河道洪水实时预报的半自适应模型研究

提出和讨论了基于马斯京根流量演算河道洪水实时预报的半自适应滤波模型.在该模型中量测误差系列的协方差矩阵可以通过信息更新系列实时估计出来,只有模型误差系列的协方差矩阵需要预先给出.提出了一个处理区间入流较为合理、方便的方法.通过验证和应用说明了该模型的合理性.     

The bayesian probabilistic prediction of the next earthquake in the ometepec segment of the mexican subduction zone

A predictive equation to estimate the next interoccurrence time () for the next earthquake (M6) in the Ometepec segment is presented, based on Bayes' theorem and the Gaussian process.Bayes' theorem is used to relate the Gaussian process to both a log-normal distribution of recurrence times () and a log-normal distribution of magnitudes (M) (Nishenko andBuland, 1987;Lomnitz, 1964). We constructed two new random variablesX=InM andY=In with normal marginal densities, and based on the Gaussian process model we assume that their joint density is normal. Using this information, we determine the Bayesian conditional probability. Finally, a predictive equation is derived, based on the criterion of maximization of the Bayesian conditional probability. The model forecasts the next interoccurrence time, conditional on the magnitude of the last event.Realistic estimates of future damaging earthquakes are based on relocated historical earthquakes. However, at the present time there is a controversy between Nishenko-Singh and Gonzalez-Ruiz-Mc-Nally concerning the rupturing process of the 1907 earthquake. We use our Bayesian analysis to examine and discuss this very important controversy. To clarify to the full significance of the analysis, we put forward the results using two catalogues: (1) The Ometepec catalogue without the 1907 earthquake (González-Ruíz-McNally), and (2) the Ometepec catalogue including the 1907 earthquake (Nishenko-Singh).The comparison of the prediction error reveals that in the Nishenko-Singh catalogue, the errors are considerably smaller than the average error for the González-Ruíz-McNally catalogue of relocated events.Finally, using the Nishenko-Singh catalogue which locates the 1907 event inside the Ometepec segment, we conclude that the next expected damaging earthquake (M6.0) will occur approximately within the next time interval =11.82 years from the last event (which occurred on July 2, 1984), or equivalently will probably occur in April, 1996.     

贵州威宁X波段双偏振雷达反射率因子的衰减订正分析

针对贵州威宁X波段双偏振雷达的衰减订正问题,在利用综合小波去噪方法对差分传播相移ФDP进行质量控制基础上,基于自适应衰减订正算法对雷达反射率因子ZH进行衰减订正分析,订正结果与昭通C波段新一代天气雷达进行对比,结果表明：（1）综合小波去噪能够有效去除ФDP存在的脉动和毛刺,保证ФDP的连续性和平滑度;（2）订正前后雷达反射率因子在距离雷达较近处（20-35 km）强度廓线基本重合,订正前后差别不大,随着对流区（雨区）距离的增加,电磁信号出现衰减,订正后反射率值加强,总体上订正后的反射率值比订正前高1-12 dB,其中在35～75 km距离范围内,订正后的反射率值达到50 dBz以上,雷达反射率因子更加接近真实情况;（3）使用综合小波去噪配合自适应衰减订正算法可以提高雷达反射率因子衰减订正的准确率,方法具有普适性,在今后科研业务中可以采用该订正方法以进一步提高对粒子相态识别、降水估测精度。     

Models for Support and Information Effects: A Comparative Study

The recoverable reserves in an ore deposit depend on several factors, in particular the size of the selective mining units (support effect) and the misclassifications when sending these units to mill or dump according to their estimated grade (information effect). Both effects imply a loss of selectivity and have to be correctly forecasted. In this work, several models are reviewed and applied to a synthetic ore deposit characterized by a highly skewed grade histogram and a spatial connectivity of high grades. The affine correction, mosaic correction, and discrete Gaussian model are compared when assessing the global recoverable reserves, whereas local estimations are performed by indicator kriging with affine correction, bigaussian disjunctive kriging, and multigaussian conditional expectation. Despite their convenience and simplicity, distribution-free methods like affine correction or indicator kriging have a poorer accuracy than the other methods. In the global framework, the discrete Gaussian model is a better alternative and is based on mild assumptions. Local estimations are not accurate and may be improved by resorting to a more suitable parametric model or to conditional simulations.     

