多重网格法在MM5自适应模式中的应用

将多重网格法应用于MM5中来加速自适应网格的生成,并用这种方法来模拟2002年6月17-18日发生在江南和华南的暴雨过程。试验表明：在收敛精度要求高的情况下自适应模式模拟结果的精度高于均匀网格模式,且多重网格法有助于提高运算效率。     

日本数值预报产品在MM5模式中的应用

针对目前中尺度数值模式MM5所用初始场局限于NCEP和T213的现状,提出了应用日本数值预报产品(JMA,下同)格点资料做初始场的想法,并对试验过程进行了介绍。对台风Ranan im(0414)登陆浙江的路径、移速、强度和降水等方面的数值模拟结果表明,应用了JMA资料的MM5模式在原有基础上提高了预报精度,尤其在台风登陆时间和登陆地点上提高更为明显。     

Estimating Sea-Level Allowances for Atlantic Canada using the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

Abstract

Sea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland.     

Weak ENSO Asymmetry Due to Weak Nonlinear Air–Sea Interaction in CMIP5 Climate Models

State-of-the-art climate models have long-standing intrinsic biases that limit their simulation and projection capabilities.Significantly weak ENSO asymmetry and weakly nonlinear air–sea interaction over the tropical Pacific was found in CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5) climate models compared with observation. The results suggest that a weak nonlinear air–sea interaction may play a role in the weak ENSO asymmetry. Moreover, a weak nonlinearity in air–sea interaction in the models may be associated with the biases in the mean climate—the cold biases in the equatorial central Pacific. The excessive cold tongue bias pushes the deep convection far west to the western Pacific warm pool region and suppresses its development in the central equatorial Pacific. The deep convection has difficulties in further moving to the eastern equatorial Pacific, especially during extreme El Ni o events, which confines the westerly wind anomaly to the western Pacific. This weakens the eastern Pacific El Ni o events, especially the extreme El Ni o events, and thus leads to the weakened ENSO asymmetry in climate models. An accurate mean state structure(especially a realistic cold tongue and deep convection) is critical to reproducing ENSO events in climate models. Our evaluation also revealed that ENSO statistics in CMIP5 climate models are slightly improved compared with those of CMIP3. The weak ENSO asymmetry in CMIP5 is closer to the observation. It is more evident in CMIP5 that strong ENSO activities are usually accompanied by strong ENSO asymmetry, and the diversity of ENSO amplitude is reduced.     

自适应网格技术在MM5中的应用研究

结合一次暴雨过程，将自适应网格技术应用于中尺度模式MM5中进行数值试验，同时对比自适应网格方案和固定网格方案的优劣，对模拟结果作了诊断分析。结果表明：对于此次降水过程，自适应网格模拟的效果取决于一些参数的选择。     

鲁东南地区"2004.07"大暴雨中尺度分析与数值模拟

对2004年7月16、17日出现在临沂市的大暴雨过程的进行中尺度分析,应用 MM5v3.6 非静力中尺度模式,用美国 NCEP 再分析资料作初始场,采用双向三重嵌套模式,进行高分辨的数值模拟.分析揭示了这次大暴雨的天气尺度背景和中尺度系统的发生和发展的结构及演变,结果表明高低空急流的有利配合为暴雨过程提供环境条件,大暴雨出现在高空西风急流轴线出口区与低空西南风急流轴向出口区北侧之间;数值模拟看出在强降水产生时,雨区上空存在较强的中-β尺度系统,该系统有强而窄的垂直上升运动、上下垂直的辐散辐合结构,强烈的对流不稳定,在对流层低层还存在对称性不稳定.低空急流提供充沛的水汽,并通过强而窄的上升运动向高层输送.     

黑龙江省中尺度数值预报业务系统

黑龙江省气象台于2001年8月引进了MM5模式，并结合业务和服务的实际需要对其有关参数进行了确定，建立了黑龙江省中尺度数值预报业务系统。已经在黑龙江省气象台实时运行，并应用到短期预报的业务工作中。系统运行稳定，预报结果有一定的参考价值。     

藉物理耗散技术改进强降水数值模拟的初步研究

利用PSU/NCAR非静力中尺度模式MM5V3,对影响我国北方一次非汛期突发性强降水过程实例,进行了三重嵌套模式区域采用若干不同降水方案(特别是采用显式微物理方案与积云对流参数化方案若干组合)的对比试验,在揭示物理耗散技术正是通过将模式水平扩散方案纠正到符合热力学第二定律的约束而使该中尺度模式的模拟精度和模拟质量获得明显提高的物理实质的同时,从一个侧面证实了数值模式引入第二定律对提高数值天气预报准确率的重要性。     

青藏高原东北侧冰雹微物理过程模拟研究

以青藏高原东北侧及毗邻地区诱发冰雹灾害的东移短小切变线天气过程为研究背景,采用中国科学院大气物理研究所三维冰雹云分档模式,用MM5V3中尺度气象模式提供冰雹云模拟研究所需的环境大气状况,模拟研究了冰雹形成和增长的微物理过程。结果表明：模式再现了当时冰雹、大风及暴雨的实况;中尺度水分和动力条件是冰雹形成和增长的重要因素,它们决定了冰雹云的强度和冰雹的大小;冰雹形成和增长过程中的微物理过程决定了冰雹云的消亡,冰雹在空中形成的潜热释放延长了降雹的时间;云中冰雹发生、增长的主要区域和云内上升气流配合良好,是防雹消雹的主要范围。     

MM5中新边界层方案的引入和对比试验

本文介绍了一种新的边界层方案，即E－ε－1方案，并用五种层结下的通量廓线关系计算地面通量，将其引入到中尺度数值天气预报模式MM5中，并用新的边界层方案对江淮流域存季暴雨进行了短期模拟，与此同时，对新的方案和模式原有的各种边界层方案作了比较，对此得到了一些有价值的结果。