Asymmetry of surface climate change under RCP2.6 projections from the CMIP5 models

The multi-model ensemble (MME) of 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) was used to analyze surface climate change in the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway RCP2.6, to reflect emission mitigation efforts. The maximum increase of surface air temperature (SAT) is 1.86°C relative to the pre-industrial level, achieving the target to limit the global warming to 2°C. Associated with the “increase-peak-decline” greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration pathway of RCP2.6, the global mean SAT of MME shows opposite trends during two time periods: warming during 2006–55 and cooling during 2056–2100. Our results indicate that spatial distribution of the linear trend of SAT during the warming period exhibited asymmetrical features compared to that during the cooling period. The warming during 2006–55 is distributed globally, while the cooling during 2056–2100 mainly occurred in the NH, the South Indian Ocean, and the tropical South Atlantic Ocean. Different dominant roles of heat flux in the two time periods partly explain the asymmetry. During the warming period, the latent heat flux and shortwave radiation both play major roles in heating the surface air. During the cooling period, the increase of net longwave radiation partly explains the cooling in the tropics and subtropics, which is associated with the decrease of total cloud amount. The decrease of the shortwave radiation accounts for the prominent cooling in the high latitudes of the NH. The surface sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and shortwave radiation collectively contribute to the especial warming phenomenon in the high-latitude of the SH during the cooling period.     

基于IPCC A1B情景的中国未来气候变化预估:多模式集合结果及其不确定性

利用耦合模式比较计划(CMIP3)提供的20世纪气候模拟试验(20C3M)及A1B情景预估试验,讨论了全球增暖情景下21世纪中期中国气候的可能变化。结果表明,A1B情景下,中国夏季降水变化在-0.1～1.1mm/d,冬季降水变化在-0.2～0.2mm/d。模式对降水变化的预估存在较大不确定性。无论冬夏,预估的全国表面气温都将升高,升温幅度在1.2～2.8℃;随纬度升高,增暖幅度相应增大。模式对表面气温变化的预估能力强于对降水变化的预估能力。在A1B情景下,东亚夏季风增强,而冬季风则略为减弱,东亚夏季风雨带到达最北后南撤的时间较之20C3M滞后约一个月。     

Change in Extreme Climate Events over China Based on CMIP5

The changes in a selection of extreme climate indices(maximum of daily maximum temperature(TXx),minimum of daily minimum temperature(TNn),annual total precipitation when the daily precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation(very wet days,R95p),and the maximum number of consecutive days with less than 1 mm of precipitation(consecutive dry days,CDD))were projected using multi-model results from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in the early,middle,and latter parts of the 21st century under different Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emissions scenarios.The results suggest that TXx and TNn will increase in the future and,moreover,the increases of TNn under all RCPs are larger than those of TXx.R95p is projected to increase and CDD to decrease significantly.The changes in TXx,TNn,R95p,and CDD in eight sub-regions of China are different in the three periods of the 21st century,and the ranges of change for the four indices under the higher emissions scenario are projected to be larger than those under the lower emissions scenario.The multi-model simulations show remarkable consistency in their projection of the extreme temperature indices,but poor consistency with respect to the extreme precipitation indices.More substantial inconsistency is found in those regions where high and low temperatures are likely to happen for TXx and TNn,respectively.For extreme precipitation events(R95p),greater uncertainty appears in most of the southern regions,while for drought events(CDD)it appears in the basins of Xinjiang.The uncertainty in the future changes of the extreme climate indices increases with the increasing severity of the emissions scenario.     

2011—2050年长江流域气候变化预估问题的探讨

利用长江流域1961—2008年观测气象资料,对IPCC 第四次评估报告中12个全球气候模式及所有模式集合平均进行比较验证,结果表明：MIUB_ECHO_G模式对该地区降水模拟能力较强,NCAR_CCSM3模式对温度模拟效果较好。进一步利用MIUB_ECHO_G模式和NCAR_CCSM3模式结果在SRES-A2、-A1B、-B1 3种排放情景下的降水和温度数据,分析2011—2050年3种排放情景下长江流域降水和温度变化特征。结果表明,2011—2050年长江流域降水变化趋势不明显,温度呈增加趋势,增幅在2℃内。     