Groundwater recharge and sustainability in the High Plains aquifer in Kansas, USA

Sustainable use of groundwater must ensure not only that the future resource is not threatened by overuse, but also that natural environments that depend on the resource, such as stream baseflows, riparian vegetation, aquatic ecosystems, and wetlands are protected. To properly manage groundwater resources, accurate information about the inputs (recharge) and outputs (pumpage and natural discharge) within each groundwater basin is needed so that the long-term behavior of the aquifer and its sustainable yield can be estimated or reassessed. As a first step towards this effort, this work highlights some key groundwater recharge studies in the Kansas High Plains at different scales, such as regional soil-water budget and groundwater modeling studies, county-scale groundwater recharge studies, as well as field-experimental local studies, including some original new findings, with an emphasis on assumptions and limitations as well as on environmental factors affecting recharge processes. The general impact of irrigation and cultivation on recharge is to appreciably increase the amount of recharge, and in many cases to exceed precipitation as the predominant source of recharge. The imbalance between the water input (recharge) to the High Plains aquifer and the output (pumpage and stream baseflows primarily) is shown to be severe, and responses to stabilize the system by reducing water use, increasing irrigation efficiency, adopting water-saving land-use practices, and other measures are outlined. Finally, the basic steps necessary to move towards sustainable use of groundwater in the High Plains are delineated, such as improving the knowledge base, reporting and providing access to information, furthering public education, as well as promoting better understanding of the publics attitudinal motivations; adopting the ecosystem and adaptive management approaches to managing groundwater; further improving water efficiency; exploiting the full potential of dryland and biosaline agriculture; and adopting a goal of long-term sustainable use.

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Resumen El uso sostenible de aguas subterráneas debe garantizar tanto que el recurso futuro no esté amenazado por sobreutilización como que los ambientes naturales dependientes del recurso sean protegidos (ie el flujo base de los arroyos, la vegetación ripariana, los ecosistemas acuáticos y los pantanos). El manejo adecuado de los recursos de aguas subterráneas requiere información precisa con respecto a los influjos (recarga) y descargas (bombeo y descarga natural) en cada cuenca de aguas subterráneas de tal manera que se pueda estimar o reevaluar el comportamiento de largo plazo del acuífero y su tasa de sotenibilidad. En un primer paso hacia esta meta, este trabajo destaca algunos estudios claves de recarga de aguas subterráneas en las llanuras altas de Kansas. Dichos estudios se concentran en diferentes escalas: estudios regionales del presupuesto para aguas del suelo y modelos de aguas subterráneas, estudios de recarga de aguas subterráneas a nivel provincial y estudios locales experimentales de terrenos que incluyen algunos interesantes descubrimientos nuevos. Estas investigaciones comparten el énfasis en los presupuestos de partida y las limitaciones así como en los factores ambientales que afectan los procesos de recarga. El impacto general de las irrigaciones y cultivos sobre la recarga es un obvio incremento en el monto de recarga y en muchos casos excede a la precipitación como la fuente principal de recarga. Se puede observar que el desequilibrio entre el influjo de agua (recarga) del acuífero de las llanuras altas y la descarga (bombeo y flujos base de los arroyos principalmente) es severo. Asimismo, se describen las respuestas para estabilizar el sistema a través de la reducción del uso de agua por medio del incremento de la eficiencia de las irrigaciones y de la adopción de las prácticas de ahorro de agua y del uso de tierras así como otras medidas adicionales. Finalmente se describen los pasos básicos necesarios para evolucionar hacia el uso sostenible de las aguas subterráneas en las llanuras altas de Kansas. Estos pasos están constituidos por una mejora del conocimiento base, comunicar y proporcionar fácil acceso a la información, mejorar el conocimiento público general así como promover un mejor entendimiento de las motivaciones para las actitudes de la comunidad, adoptar los enfoques administrativos de ecosistemas y administración adaptable en el manejo de las aguas subterráneas, continuar las mejoras del uso eficiente del agua, explotar el potencial de la agricultura de terrenos áridos y biosalina y adoptar como meta el uso sostenible a largo plazo.

