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61.
根据土壤水分平衡原理,建立了一个反映土壤渍水、可与小麦生长模型耦合的土壤水分动态模型,尤其考虑了因地下水位较浅而引起的毛管上升水量和土壤导水率的变化对土壤含水量的影响。采用盆栽小麦水分试验资料验证了日蒸散量的模拟值,利用湖北荆州农业气象试验站和江苏金坛农业气象试验站的土壤水分历史资料对建立的模型进行了综合测试和验证,结果表明:蒸散量、地下水位和0~50 cm土壤含水量的模拟值与实测值具有较好的一致性,模型能可靠地预测多雨和渍水地区麦田土壤水分的变化动态 相似文献
62.
对华北地区冬小麦进行了水分胁迫实验,确定了冬小麦光合作用速率对水分胁迫的响应曲线,提出了农业干旱指数和农业干旱预警指数两个基本概念,在此基础上建立了具有明确生物学机理的华北农业干旱预测数值模式。对北京、石家庄、郑州和济南1998年至2000年432旬的农业干旱模拟结果表明:农业干旱预警定性准确率为90.7%,定量准确率在87.5%左右;此外,模拟表明模式也可以对区域农业干旱进行准确有效的预测。利用1961~2000年气象资料对北京等地区历年农业干旱进行数值分析,结果表明:不同于大气干旱,在自然气象条件下,北京等地区作物生长期内几乎每年都存在农业干旱现象,特别是冬小麦灌浆至成熟期每年均存在一次较为严重的农业干旱胁迫过程,但农业干旱胁迫程度年际间存在一定波动,功率谱分析表明其具有3~6年的周期变化规律。对平均气候状况下华北地区农业干旱进行了时空动态分析,结果发现在自然条件下,华北大部分地区冬小麦4月下旬至5月下旬,即大约在冬小麦开花、灌浆至成熟期,农业干旱胁迫指数存在一种自然的逐渐加强的动态过程,这与华北地区的农业生产实践是基本一致的。 相似文献
63.
Stanley A. Changnon 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(1):1-9
Winter storms are a major weather problem in the United States and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202
catastrophic winter storms involving ice storms, blizzards, and snowstorms, each causing >$5 million in damages, occurred
during 1949–2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts
of the contiguous United States, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred.
They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic
storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of nine storms, and one year had no storms. Temporal
distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms
were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing weather
conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation’s 202 storms during 1949–2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas
the nation’s storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease
in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm
intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting
a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms. 相似文献
64.
Stanley A. Changnon 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):465-470
Increasing losses of life and property and damages to the environment due to sleet and related winter storm conditions have
increased the need for long-term sleet storm data to better assess the point and regional risks of sleet and their long-term
variations. The areas of greatest losses and frequency of catastrophes caused by sleet during 1971–2007 are the Northeast
and Central regions of the U.S. These two regions experienced 72% of all the nation’s sleet losses. Most of the western U.S.
had no damaging sleet-related events or losses. When sleet losses occurred, they tended to be in 2, 3, or 4 adjacent states.
Sleet catastrophes were most common in January with 15 of the 30 events. The earliest storm occurred in October and the latest
in March. The temporal distributions of catastrophes and their losses during 1971–2007 were similar. Both showed a secondary
peak in 1976–1979, a low in 1988–1991, and then high values during the 1996–2007 period. The temporal distributions of damaging
storms and losses indicate an upward trend over time. 相似文献
65.
喜马拉雅山南坡冬季暴雪对高原南部冰芯中稳定同位素记录的影响 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
聂拉木气象站降水中 δ18O的变化表明 ,夏季降水中 δ18O为一低值阶段 ;冬季降水中 δ18O总的来说为一高值阶段 ,但冬季暴风雪中δ18O的值和夏季强的季风活动中降水的δ18O一样很低。由于该地区冬季降水十分活跃 ,冬季降水中 δ18O的变化对该地区冰芯记录将产生重要的影响。首先是用δ18O的季节变化来对冰芯定年产生一定的困难 ,其次喜马拉雅山中段冰芯中的δ18O记录不仅包括了夏季季风活动的强弱信息 ,而且冬季强的暴风雪过程也记录在内。 相似文献
66.
东亚冬季风活动与厄·尼诺的关系 总被引:11,自引:1,他引:11
本文利用1951—1986年全球月平均海平面气压资料以及赤道东太平洋的海温资料,研究了东亚冬季风的年际变化与厄·尼诺的关系,主要结果有:(1)东亚冬季风盛行期(10—3)赤道东太平洋海温与海平面气压场的密切相关区,主要位于亚洲南部和西太平洋(正相关)、澳洲北部(正相关)以及阿留申群岛地区(负相关)。(2)海温的变化一般超前冬季风的变化1—2个季节,以11月的海温与之相关最密切。(3)厄·尼诺年冬季,东亚大陆冷空气南下路径偏东,我国南方多雨。反厄·尼诺年相反,冷空气南下路径偏西,我国南方少雨。 相似文献
67.
