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71.
72.
By using the hourly data from surface meteorological stations in China, the 3-hour precipitation data from
CRA-Interim (Chinese Reanalysis-Interim), ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis 5) and JRA-55 (Japanese Reanalysis-55) are
compared, both on the spatial-temporal distributions and on bias with observation precipitation in China. The results
show that: (1) The three sets of reanalysis datasets can all reflect the basic spatial distribution characteristics of annual
average precipitation in China. The simulation of topographic forced precipitation in complex terrain by CRA-interim is
more detailed, while CRA-interim has larger negative bias in central and East China, and larger positive bias in
southwest China. (2) In terms of seasonal precipitation, the three sets of reanalysis datasets overestimate the precipitation
in the heavy rainfall zone of spring and summer, especially in southwest China. CRA interim’s location of the rain belt
in the First Rainy Season in South China is west by south, the summer precipitation has positive bias in southwest and
South China. (3) All of the reanalysis datasets can basically reflect the distribution difference of inter-annual variation of
drought and flood, but the overall the CRA-Interim generally shows negative bias, while the ERA5 and JRA-55 exhibit
positive bias. (4) For the diurnal variation of precipitation in summer, all the reanalysis datasets perform better in
simulating the daytime precipitation than in the night, and bias of CRA-interim is less in southeast and northeast than
elsewhere. (5) ERA5 generally performs the best on the evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecast, the JRA-55 is
the next, followed by the CRA-Interim. CRA-Interim has higher missing rate and lower threat score for heavy rains;
however, at the level of downpour, the CRA-Interim performs slightly better. 相似文献
73.
应用气相色谱-气体同位素质谱(GC-C-IRMS)分析正构烷烃单体碳同位素之前,需要对饱和烃样品中正构烷烃和异构烷烃进行预分离、富集,在预分离和富集过程中正构烷烃单体碳同位素是否发生分馏是高精度分析正构烷烃单体碳同位素比值(δ~(13)C)的关键。本文以正构烷烃混合溶液为对象,利用柱色谱、5■分子筛络合、环己烷-正戊烷混合溶剂两次洗脱,GC-C-IRMS分析正构烷烃单体碳同位素,研究前处理过程中正构烷烃单体碳同位素是否发生分馏。结果表明:使用柱色谱分离前后,多数正构烷烃单体碳同位素比值相差-0.2‰~0.2‰;当5■分子筛不完全络合时,未络合的正构烷烃单体碳同位素比值偏重约0.7‰,可能发生了微弱的碳同位素分馏,但并未影响洗脱后的正构烷烃单体碳同位素比值;使用环己烷-正戊烷混合溶剂洗脱前后,碳同位素比值相差-0.2‰~0.5‰,以同样方式洗脱第二次,获得的正构烷烃单体碳同位素比值与模拟样品相差-0.3‰~0.2‰。分析不同回收率(20%)正构烷烃的单体碳同位素比值,处理前后的差值基本在0.3‰以内,可见当正构烷烃回收率低至20%左右时,其单体碳同位素仍未发生明显分馏。柱色谱分离-5■分子筛络合-混合溶剂洗脱方法适用于回收率大于20%的正构烷烃单体碳同位素分析。 相似文献
74.
模式内部变率是模拟结果不确定性的重要来源,然而它对于1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响尚不清楚。因此,基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多模式数据研究了模式内部变率对1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响以及对未来排放情景的敏感性。结果表明,模式内部变率对升温阈值出现时间模拟的影响与外强迫的影响相当,单个模式内部不同成员达到全球平均1.5℃或2℃增温的年份相差2~12年;其影响具有明显的空间差异,影响极大值出现在欧亚大陆以北洋面、白令海峡周围区域、北美东北部及其与格陵兰岛之间的海域、南半球高纬地区等;低排放情景下模式内部变率的影响大于高排放情景。 相似文献
75.
Soil moisture retrieval from satellite images and its application to heavy rainfall simulation in eastern China 总被引:7,自引:4,他引:3
The soil water index (SWI) from satellite remote sensing and the observational soil moisture from agricultural meteorological stations in eastern China are used to retrieve soil moisture. The analysis of correlation coefficient (CORR), root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and bias (BIAS) shows that the retrieved soil moisture is convincible and close to the observation. The method can overcome the difficulties in soil moisture observation on a large scale and the retrieved soil moisture may reflect the distribution of the real soil moisture objectively. The retrieved soil moisture is used as an initial scheme to replace initial conditions of soil moisture (NCEP) in the model MM5V3 to simulate the heavy rainfall in 1998. Three heavy rainfall processes during 13–14 June, 18–22 June, and 21–26 July 1998 in the Yangtze River valley are analyzed. The first two processes show that the intensity and location of simulated precipitation from SWI are better than those from NCEP and closer to the observed values. The simulated heavy rainfall for 21–26 July shows that the update of soil moisture initial conditions can improve the model’s performance. The relationship between soil moisture and rainfall may explain that the stronger rainfall intensity for SWI in the Yangtze River valley is the result of the greater simulated soil moisture from SWI prior to the heavy rainfall date than that from NCEP, and leads to the decline of temperature in the corresponding area in the heavy rainfall days. Detailed analysis of the heavy rainfall on 13–14 June shows that both land-atmosphere interactions and atmospheric circulation were responsible for the heavy rainfall, and it shows how the SWI simulation improves the simulation. The development of mesoscale systems plays an important role in the simulation regarding the change of initial soil moisture for SWI. 相似文献
76.
