Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Site effect on vulnerability of high-rise shear wall buildings under near and far field earthquakes

Worldwide experience repeatedly shows that damages in structures caused by earthquakes are highly dependent on site condition and epicentral distance. In this paper, a 21-storey shear wall-structure built in the 1960s in Hong Kong is selected as an example to investigate these two effects. Under various design earthquake intensities and for various site conditions, the fragility curves or damage probability matrix of such building is quantified in terms of the ductility factor, which is estimated from the ratio of storey yield shear to the inter-storey seismic shear. For high-rise buildings, a higher probability of damage is obtained for a softer site condition, and damage is more severe for far field earthquakes than for near field earthquakes. For earthquake intensity of VIII, the probability of complete collapse (P) increases from 1 to 24% for near field earthquakes and from 1 to 41% for far field earthquakes if the building is moved form a rock site to a site consisting a 80 m thick soft clay. For intensity IX, P increases from 6 to 69% for near field earthquake and from 14 to 79% for far field earthquake if the building is again moved form rock site to soft soil site. Therefore, site effect is very important and not to be neglected. Similar site and epicentral effects should also be expected for other types of high-rise structures.     

Geography in a restructuring world?

In those parts of their discipline which can be categorised as spatial analysis, geographers have focused attention on distance as a key variable, and have paid little attention to bounded spaces and territoriality strategies. In a rapidly restructuring world, in which distance is becoming increasingly irrelevant as an influence on many forms of behaviour, territoriality remains an important aspect of the manipulation of space for economic, social, political and cultural purposes: in the terminology of Hagerstrands classic model, while the coupling and capability constraints on interaction are weakening, the authority constraint remains strong.     

Separation and relationship of ten marine scuticociliates (Protozoa, Ciliophora) using RAPD fingerprinting method

On the basis of the random amplified polymorphic DNA-fingerprinting (RAPD) method, 10 morphospecies of scuticociliates from 7 genera, including 15 clones of 13 strains, Uronema marinum, Uronema cf marinum, Parauronema virginianum, P. longum, Metanophrys similis, M. sinensis, Paralembus digitiformis, Mesanophrys carcini, Paranophrys magna and Cohnilernbus verrninus were analysed using 8 oligonucleotide primers. The genetic similarity among the clones of the same strain measured by a band-sharing index is 0.97～0.98,while 0.40-4).52 among strains. This value measured is 0.39～0.46 among congeners of the same genus, whereas 0.16～0.47 between different genera. A distance tree was constructed based on 8-primer analysis, in which the scuticociliates investigated were separated into two clusters: one consists of 2 genera, Uronema and Parauronema, and the other was composed of five, Metanophrys, Mestmophrys,Paranophrys, Paralembus and Cohnilembus. It is demonstrated also that the morphospecies Parauronema virginianurn may be a species-complex, i. e., it contains different genospecies.     

顾及有效角动量与IGS超快解数据的极移预报方法

极移高精度预报对卫星实时定轨、深空探测器导航等应用至关重要.本文提出了一种联合有效角动量(Effective Angular Momentum, EAM)与国际全球卫星导航系统服务组织(International GNSS Service, IGS)提供的超快解数据进行极移预报的方法.该方法基于IGS超快解数据得到的极移第1天预报值, 对引入EAM得到的极移预报结果进行校正, 获得联合预报值.首先, 基于LS(Least Squares)+AR(Auto-Regressive)模型实现了引入EAM的极移预报, 相对国际地球自转与参考系统服务组织(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的公报A数据, 在超短期(第1~10天)预报跨度可以得到更高精度的极移预报结果, 其中大气和海洋角动量发挥了主要作用.其次, 鉴于IGS超快解数据精度高、更新快的特点, 以IGS超快解为基础数据, 基于LS+AR模型可以得到极移第1天预报值, 其精度显著优于IERS公报A的极移第1天预报值.最后, 利用第1天预报值对顾及有效角动量的预报结果进行校正获得了联合预报值, 进一步提高了超短期极移预报精度(尤其是第1~5天).2020年7月24日—2022年1月30日间的联合预报结果表明: 第1~20天的预报值总体优于IERS公报A的预报值.其中, 第1~10天的预报精度显著提升, 在预报第1天, X、Y方向预报值相对公报A预报值的精度提升分别可达39.5%~62.3%和24.5%~51.9%;在预报第10天, 相对公报A预报值的精度提升分别可达28.0%~28.9%和21.9%~23.4%.