基于加速器质谱仪AMS14C高精度定年,以及应用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(ICP-MS)对S10孔岩芯沉积物进行微量元素测试,对冲绳海槽中部沉积物的微量元素组成及其记录的物源和古环境信息展开研究。研究结果显示,稀土元素、Th、Nb和Ta元素反映陆源碎屑混合矿物的化学组成特征,Zr和Hf元素指示锆石矿物的化学组成,锆石主要为火山来源,Sc元素可能与铁镁物质有关。稀土元素分析表明沉积物主要由陆源和火山源物质组成,陆源物质主要来自长江和黄河,不同时期,各源区物质贡献量不同:16 500~11 600 a,长江、黄河为沉积物的主要物质来源;11 600~7 750 a,长江物质贡献减少,黄河物质为主;7 750~6 450 a,K-Ah火山物质为主,长江、黄河物质供给骤减;6 450~3 900 a,长江、黄河陆源物质输入增加,4 000 a左右受火山作用影响;3 900~1 900 a,长江、黄河陆源物质输入持续增多;1 900 a以来长江、黄河物质仍有增加,且以黄河物质为主。此外,物源判别公式研究显示台湾物质输入量不能有效反映黑潮演变,而长江、黄河物质输入量对17 000 a以来东亚冬季风的强弱变化有很好的指示,可作为东亚冬季风演变的新证据。这些研究结果表明,冲绳海槽中部微量元素研究可得到海槽17 000 a以来物源及东亚冬季风的演化情况,有助于重建全新世以来沉积物物源及古环境的演变历史。 相似文献
68.
A study of coccolith assemblages from a box core from the central South Yellow Sea(SYS) was performed revealing fluctuations on their relative abundance(%) that can be related to climatic and hydrographic changes over the last 230 years(1780–2011). Total coccolith abundances ranged from 7.0 to 55.1×10~6 coccoliths·g~(-1)sediment. Although the abundance of different species varied widely throughout the core, seven taxa dominated the assemblage. Among these species, Gephyrocapsa oceanica was the most dominant species, and it showed an average percentage of 50.1%. The pattern of G. oceanica(eutrophic species) was opposite to that of the combined percentage of Braarudosphaera bigelowii and Umbilicosphaera sibogae(both oligotrophic species), indicating that in the Yellow Sea(YS), the distribution pattern of G. oceanica might be characteristic of nutrient availability.Similar patterns between G. oceanica and the Siberian High were observed on an inter-decadal time scale,indicating that the East Asian Winter Monsoon(EAWM) may be an important driver of ecological changes in the YS. When the EAWM prevails, both the Yellow Sea Coastal Current(YSCC) and Yellow Sea Warm Current(YSWC)strengthen, and the increasing nutrient availability and warmer water brought by the strengthened YSWC favor eutrophic and warm-water coccolithophore species, such as G. oceanica. This likely mechanism demonstrates that coccolith assemblages can be used as benign and reliable proxy for climate change and surface oceanography. 相似文献
69.
中国南方冬季持续性温湿异常事件的分类和特征分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用1981-2010年中国测站逐日气温和降水异常序列,将中国南方冬季持续性异常事件分为冷湿、冷干、暖湿和暖干4类持续性异常事件,并用NCEP-DOE逐日再分析资料对各类持续性异常事件的环流特征进行了分析。结果表明,欧亚大陆中高纬度上空"北高南低"的异常环流形势使得温带急流减弱、副热带急流增强,有利于冷空气向南爆发;而中纬度地区"东高西低"的异常环流则对应西太平洋副热带高压增强北移和南支西风槽的活跃,有利于偏南风水汽输送达到中国南方地区,中国南方降水偏多。受南北异常环流的共同影响,中国南方冬季经常出现持续性异常天气,冷湿(低温雨雪冰冻)事件正是在上述两种异常环流型影响下发生的。因此,考虑与冷湿事件相联系的关键环流系统可能有助于提高中国南方冬季低温雨雪冰冻事件的预报能力。 相似文献
70.
This paper examines along-channel winds within Howe Sound, British Columbia, Canada, that occur from both the interior plateau out toward the coast as outflows and from the coast inland as inflows. First, the relationships between along-channel winds and pressure, temperature, and humidity are explored in Howe Sound–Cheakamus Valley. The pressure gradients between Pam Rocks and Squamish and Pam Rocks and Pemberton have the strongest correlations with outflow strength and that between Pam Rocks and Squamish has the strongest correlation with inflow strength. Outflows (inflows) have lower (higher) temperatures and dew point temperatures, except for the inflows in summer, which have lower dewpoint temperatures than the overall mean. Second, two case studies of outflow events are presented and described during the period of intensive observations prior to and during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics. The January 2010 outflow event is caused by a zone of strong across-barrier mean sea level pressure gradient. The pressure gradient is formed behind an Arctic front that moved southward across Howe Sound. The February 2010 outflow event is caused by an approaching sea level low pressure centre from the Pacific that formed a northeast–southwest mean sea level pressure gradient across southern British Columbia. In the January case, the outflow layer is about 1.5?km deep, while it is shallower in the February case. Only the January outflow case exhibits hydraulic behaviour. 相似文献