为全民创业提供优质气象服务在全民创业中加快气象事业发展--在江西省气象局党组扩大会议上的讲话(摘录)

结合部门实际。对江西气象部门如何领会和贯彻落实2005年全省领导干部会议精神,提出了具体的指导意见。讲话指出,全省各级气象部门干部职工,要把思想和行动进一步统一到全省领导干部会议精神上来,围绕为全民创业提供优质气象服务,找准自己的位置,为不同创业主体提供精细化、个性化的气象服务产品。拓宽为全民创业服务的气象信息传递渠道,强化安全气象和资源气象服务,开展全民创业技能培训和创业资讯服务,营造优化有利于全民创业的气象政务环境。努力满足全民创业对气象服务的迫切需求。讲话还强调,全省气象干部职工要强化创业理念,大力培育气象创业文化;加强气象能力建设,加快提升气象现代化水平和效益;适应中国气象事业发展战略,加快全省新一轮气象业务技术体制改革;坚持改革创新,做大做强做优气象科技服务;加强队伍建设,为事业发展提供智力支持和组织保证,努力在全民创业的热潮中,实现江西气象事业在新的起点上更快更好的发展。另外。讲话在总结分析上半年工作的基础上,结合全省领导干部会议精神。对2005年下半年的工作进行了全面的部署。认为2005年下半年,全省气象部门要狠抓目标管理,积极做好气象服务工作,下大力气促科技服务上新台阶;要加强与有关部门的共建共享工作。及时完成“十一五”规划的编制。大力推进业务技术体制改革和现代化建设;要加强党建和气象文化建设,并根据《江西省气象局关于加强基层台站建设的实施意见》,以及《全省县（市、区）气象局“五大工程”建设考评办法》。抓好基层台站建设。     

伊犁一次区域性暴雨分析

利用伊宁新一代天气雷达资料,结合高空和地面观测资料,分析了2010年7月19日伊犁地区一次局地暴雨天气过程。结果表明：此次强对流天气过程的主要影响系统为500 hPa中亚低槽、200hpa高空急流、低层风速辐合和地面雷暴高压。较强的层结不稳定和低层垂直风切变有利于对流的产生;云图和雷达资料分析表明,此次局地暴雨是由中尺度强对流云团产生,具有典型的对流单体形成、发展成回波短带合并形成带状回波,该带状回波最后演变成一个尺度较大的弓形回波。     

浅析2012年气象条件对达茂旗天然草场牧草生长的影响

文章分析了2012年气象条件对达茂旗天然草场牧草生长发育的影响。在主要气象条件的作用下．牧草平均高度为26cm,覆盖度65％,地上生物量1768kg／hm^2（鲜莺）,8月份然草场牧草平均高度达40cm,覆盖度75％．地上生物量3000kg／hm^2（鲜重）。     

一次持续空气污染过程的气象条件分析

2004年12月24-30日,淄博地区出现一次持续一周的强空气污染过程.本文分析了这次过程的主要污染物浓度变化特征和造成强污染的天气形势特点以及主要的气象变量分布特征.结果表明:高空维持稳定纬向环流、逆温层结持续存在、混合层厚度增加、低空风速小,导致污染物不能及时随大气扩散,污染物浓度增大.     

A Review of Radar- and Satellite-based Observational Studies and Nowcasting Techniques on Convection Initiation

Convection often produces severe weather which causes a great loss to human lives and properties. Precisely predicting the convection initiation process is crucial but challenging in operational convection nowcasting (0~2 h forecasting). Before the radar-defined CI occurring (e.g., the first occurrence of ≥35 dBZ echoes), observations at high spatial and temporal resolutions from weather radars and geostationary meteorological satellites can reveal precursor information such as the boundary-layer convergence lines and the rapid growth of newborn cumulus clouds. These radar- and satellite-observed precursor information are helpful for evaluating the pre-CI conditions and thus nowcasting the accurate CI timing and location. This paper reviewed the current status of radar- and satellite-based CI research and nowcasting techniques. The milestone works and the following studies in the last four decades were summarized to demonstrate how radar and satellite observations can be related to CI occurrence. The objectives and approaches of the CI research advance as the improvement in the capability of radars and were explained satellites. The research progress aids in the development of various CI nowcasting techniques. This paper introduced three well-established techniques that have been put into operational application, namely, ANC system, SATCAST algorithm, and UWCI algorithm. Some scientific issues with respect to radar- and satellite-based CI research and nowcasting were also presented.     