     

Gravity torques for surface waves

The effects of the gravity torques acting on the angular momentum of surface gravity waves are calculated theoretically. For short crested waves the gravity torque is caused by the force of gravity on the orbiting fluid particles acting down the slopes of the crests and troughs and in the direction parallel to the crests and troughs. The gravity torque tries to rotate the angular momentum vectors, and thus the waves themselves, counterclockwise in the horizontal plane, as viewed from above, in both hemispheres. The amount of rotation per unit time is computed to be significant assuming reasonable values for the along-crest and trough slopes for waves in a storm area. The gravity torque has a frequency which is double the frequency of the waves. For long crested waves the gravity torque acts in the vertical plane of the orbit and tries to decelerate the particles when they rise and accelerate them when they fall. By disrupting the horizontal cyclostrophic balance of forces on the fluid particles (centrifugal force versus pressure force) the gravity torque accounts qualitatively for the three characteristics of breaking waves: that they break at the surface, that they break at the crest, and that the crest breaks in the direction of wave propagation.     

Efficiency analysis of open trench for impact pile driving through a single-variable method

Abstract

The ground vibrations during pile driving operation have a drastic potential to undermine the surrounding structures both in land and reclaimed land. Particularly, reclaimed land necessitates ample application of pile driving due to the weak land condition. To prevent the structural damage, attenuation of the ground vibrations to an allowable level through active isolation of circular open trench is the scope of this study. In this research, finite element simulations of continuous impact pile driving process from the ground surface was executed with particular attention to the pile-soil interaction, and thereby, the efficiency of open trench application in attenuation of the unsafe distance of different structures was surveyed using the vibration sensitivity degree. Regarding the crucial parameters of an open trench (depth, width, and location), it was concluded that a sufficient high depth can attenuate the unsafe distance up to 68%, the trench width variations are less effective, and an average pile-trench distance is the most efficient option. The excavation volume was also concluded as another crucial parameter in open trench design which takes all three parameters into account. The trench depth equal to the pile’s maximum critical depth of vibration was inferred for an optimum design.     

Appraisal of storm beach buffer width for cyclonic waves

The loss of beach sand from berm and dune due to high waves and surge is a universal phenomenon associated with sporadic storm activities. To protect the development in a coastal hazard zone, hard structures or coastal setback have been established in many countries around the world. In this paper, the requirement of a storm beach buffer, being a lesser extent landward comparing with the coastal setback to ensure the safety of infrastructures, is numerically assessed using the SBEACH model for three categories of wave conditions in terms of storm return period, median sand grain size, berm width, and design water level. Two of the key outputs from the numerical calculations, berm retreat and bar formation offshore, are then analysed, as well as beach profile change. After having performed a series of numerical studies on selected large wave tank (LWT) test results with monochromatic waves using SBEACH, we may conclude that: (1) Berm erosion increases and submerged bar develops further offshore as the storm return period increases for beach with a specific sand grain size, or as the sand grain reduces on a beach under the action of identical wave condition; (2) Higher storm waves yield a large bar to form quicker and subsequently cause wave breaking on the bar crest, which can reduce the wave energy and limit the extent of the eroding berm; (3) A larger buffer width is required for a beach comprising small sand grain, in order to effectively absorb storm wave energy; and (4) Empirical relationships can be tentatively proposed to estimate the storm beach buffer width, from the input of wave conditions and sediment grain size. These results would benefit a beach nourishment project for shore protection or design of a recreational beach.     

陀螺定向中仪器常数的适用范围

针对陀螺定向过程中已知边和未知边的相对位置定义较为模糊的现状,该文主要探讨了对于同一陀螺定向边,由于不同距离与方位的已知边测定的仪器常数不同,从而影响定向精度的问题;并通过试验分析,得出了在陀螺定向过程中,测定仪器常数的地面已知边与地下定向边的平面位置的适用范围。结果表明,已知边与定向边的距离不同对仪器常数影响较大;已知边与定向边的相对方位不同对仪器常数的影响较小。     

横向土运动作用下群桩的性状研究

以有限元与有限差分相结合,对横向土运动作用下的群桩工作性状,产生群桩效应的临界桩距、桩数及排列、桩顶边界条件等影响因素作出分析;并对沿桩排的应力分布作出初步探讨。