropogenic normative hydrologic class for over 158,000 National Hydrography Dataset Plus catchments in the study area. Catchments that changed their class between the natural and anthropogenic classifications can be identified as those that have a large amount of anthropogenic influences on their hydrologic regime, including many catchments on the coast, in the north‐western Coastal Plain, in the Interior Low Plateaus, and in the Piedmont. Using unsupervised hydrologic classifications is a promising approach for uncovering the physical processes that affect hydrologic regime. There are also potential applications in river management, including predicting the hydrologic behaviour of ungaged watersheds, identifying relatively unimpaired rivers to serve as conservation and restoration targets, and regionalization of environmental instream flow standards and climate‐change impacts.     

山西地堑系强震的活动规律和危险区段的研究

山西地堑系是我国著名的历史强震活动带之一。作者系统地分析了山西地堑系历史强震的重复和迁移现象、M≥7级地震前中强地震的活动特征、蠕变曲线的线性分段性,并根据近期地震活动的特点,判断了现今地震活动暂态和未来地震活动性;最后,在现有的形变测量资料、历史地震和古地震研究成果的基础上,确定了山西地堑系内可能发生强震的危险区段     

江苏滨海北部近岸海域海洋环境现状调查及风险评价

本文对2019年秋季江苏滨海北部近岸海域水质和沉积物环境进行了调查,分析研究结果表明：水质主要超标因子为化学需氧量、无机氮、活性磷酸盐、Cu、Pb和Cd;沉积物中As和硫化物超过第一类沉积物质量标准,但满足第二类海洋质量标准,其他指标均符合第一类沉积物质量标准。采用地累积指数法和潜在生态风险指数法进行评价,沉积物重金属除Cd外,潜在生态风险整体为低风险,单因子生态风险由高到低为Cd>Hg>As>Pb>Cu>Cr>Zn。     

赣南离子吸附型稀土矿区土壤重金属形态分布特征及生态风险评价

稀土矿的露天开采易造成土壤重金属污染等环境问题。已有研究表明赣南离子吸附型稀土矿区土壤存在以Cd、Pb为主的轻、中度重金属污染。常见环境质量评价以主要污染因子（如重金属总量）作为衡量污染程度的指标,仅能反映重金属的富集程度。为查明赣南稀土矿区土壤重金属的赋存状态、迁移能力以及生物有效性,本文在利用电感耦合等离子体质谱法（ICP-MS）测定土壤重金属各形态含量的基础上,采用地累积指数法、潜在生态危害指数法及RAC风险评价法对赣南稀土矿区土壤重金属的生态风险进行评价。结果表明：①研究区土壤重金属主要以残渣态存在,占总量的65.5%。②土壤样品中Cd、Pb含量平均值分别是江西省土壤背景值的1.72倍和2.14倍;流域内位于矿山下游河流沿岸农田土壤Cd的平均值、尾矿库附近农田Pb的平均值分别是土壤背景值的2.33倍和3.06倍,22.7%样品的Cd或Pb含量超过风险筛选值,其中可交换态所占比例仅次于残渣态,分别占总量的47.1%和13.5%。③地累积指数与潜在生态风险评价结果表明Cd、Pb累积程度及生态风险水平较高,Co、Ni、Cu、Zn较低;RAC风险评价结果显示Cd生态风险较高,Co、Zn、Pb生态风险中等,Cu、Ni生态风险低。④针对矿区农田土壤的三种评价方法各有侧重,其评价结果异中有同,均表明研究区土壤Cd具有较高的污染程度和迁移活性,生态风险较高。本研究结果将为识别稀土矿周边农田土壤的潜在环境风险,提出有效的防范、应急与减缓措施提供科学依据。     

Impact of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Diurnal Temperature Range in January in Eastern China

This study investigates the changes in January diurnal temperature range(DTR) in China during 1961-2000.The observed DTR changes during 1981-2000 relative to 1961-80 are first analyzed based on the daily temperature data at 546 weather stations.These observed DTR changes are classified into six cases depending on the changes in daily maximum and minimum temperatures,and then the occurrence frequency and magnitude of DTR change in each case are presented.Three transient simulations are then performed to understand the impact of greenhouse gases(GHGs) and aerosol direct forcing on DTR change:one without anthropogenic radiative forcing,one with anthropogenic GHGs,and another one with the combined forcing of GHGs and five species of anthropogenic aerosols.The predicted daily DTR changes during the years 1981-2000 are also classified into six cases and are compared with the observations.Results show that the previously proposed reason for DTR reduction,a stronger nocturnal warming than a daytime warming,explains only 19.8%of the observed DTR reduction days.DTR reductions are found to generally occur in northeastern China,coinciding with significant regional warming.The simulation with GHG forcing alone reproduces this type of DTR reduction with an occurrence frequency of 32.9%,which is larger than the observed value.Aerosol direct forcing reduces DTR mainly by daytime cooling.Consideration of aerosol cooling improves the simulation of occurrence frequencies of different types of DTR changes as compared to the simulation with GHGs alone,but it cannot improve the prediction of the magnitude of DTR changes.     

贵州梵净山西北陡山沱组底部白云岩帽地球化学特征及成因探讨

本文介绍了研究开发出的基于MicrosoftVisual C 6.0平台的城市地质环境风险性分区评价GIS软件,包括该系统软件开发的理论和方法及软件开发的必要性、适应性、基本结构、主要功能、设计思路和实现过程。