Simulations of the Impact of Lakes on Local and Regional Climate Over the Tibetan Plateau

ABSTRACT

Because of the high elevation and complex topography of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the role of lakes in the climate system over the Tibetan Plateau is not well understood. For this study, we investigated the impact of lake processes on local and regional climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which includes a one-dimensional physically based lake model. The first simulation with the WRF model was performed for the TP over the 2000–2010 period, and the second was carried out during the same period but with the lakes filled with nearby land-use types. Results with the lake simulation show that the model captures the spatial and temporal patterns of annual mean precipitation and temperature well over the TP. Through comparison of the two simulations, we found that the TP lakes mainly cool the near-surface air, inducing a decreasing sensible heat flux for the entire year. Meanwhile, stronger evaporation produced by the lakes is found in the fall. During the summer, the cooling effect of the lakes decreases precipitation in the surrounding area and generates anomalous circulation patterns. In conclusion, the TP lakes cool the near-surface atmosphere most of the time, weaken the sensible heat flux, and strengthen the latent heat flux, resulting in changes in mesoscale precipitation and regional-scale circulation.     

Assessing reference evapotranspiration at regional scale based on remote sensing,weather forecast and GIS tools

Reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) is a key component in efficient water management, especially in arid and semi-arid environments. However, accurate ET_o assessment at the regional scale is complicated by the limited number of weather stations and the strict requirements in terms of their location and surrounding physical conditions for the collection of valid weather data. In an attempt to overcome this limitation, new approaches based on the use of remote sensing techniques and weather forecast tools have been proposed.Use of the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility (LSA SAF) tool and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have allowed the design and development of innovative approaches for ET_o assessment, which are especially useful for areas lacking available weather data from weather stations. Thus, by identifying the best-performing interpolation approaches (such as the Thin Plate Splines, TPS) and by developing new approaches (such as the use of data from the most similar weather station, TS, or spatially distributed correction factors, CITS), errors as low as 1.1% were achieved for ET_o assessment. Spatial and temporal analyses reveal that the generated errors were smaller during spring and summer as well as in homogenous topographic areas.The proposed approaches not only enabled accurate calculations of seasonal and daily ET_o values, but also contributed to the development of a useful methodology for evaluating the optimum number of weather stations to be integrated into a weather station network and the appropriateness of their locations. In addition to ET_o, other variables included in weather forecast datasets (such as temperature or rainfall) could be evaluated using the same innovative methodology proposed in this study.     

上海城市热岛的精细结构气候特征分析

对上海地区59个自动站2006—2013年逐时气温资料进行了本地化的质量控制,得到一套高分辨率气温数据集。将其与常规观测资料进行对比,发现两者反映的上海年平均及季节平均气温基本一致,说明经质量控制的加密资料是可信的。但其空间差异更为明显,表明高分辨气温数据在城市热环境精细空间分布研究中更具代表性和有效性。基于该数据集研究了上海的城市热岛空间分布。结果表明,加密观测数据可反映出城市热岛的精细结构气候特征:热岛分布由中心城区向四周及西南部扩展,尤其是出现了"多中心"结构特征,即除中心城区的热岛主中心外,在闵行北部和松江南部均出现了与快速城市化进程相联系的区域性副热岛中心;受大气环流季节转换和局地海陆风的影响,热岛位置在秋冬季偏东南方向,春夏季偏西北方向。上述精细化特征在常规资料中并不明显或无法体现。由此可见,经质量控制的加密气温数据在城市热岛的精细结构研究中更具优势。     

SWAN2.0系统的设计与实现

强对流天气短时临近预报系统（Severe Weather Automatic Nowcasting,SWAN）是面向短时临近监测、分析、预报、预警制作等功能为一体的业务平台。SWAN2.0基于MICAPS4（Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Processing System Version 4.0,人机交互气象信息处理和天气预报制作系统）二次开发框架,采用C/S架构,服务器部署在省级,负责收集数据,运算SWAN产品;客户端部署在气象台站,实现具体的预报业务,并形成算法二次开发接口。SWAN2.0新增了三维变分风场反演、基于分雨团技术的雷达降水估测、冰雹识别等方法,实现了算法管理、产品生成、分析处理、资料检索显示、实时监控报警、预警产品制作等功能。SWAN2.0业务系统已在全国试用,在强对流天气监测、分析和短时临近预报预警中发挥了重要作用。     

黄、渤海沿海大风变化特征及影响系统

利用1981—2010年黄、渤海沿海44个气象站大风资料,根据中央气象台对近海海区的划分,分析了近30 a黄、渤海近海5海区大风的气候特征,以及通过天气分型对2008—2012年黄、渤海沿海大风的影响系统进行了统计,结果表明:近30 a黄、渤海沿海5海区日最大风速≥6级和≥8级日数呈递减趋势,1980s大风日数较多,各海区≥6级大风在1981年和1987年前后均有两个峰值。≥6级大风日数随季节变化的峰值,渤海海区出现在春季,黄海南部海区是春季、夏季8月和秋季11月,渤海海峡、黄海北部和中部海区则主要是春季和冬季。渤海海区以偏北风和南南西风为主导风向,与其他海区以北或西北风为主的特征明显不同。冷锋是黄、渤海沿海大风最主要的影响系统,其次是气旋型和高低压型大风。另外以850 h Pa温度平流的强度、冷/暖中心的强度、等温线密集带梯度、地面高/低压强度、地面大风前3 h/24 h最强变压中心强度和地面气压梯度等要素为着眼点,对不同类型的大风指标进行了分析。