网格嵌套技术对一次中尺度对流系统降水过程模拟的影响 总被引:6,自引:5,他引:1
利用非静力中尺度模式MM5对2002年7月22日12:00~23日12:00(世界时,下同)长江流域的一次梅雨锋暴雨过程进行数值模拟试验,主要讨论了网格嵌套技术对降水和中尺度对流系统的影响。结果表明:三重嵌套在D1,D2域选用积云参数化方案后,模拟的雨区收缩,虚假降水中心相对减少,降水强度及分布更接近观测值。在模式非线性动力、热力及湿物理过程共同驱动下,通过嵌套网格的双向相互作用,使可分辨云尺度的细网格域D3将其信息通过嵌套边界向次细网格域D2传递,然后再通过D2域边界向粗网格域D1域传递。同样,动力、热力反馈也会反向进行。结果将有助于改进各网格域的预报效果。但对D1网格域系统位置及其发展演变过程的影响相对小些;另外,通过双向多重嵌套,可提高模式预报区域的分辨率,特别是提高模式关键预报区域的分辨率,这也就有可能改进预报的中尺度物理场,使其能够较真实地描写大气实况。 相似文献
77.
78.
MM5三维变分系统在北京地区冷暖季背景场误差的对比分析 总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2
NMC方法是目前较广泛采用的一种对模式背景场误差协方差进行统计分析的一种方法。本文根据积累的2002年8月份和2003年2月份各一个月模式预报结果,采用NMC方法,计算了中尺度模式MM5V3在北京地区的冷暖季背景场误差,详细给出其气候统计特征。通过对比分析发现,背景场误差特征对于不同的模式变量、水平分辨率、垂直层各不相同,冷暖季背景场误差也有不同的特征,其差别主要表现在风场。这些特征与模式模拟区域的平均天气状况相对应,同化应该在各模式区域分别进行。MM5三维变分系统在北京地区的实际应用中,应发展根据实际季节变换背景场误差协方差矩阵的方法。 相似文献
79.
Future Changes in Extreme High Temperature over China at 1.5℃-5℃ Global Warming Based on CMIP6 Simulations 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Extreme high temperature(EHT)events are among the most impact-related consequences related to climate change,especially for China,a nation with a large population that is vulnerable to the climate warming.Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),this study assesses future EHT changes across China at five specific global warming thresholds(1.5℃-5℃).The results indicate that global mean temperature will increase by 1.5℃/2℃ before 2030/2050 relative to pre-industrial levels(1861-1900)under three future scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5),and warming will occur faster under SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5.Under SSP5-8.5,global warming will eventually exceed 5℃ by 2100,while under SSP1-2.6,it will stabilize around 2℃ after 2050.In China,most of the areas where warming exceeds global average levels will be located in Tibet and northern China(Northwest China,North China and Northeast China),covering 50%-70%of the country.Furthermore,about 0.19-0.44 billion people(accounting for 16%-41%of the national population)will experience warming above the global average.Compared to present-day(1995-2014),the warmest day(TXx)will increase most notably in northern China,while the number of warm days(TX90p)and warm spell duration indicator(WSDI)will increase most profoundly in southern China.For example,relative to the present-day,TXx will increase by 1℃-5℃ in northern China,and TX90p(WSDI)will increase by 25-150(10-80)days in southern China at 1.5℃-5℃ global warming.Compared to 2℃-5℃,limiting global warming to 1.5℃ will help avoid about 36%-87%of the EHT increases in China. 相似文献
80.
基于倾斜摄影技术的戈壁灌丛沙丘形态反演及其对粉尘释放研究的意义 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
灌丛沙丘是广泛分布于西北干旱区的风沙地貌。戈壁上发育的灌丛沙丘在戈壁沙尘释放和固沙能力方面具有重要的指示意义和应用价值。本研究采用倾斜摄影技术对戈壁上的灌丛沙丘形态特征进行观测和提取,并分析沉积物特征,计算戈壁灌丛沙丘的固沙能力,为沙尘释放研究提供依据。结果表明:(1)戈壁上发育的灌丛沙丘有明显的空间分布格局,即主要分布在干河床的两侧和地势低洼地区。(2)戈壁灌丛沙丘在形态上和其他地表灌丛沙丘类似,但沙丘的长度、宽度、底面积、体积等小得多,而且参数之间具有明显的相关关系。(3)沉积物的累积概率曲线表现为三段式,跃移组分的粒度范围(50~700 μm)明显与以往研究不同。沙丘内部和表层的粉沙和黏土含量分别为4.47%和5.24%,从而说明灌丛沙丘能够捕获戈壁上释放的粉尘物质。(4)戈壁地区单个灌丛沙丘的粉尘释放量约0.05~0.08 m3,固沙能力最大可达18.71 m3。 相似文献