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Résumé Lutilisation durable de leau souterraine doit permettre non seulement que la pérennité de leau ne soit pas menacée, mais aussi que les environnements naturels qui dépendent de cette ressource, tels que la végétation riveraine, les écosystemes aquatiques et les milieux humides, soient protégés. Afin dassurer une gestion appropriée des ressources en eau souterraine, une information précise concernant les entrées (recharge) et les sorties (décharge naturelle et pompage) deau dans chacun des bassins est nécessaire afin que le comportement à long terme de laquifère et le taux de pompage durable puissent être estimés. En guise dinitiative, ce travail illustre certaines études clé concernant la recharge de leau souterraine à plusieurs échelles dans les hautes plaines du Kansas. Ces études comprennent le bilan sol-eau et la modélisation numérique à léchelle régionale, létude de la recharge des nappes souterraines à léchelle du comté, des études expérimentales à petite échelle et certaines découvertes originales. Lors de la présentation de ces études, lemphase est portée sur les hypothèses et limitations ainsi que sur les facteurs environmentaux qui affectent les processus de recharge. En général, les effets de lirrigation et de lagriculture sur la recharge sont daugmenter considérablement le taux de recharge, et dans plusieurs cas, dexcéder les précipitations comme principale source de recharge. Le déséquilibre entre les intrants deau (recharge) et entrants (pompage et écoulement de base dans les rivières) dans laquifère des hautes plaines est très important. Les résultats des efforts de stabilisation du système aquifère en diminuant lutilisation deau, en améliorant lefficacité des techniques dirrigation, en adoptant des pratiques dutilisation du territoire qui réduisent lutilisation deau et en adoptant certaines autres mesures sont présentés. Enfin, les étapes de base nécessaires afin datteindre une utilisation durable de leau souterraine dans les hautes plaines sontexposées. Elles comprennent lamélioration des connaissance de base, lapromotion dune meilleure compréhension de la motivation et de lattitudedu public, ladoption dune approche de gestion de leau souterraineadaptable et basée sur les écosystèmes, lamélioration de lefficacitédutilisation de leau, lexploitation du plein potentiel de lagriculturebiosaline et en milieu aride, et ladoption dun objectif pourlutilisation durable à long terme.

     

基于自适应BP网络的涌潮波速计算模型

运用BP网络附加动量法和自适应学习速率法，建立神经网络模型，模拟计算涌潮波速。根据部分试验数据对网络进行训练，确定相关参数，建立涌潮波速计算模型，同时利用其余部分试验数据对模型进行检验，模拟结果与试验数据吻合较好，相关程度高，表明神经网络模型用于计算涌潮波速是合适的。     

有ARMA噪声的一种参数估计的优效性

对于有ARMA噪声的线性回归模型,本文给出了只用递推进行模型辨识和参数估计的线性方法。若用所计算得到的回归残差作为数据,采用Hannan-Rissanen的线性估计法求ARMA噪声的参数估计,则本文证明了估计是强相容的,且对正态序列,估计具有渐近正态优效性。     

Characteristics of abnormal waves in North Sea storm sea states

A data set of storm wave records from the North Sea is analysed. Using current definitions of abnormal waves, eight of the largest wind waves are defined as abnormal waves. Twenty-four of the largest waves in time series, with a height larger than 10 m and with big vertical asymmetry are chosen for further analysis. Their individual characteristics are investigated and related to the global sea state characteristics. A comparison between measured data, second-order theory predictions and offshore basin data is made. The results for the chosen waves do not coincide with predictions of second-order theory. Considering that wind wave is second- and third-order non-linear, a new relationship between skewness and kurtosis is proposed for the sea states in which extremely asymmetric large waves have occurred. Another relationship between kurtosis and abnormality index of maximum waves is proposed too.