资源潜力评价中典型矿床与区域矿产编图思路讨论

根据新一轮全国矿产资源潜力评价工作需要,首先按矿产预测类型选择典型矿床编制典型矿床成矿要素图-典型矿床预测要素图-典型矿床成矿模式图和预测模型图,然后再按预测研究工作区范围编制区域地质建造构造矿产图-区域成矿要素图-区域预测要素图-区域成矿模式图和预测模型图。讨论了有关图件的编制思路,并提出了图中突出显示成矿要素和预测要素的方法。     

大同盆地砷中毒病区沉积物中砷的吸附行为和影响因素分析

沉积物对砷的吸附-解吸作用是控制砷在地下水中的迁移和转化的决定性因素。对砷中毒重病区大同盆地山胡县沉积物中砷的吸附行为和影响因素研究结果表明,沉积物对砷的吸附符合Freundlich吸附等温模式,吸附量主要与沉积物颗粒大小、黏土矿物质量分数和类型、铁铝氧化物质量分数以及沉积物中As的质量分数有关,有机质质量分数对砷的吸附量影响需进一步深入研究。铝硅酸盐、铁铝氧化物质量分数较高且颗粒较细的黏土和亚黏土类沉积物对砷的吸附性较强;而铝硅酸盐、铁铝氧化物质量分数较低且颗粒较粗的细砂和粉砂类沉积物对砷的吸附性较差,其所处的含水层也是形成高砷地下水的主要含水层。pH值为5．5～8．0时,砷的吸附量最大。大同盆地高砷地下水pH条件非常不利于沉积物中砷的吸附,易形成高砷地下水。该区地下水10℃左右的温度条件非常有利于沉积物对砷的吸附,但由于影响因素较多,且地下水的温度在不同季节会发生一定的变化,其产生的影响还有待进一步研究。     

基于自适应参数估计的多时相遥感图像变化检测

提出一种基于自适应参数估计实现多时相遥感图像的变化检测算法.首先应用分层Markov随机场模型建立多时相差分图像的统计模型;然后通过非监督的迭代自适应参数估计实现差分图像的分类,从而检测出变化的像元.在每次参数估计过程中,先将上次估计出的参数用于最大后验估计实现差分图像的分类,然后根据分类结果再对参数进行修正,并将修正后的参数用于下一次迭代分类,如此循环迭代,能够自适应地完成差分图像的参数估计与分类.     

The dynamics of tourist excursion ratios in Slovakia show caves from 2000 to 2014

Show caves are one of the most important targets in developing local ecotourism strategies. This work focuses on a tourism visit rate incidence through an Attractiveness Index concerning 12 selected show caves in Slovakia. Our study focuses on visitor counts published from 2000 to 2014. A set of eight criteria were selected in order to analyse and determine the appeal that each cave may have for visitors. Establishing the “degree” of appeal as an indicator of the tourism and geographic absolute attractiveness value is based on a principal components factor analysis; the resultant single factor was correlated with our selected criteria. We find a strong correlation between touristic cave attractiveness and cave locations, ease of cave passage access (vehicle and trail) infrastructures, cave location in main tourism regions, and the growth of urban areas as they encroach on show cave locations. Similar studies in valorization of show caves tourism have not been attempted in Slovakia or Eastern Europe. The data and result from this study are also clearly important from a managerial perspective. This general framework could be easily expanded to include additional attributes that might be relevant for other market segments or other vacation experiences.     

MISCELLANY

The geomorphic sciences will continue to be dynamic in the coming decade. Among other developments, there is a trend toward increased dependence on field reserch, more realistic expectations from reserch tools, a resurgence of interest in man-land relations with a renewed dependence on the historical approach, a reinvestigation of morphogenetic regions, study of planetary surfaces other than earth's, and involvement with applied problems, as well as cooperation and collaboration with scientists in related fields. The greatest need is the development of connections between academic and nonacademic geographers at all levels.     

