7月份降雨分布型的预报方法

综述了我国７月份雨型的划分方法，各种雨型的多雨特点及环流特征，总结了各类雨型的预报判据，着眼于赤道东太平洋海温（ＳＳＴ），冬季（１－３月）５００ｈＰａ环流，春季（３－５月）西太平洋副热带高压，夏季（６－８月）赤道平流层纬向风准两年振荡（ＱＢＯ）等方面，分析了与７月雨型的关联。该方法对业务预报有很好的指导意义。     

冰川动力学模式及其对中国冰川变化预测的适应性

冰川动力学模式以其优越的物理过程描述能力,在冰川变化的预测研究中占有重要地位.其中“频率响应模式”、“剖面形状因子模式”和“冰流模式”较为成熟,并且具备对山岳冰川演变的模拟分析能力.从发展历史、主要利弊以及适用条件和范围几个方面,对上述3种模式进行了讨论,并对其在我国冰川上的运用前景进行了探讨.     

Calculating Method and Verification of Wave Pressure Distribution on the Breast Wall of Mound Breakwater

In this paper, the calculating charts and formulae about wave pressure on the breast wall are derived with seven parameters on the basis of physical model study. The verification shows that the charts agree with the example, and are adopted in the Specifications of Fishery Harbours Breakwater by the Ministry of Agricultures.     

旅行分布的重力模式与交通模型的关系

从交通问题的对偶规划出发, 引入由Beckmann 和Wallance, Golob 和Beckman 等提出的不确定性效用方法, 建立交通问题和双约束重力模型的关系。证明当旅行者效用概率分布密度函数的标准差趋于零时, 双约束重力模型中的距离摩擦系数趋于正无穷, 由双约束重力模型确定的旅行分布使得总的交通成本达到最小。在这种关系中, 双约束重力模型中平衡因子的作用是市场调整旅行终点服务价格进而调整旅行者消费者剩余的结果。通过建立的分 析方法对北京、上海、广州、西安、武汉、成都和昆明等七个城市间航空交通的应用, 发现多数航线的模拟较好。结果表明各终点的差异性、消费者偏好的不同、交通工具的替代性和旅行目的之差异性等可以导致一些较大的误差, 这些差异性可以采用对起终点对的单位交通费用的调整来体现, 从而达到较好的模拟和分析效果。     

鄂尔多斯盆地陕北地区长10油源及成藏条件分析

在鄂尔多斯盆地的陕北志丹地区勘探发现了长10油藏,原油密度为0．8152g／cm^3,全烃色谱图的主峰为nC13～nC15油质较轻。轻烃组分中环烷烃较为丰富,芳烃含量低,呈姥植均势（Pr／Ph为1．21～1.45）,原油的δ^13CP08值为-31．78％。,甾萜烷分布与主要参数特征为：重排藿烷类相对丰度很高、伽马蜡烷低,Ts／Tm比值很高（5.54～7．26）C30^＊／C50藿烷比值高（0．67～0．72）,C29Ts／C30藿烷比值高（0．38～0．52）,甾烷中重排甾烷较高、αβ和βα构型甾烷丰富。ααα-20R构型甾烷呈不对称“V”型分布,反映了较为典型的湖相油型油特征。油-油、油-源对比显不,该区长10原油来自长7优质烃源岩。石油可能是在湖盆中部长7优质烃源岩发育的地区通过垂向倒灌进入长10油层组、经侧向运聚成藏的。据此,预测盆地长9和长10油层组具备良好的成藏与勘探潜力。     