南极地区气候系统变化: 过去、现在和将来

南极科学委员会（SCAR）下属的"南极与全球气候系统（AGCS）计划"专家委员会发布了"南极与南大洋气候系统（SASOCS）"白皮书,重点评估了过去50 a南极地区气候系统的变化并预估了未来100 a情景。白皮书总体认为,过去50 a南极气候系统变化表现出很强的区域特征。南极半岛地区升温明显,半岛及亚南极岛屿上的冰川均处于退缩状态;南半球环状模（SAM）转为正位相,西南极上空的暖湿气团入侵加强,南极冬季对流层有升温趋势,平流层变冷,极涡消退日期推迟;东南极外围的南极底层水变淡,Weddell海区的底层水有变暖趋势。虽有上述区域变化,整个南极地区在过去50 a中近地面气温并无明显升高,降水亦无明显增加。自20世纪80年代以来海冰面积也无明显变化,只在某些扇区变化强烈。模式预估结果为：到21世纪末南极内陆地区将增暖（3.4±1.0）℃, 海冰面积将缩小约30%。现有的冰盖模式尚不足以回答未来气候变暖情景下冰盖融化与海平面变化之间的定量关系,有待更深入研究。     

气候系统模式对Hadley环流的模拟和未来变化预估

针对全球变暖背景下未来Hadley环流将如何变化这一问题,评估了气候系统模式对1970~1999年Hadley环流时空特征的模拟效能,并在此基础上选取能合理模拟Hadley环流空间结构、强度指数和边界指数变化的3个模式,通过多模式集合方法预估了未来Hadley环流在A1B排放情景下的可能演变。预估结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,相比于1970~1999年,到本世纪末期(2070~2099年),北半球Hadley环流在4个季节都将减弱,春季变化幅度相对较弱;南半球Hadley环流在冬季和夏季也会减弱,而在春季和秋季的变化不明显。另外,北半球Hadley环流的北边界除在夏季向南收缩外,在其它3个季节均向北伸展;南半球Hadley环流的南边界在4个季节均向极地方向移动。两个半球的Hadley环流在垂直方向还将向对流层上层伸展。       

一种改进投影系数计算的快速ART算法

代数重建(ART)是图像重建领域中的重要方法。为了提高ART算法的重建速度,本文提出了一个新的通过判别射线与网格的相交状况快速计算投影系数的算法。该算法主要使用简单的诸如加减法以及比较运算来计算投影系数。避免了传统算法中的求交排序计算,因而重建速度大大提升。仿真实验使用Shepp-Logan模型,实验结果显示该算法重建效率优于传统算法。     

一个关于空间曲线的拟合方法

由于空间曲线方程较平面曲线复杂，其形式具有不唯一性，在对空间一组点进行拟合时，其精确表达式难以获得，在一些常用数学软件如Matlab、Mathematica中均未给出这类曲线的拟合方法。因此，笔者设计了一个关于空间曲线的拟合方法，并通过实例验证了该方法对某些空间曲线的有效性。     

利用钻孔资料确定岩层产状

过去确定某深度岩层产状是通过建立标志层,且把它在三个不在一条直线上的相邻钻孔中出理的深度换算成绝对高程后,用“三点法”几何求解,或者经过对地表岩层产状的系统测量和分析推测得出。本文将介绍利用一个钻孔连续三次进尺(我任意三个钻孔)的资料,用“数学计算法”求其深度岩层的产状,并且对一个钻孔从上到下每三次进尺迭进计算一次,确定钻孔经过的岩层、褶皱轴面、断层面产状及断层性质,编出完整的钻孔剖面。     

未来气候变暖情形下青藏高原多年冻土分布初探

基于未来温室气体中等排放情景下气候模式给出的气候预测结果的高分辨率降尺度分析结果,运用两种方法(年均温法和高程模型法)模拟了1980-1999,2030-2049和2080-2099年3个时段青藏高原多年冻土分布.结果表明,以年均地温-1℃作为多年冻土划分依据的年均温法模拟的目前(1980-1999年)高原多年冻土面积为127.99万km2,与世界数据中心给出的青藏高原现代多年冻土面积为129.12万km2的估算接近(误差率仅为0.86%);到本世纪中期(2030-2049年),高原多年冻土面积减少为87.26万km2,退化率达到31.82%;而到本世纪末(2080-2099年),高原多年冻土面积只有69.25万km2,较目前将退化45.89%.不同高度带的对比分析还发现,与高原及其邻近地区年均气温的升高一般随海拔高度而增加的趋势相反,未来高原多年冻土的退化率将随着海拔高度增加而降低.在全球变暖过程中的冻土退化,特别是高原东南部冻土向西北部的逐步退缩,对高原冻土区工程稳定性的影响应引起我们的足够重视.