中国能源消费增长特征及影响因素分析

以煤炭消费为主、总量增长迅速、结构演进缓慢、使用效率低下使得中国目前能源消费调控问题面临诸多困难。本文使用多元回归模型和通径分析法确定了中国能源消费增长的主要因子及各因子的作用机理,结果发现：影响中国能源消费的主要因素按照影响程度依次为经济增长、城市化水平、对外贸易、人口总量、能源消费结构及能源利用效率,其中经济增长、人口规模扩大是直接推动中国能源消费增长的原因,而城市化水平和对外贸易规模则通过间接作用推动能源消费增长,能源消费结构的改善和能源利用效率的提高表面上看起来会引发能源消费增加,但是其间接影响都是负的,从而使得这两个因素整体上表现为减缓了能源消费增长。     

论山地灾害链

山地灾害链是具有灾变条件的山地环境,在致灾因素的作用下,一种山地灾害发生后,引起其他种类山地灾害也相继或滞后发生的灾变现象,通常由泥石流、山洪、滑坡、崩塌、冰崩、雪崩、堰塞湖和水土流失等灾种及其相关灾变现象构成,种类繁多,结构复杂,危害严重.根据山地灾害链的致灾因素不同将其划分成地球内营力作用、外营力作用和人为作用致灾3种类型,并进一步将其划分成8个亚类和128种灾害链形式.分析了山地灾害链的成因,认为山地灾害链是山地灾害的物质、能量和信息在特定条件下相互作用、相互渗透、相互传递和相互转化的结果.通过对山地害链的致灾因素、活动地域与结构特征分析和综合分析显示:山地灾害链的防治难度虽然很大,但除分布在高山和极高山区域、由冰雪崩塌和消融水引发的山地灾害链仅可预防,尚难治理外,其他山地灾害链都是可防、可治的.     

江苏县域经济要素关系及演化过程的分位数回归

针对经典回归模型的“两难问题”,引入非参数的分位数回归构建了要素关系模型,并以江苏县域经济为案例分析.结果表明:1)相比OLS回归,分位数回归对县域经济总体模拟效果和刻画演化特征能力更优;2)根据变量关系结构,将县域经济发展驱动机制划分为产业结构占优型、一般均衡驱动型和高效均衡驱动型;3)苏锡常各县市受因子波动影响而使得驱动机制发生改变导致演化过程的分位点跃迁,表现出发展路径选择具有多样化的特点.     

Study of the seismic response of a recycled aggregate concrete frame structure

Based on six-degree-of-freedom three-dimensional shaking table tests, the seismic response of a recycled aggregate concrete （RAC） frame was obtained. The analysis results indicate that the maximum story shear force and overturning moment reduce proportionally along the height of the model under the same earthquake wave. The story shear force, base shear coefficient and overturning moment of the structure increase progressively as the acceleration amplitude increases. The base shear coefficient is primarily controlled by the peak ground acceleration （PGA）. The relationships between the PGA and the shear coefficient as well as between the PGA and the dynamic amplification factor are obtained by mathematical fitting. The dynamic amplification factor decreases rapidly at the elastic-plastic stage, but decreases slowly with the development of the elastic-plasticity stage. The results show that the RAC frame structure has reasonable deformability when compared with natural aggregate concrete frame structures. The maximum inter-story drift ratios of the RAC frame model under frequent and rare intensity 8 test phases are 1/266 and 1/29, respectively, which are larger than the allowable value of 1/500 and 1/50 according to Chinese seismic design requirements. Nevertheless, the RAC frame structure does not collapse under base excitations with PGAs from 0.066 g up to 1.170 g.     

作为复杂适应系统的农业文化遗产：复杂性的挑战

本文首先阐述了农业系统的复杂性,并对农业系统所面对不确定性,以及外部系统的冲击和压力而形成的动态性进行了分析,提出“复杂适应性系统理论”为研究活态的农业系统,尤其为研究中国的全球重要农业文化遗产（GIAHS）提供了可能,而这些农业文化遗产系统（或其中某些部分）对于研究抵抗力和自我良性管理具有重要的意义.本文认为当前研究中的相关方法将会对整个系统的认识产生新的见解,同时避免把系统分解为各组分进行微观研究再重新还原成整体的研究思路.本文通过综述与GIAHS相关的方法并将旅游引入农村系统（作为一种扰动）,认为可以创造新的方法来认识农村发展干预措施对古老景观的影响,特别是分布在中国农村的许多景观.