GNSS转发式欺骗干扰方法的改进

针对GNSS多天线转发式欺骗干扰在实际应用中,当干扰机与目标机距离大于一定范围时,将引起目标机钟差突跳,从而易被目标机检测和识别的缺陷,提出了基于干扰机阵列的转发式欺骗干扰新方法。干扰机阵列按照正六边形网型布设,可实现目标区域的无缝覆盖,并且灵活易拓展。不论目标机位于区域的任何位置,均有一个最优干扰机能够对其实施有效干扰。为了确定相邻干扰机的最优间距,本文在干扰机阵列不同间距下对具有钟差突跳自适应检测能力的目标机的干扰有效性进行了仿真研究。结论表明,综合考虑各种约束因素,相邻干扰机最优间距为17 km,满足该条件的干扰机阵列在实施欺骗干扰过程中,不会造成目标机钟差突跳,有效解决了该干扰方式易被目标机识别的问题。     

一种自适应匹配子空间亚像元目标探测方法

为了克服基于线性混合模型的高光谱遥感影像亚像元目标探测方法的缺陷, 提出了一种基于全限制性线性分解的自适应匹配子空间探测方法。首先利用交叉相关光谱匹配技术求得各个像元所含端元类别信息, 然后根据端元类别信息和全限制性分解的结果构造自适应匹配子空间探测算子, 利用端元类别信息在探测中动态选择端元, 降低端元数目估计偏差对探测结果的影响, 提高探测器对目标与背景的可分性。实验证明, 该方法与其他基于线性混合模型的亚像元目标探测方法相比, 可以更好地克服端元数目估计偏差对探测结果的影响, 无论是端元个数低估还是     

Identifying substandard vessels through Port State Control inspections: A new methodology for Concentrated Inspection Campaigns

Substandard vessels that fail to comply with international maritime regulations are the target of Port State Control inspections. Despite their significant costs, many inspections do not lead to any detentions and, in a significant number of cases, no deficiencies are detected. In this paper, quantile regressions for count data are used to estimate the likelihood of having a high number of deficiencies of a specific type. The purpose is to complement existing practices focusing on detention with the objective to improve the selection process. Similar factors influence the likelihood of having a vessel detained and that of having a vessel recording a high number of deficiencies. However, quantile regressions applied to the number of deficiencies help improving the identification of factors influencing the likelihood of finding some specific types of deficiencies, which is the focus of Concentrated Inspection Campaigns. The paper concludes that the selection process for such campaigns should be improved using this new methodology.     

A Comparison Study of the Contributions of Additional Observations in the Sensitive Regions Identified by CNOP and FSV to Reducing Forecast Error Variance for the Typhoon Morakot

The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been designed in the above regions and the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) techniques are utilized to examine which approach can locate more appropriate regions for typhoon adaptive observations. The results show that, in general, the majority of the probes in the sensitive regions of CNOPs can reduce more forecast error variance than the probes in the sensitive regions of FSV. This implies that adaptive observations in the sensitive regions of CNOPs are more effective than in the sensitive regions of FSV. Furthermore, the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by the best probe identified by CNOPs is twice the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by FSV. This implies that dropping sondes, which is the best probe identified by CNOPs, can improve the forecast more than the best probe identified by FSV. These results indicate that the sensitive regions identified by CNOPs are more appropriate for adaptive observations than those identified by FSV.     

中国地级及以上城市“四化”协调发展效率的时空分异测度

以中国343个地级及以上行政单元为研究对象,运用数据包络分析和探索性空间数据分析,研究了2001年和2011年 “四化”协调发展及其效率的空间差异变化,借助地理加权回归模型揭示“四化”协调发展效率的影响因素及其空间差异。结果显示,中国地级单元2001年和2011年的“四化”协调发展及其效率均存在显著的空间分异,综合指数、耦合度和协调度空间差异呈现以西北-东南走向的“反胡焕庸线”为分界的态势。“四化”协调发展效率整体较低,效率值较高的地区集中在中部地区,达到“有效”状态的城市极少。10 a间平均效率值总体降低 ,高值区逐渐向东部沿海地区转移。城乡人均固定资产投资差异、人均GDP和人均社会消费品零售总额是影响“四化”协调发展效率的重要因素。