Do free-ranging domestic goats show ‘landscapes of fear’? Patch use in response to habitat features and predator cues

One factor that influences foraging is predation risk. As a result, herbivores may not use landscapes uniformly due to spatial differences in perceived predation risk. Wild herbivores forage across these ‘landscapes of fear’; however, the extent to which domestic herbivores consider them is generally unknown. Using a grid of artificial food patches and measuring giving up densities (GUDs), we mapped landscapes of fear of free-ranging domestic goats on three substrates. In the first experiment, we related GUDs to landscape variables. Goats preferred feeding in open ground with firm substrate compared to a sandy riverbed or a rocky hillside. We suggest that differences relate to escape potential and the occurrence of ambush sites. Landscape variables that influenced feeding effort were patch visibility and plants next to a patch. In a second experiment, we increased predation risk by adding predator dung and urine into the habitats. In response, feeding effort declined across all three habitats. Furthermore, goats only responded to patch visibility and not plants next to the patches. Better sightlines increase predator detection and allow individuals to see group members. Our results indicate that predation risk influences the extent to which free-ranging domestic herbivores utilise landscapes.     

Aspiration and reality: flood policy, economic damages and the appraisal process

Research shows that flood damage potential has increased significantly in the last 15 years. At the same time, flood policy has shifted away from simplistic flood defence towards 'living with floods' and 'making space for water'. This paper explores the mis-match between the aspiration in policy ideals, the reality of rising potential economic damages and the inability of the flood risk appraisal process to match the aspiration with the reality. Unless investment appraisal procedures are changed, the increase in damages will undermine policy changes that seek a different pattern of flood risk management, away from economically dominated decision-criteria towards more sustainable objectives.     

ＲBCA 和 CLEA 模型在某污染场地健康风险评价中的对比研究

以某有机污染场地为例,对比分析了 ＲBCA 和 CLEA 模型评价原理和方法,并通过毒理学方法分析了评价结果与污染场地实际情况的符合程度。研究表明,两种模型在评价方法、适用范围方面存在差异,ＲBCA 模型适合需要综合考虑污染物在水、土、气中迁移转化的污染场地健康风险评价; CLEA 模型适合以摄入污染场地种植植物为主要暴露途径的健康风险评价。     

青海高原雪灾风险区划及对策建议

利用青海省50个气象台站逐日积雪深度资料、遥感监测积雪深度资料和牲畜死亡率资料,对遥感监测积雪数据进行了验证,证实遥感监测积雪数据能很好的反映青海积雪状况.利用积雪指标分析青海各地致灾强度大小.结果表明:青海三江源地区和祁连山区的部分地区致灾因子危险性最高,柴达木盆地的西部和东部农业区以及环湖的部分地区致灾因子危险性较低.通过分析积雪指标和牲畜死亡率的相关关系,确定了不同雪灾等级临界气象指标,对青海地区进行了雪灾风险区划.区划结果为:轻灾主要发生在柴达木盆地、东部农业区的大部和环湖的部分地区,这些地区发生轻灾的频率大都在50%以上;中灾和重灾在青海发生频率均不高,都在20%以下;三江源的大部尤其是囊谦、玉树和称多一带是特大雪灾的高发区,发生频率均在50%以上.     

基于并行计算的海洋平台谱分析疲劳筛选技术研究

为了得到海洋平台疲劳失效风险最大的焊接区域,提出了以有限元网格单元应力为基础的谱分析筛选方法,并开发了程序。程序采用并行计算架构,单次完成数万个单元的累积损伤度/疲劳寿命计算,并通过有限元软件以云图方式显示疲劳寿命。采用该程序计算双浮筒半潜式平台的疲劳寿命。结果表明,该型平台疲劳失效风险较高的区域为立柱与上壳体下浮体连接对角线转角区域、浮筒中纵舱壁与立柱连接区域。并行计算方法的引入,大大缩减疲劳损伤度计算的分析时间,采用22核心的CPU,时间缩短为原来的1/18.5,17小时完成全平台外壳单元谱分析计算。     

大亚湾海域重金属潜在生态危害评价

采用金属潜在生态危害系数和危害指数的评估方法，评价了大亚湾海域重金属对海洋生态系统的潜在危害。结果表明，大亚湾海域重金属潜在生态危害轻微，而养殖海区和近岸海区的重金属潜在生态危害则相对较重，大亚湾海域重金属的潜在生态危害较珠江口外浅海轻。     

首都圈地区现今断层活动的数学模拟及地震危险性讨论

以首都圈地区现今活动断层上近２０年的位移测量资料为依据，用二维线弹性有限元对该区断层的活动特征进行了拟合，并结合有关资料讨论了该区的地震危险性。结果表明：１９７７－１９８６年间该区主压应力优势方位与华北较一致，约为Ｎ４５°－８０°Ｅ；１９８６－１９９０年其主压应力方向向北偏转，约为Ｎ５°－６０°Ｅ；１９９０年至现在其主压应力又向东偏转，角度大于第一阶段，约为Ｎ８０°－９５°Ｅ。该区的张家口－延庆一带近期有发生中强震的可能；丰镇－阳高－大同地区和凉城－古营盘地区应力较高，也应引起注意。     

平衡损失下回归系数stein压缩估计的性质

在平衡损失风险函数准则下,研究线性模型中回归系数的stein估计优于最小二乘估计(LS)的充分必要条件,然后在pitman closeness(PC)准则下比较了stein估计相对于最小二乘估计的优良性。     

A simplified hindcast method for the estimation of extreme storm surge events in semi-enclosed basins

Human presence, coastal erosion, and tourism activities are increasing the attention to coastal flooding risk. To perform risk assessments, long time series of observed or hindcast wave parameters and tide levels are then necessary. In some cases, only a few years of observation are available, so that observed extreme data are not always representative and reliable. A hindcast system aimed to reconstruct long time series of total tide levels may be of great help to perform robust extreme events analysis and then to protect human life, activities as well as to counteract coastal erosion by means of risk assessments. This work aims to propose a simplified method to hindcast storm surge levels time series in semi-enclosed basins with low computational costs. The method is an extension of a previous work of some of the authors and consists of a mixed approach in which the estimation of storm surge obtained by using the theory of linear dynamic system is corrected by using a statistical method. Both steps are characterized by low computational costs. Nevertheless, the results may be considered reliable enough also in view of the simplicity of the approach. The proposed method has been applied to the Manfredonia case study, a small village located in the Southern Adriatic Italian coast and often prone to coastal flooding events. The comparison of extreme events estimated on the basis of hindcast levels time series is satisfactorily similar to those estimated on the basis of observed tide series.     

Numerical Simulation of the 1918 Puerto Rico Tsunami

The Caribbean Sea region is well known for its hurricanes, and less known for tsunamis. As part of its responsibilities in hazard assessment and mitigation, the U.S.A. Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the Puerto Rico Civil Defense, funded a pilot study to perform a numerical simulation of the 1918 Puerto Rico tsunami, one of the most deadly in the region. As part of the study a review has been made of the tectonic and tsunamigenic environment around Puerto Rico, the fault parameters for the 1918 event have been estimated, and a numerical simulation has been done using a tsunami propagation and runup model obtained through the Tsunami Inundation Modeling for Exchange (TIME) program. Model results have been compared with the observed runup values all along the west coast of Puerto Rico.