Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

Integrating diverse methods to understand climate-land interactions in East Africa

The questions of how land use change affects climate, and how climate change affects land use, require examination of societal and environmental systems across space at multiple scales, from the global climate to regional vegetative dynamics to local decision making by farmers and herders. It also requires an analysis of causal linkages and feedback loops between systems. These questions and the conceptual approach of the research design of the Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP) are rooted in the classical human-environment research tradition in Geography.This paper discusses a methodological framework to quantify the two-way interactions between land use and regional climate systems, using ongoing work by a team of multi-disciplinary scientists examining climate-land dynamics at multiple scales in East Africa. East Africa is a region that is undergoing rapid land use change, where changes in climate would have serious consequences for people’s livelihoods, and requiring new coping and land use strategies. The research involves exploration of linkages between two important foci of global change research, namely, land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change. These linkages are examined through modeling agricultural systems, land use driving forces and patterns, the physical properties of land cover, and the regional climate. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are being used to illustrate a diverse pluralism in scientific discovery.     

Pervasive wetland flooding in the glacial drift prairie of North Dakota (USA)

This article describes a unique flood hazard, produced by the dramatic expansion of wetlands in Nelson County, located within the North American Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. There has been an unprecedented increase in the number, average size, and permanence of prairie wetlands, and a significant increase in the size of a closed lake (Stump Lake) due to a decade-long wet spell that began in 1993 following a prolonged drying trend. Base-line land cover information from the 1992 USGS National Land Cover Characterization dataset, and a Landsat TM scene acquired 9 July 2001 are used to assess the growth of the closed lake and wetland pond surface areas, and to analyze the type and area of various land cover classes inundated between 1992 and 2001. The open water profile in Nelson County changed from one marked by relatively comparable coverage of closed lake and wetland pond areas in 1992, to one in which wetland open water accounted for the vast majority of total open water in 2001. The bulk of the wetland pond area expansion occurred by displacing existing wetland vegetation and agricultural cropland. Producers responded to the flood hazard by filing Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) claims and enrolling cropland in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), a federal land retirement program. Land taken out of agricultural production has had an enormous impact upon the agricultural sector that forms the economic base of the rural economy. In 2001 the land taken out of production due to CRP enrollment and preventive planting claims represented nearly 42% of Nelson County’s 205.2 K ha base agricultural land. The patterns obtained from this detailed study of Nelson County are likely to be the representative of the more publicized flood disaster occurring within the Devils Lake Basin of North Dakota.     

Soil erosion susceptibility assessment and validation using a geostatistical multivariate approach: a test in Southern Sicily

A certain number of studies have been carried out in recent years that aim at developing and applying a model capable of assessing water erosion of soil. Some of these have tried to quantitatively evaluate the volumes of soil loss, while others have focused their efforts on the recognition of the areas most prone to water erosion processes. This article presents the results of a research whose objective was that of evaluating water erosion susceptibility in a Sicilian watershed: the Naro river basin. A geomorphological study was carried out to recognize the water erosion landforms and define a set of parameters expressing both the intensity of hydraulic forces and the resistance of rocks/soils. The landforms were mapped and classified according to the dominant process in landsurfaces affected by diffuse or linear water erosion. A GIS layer was obtained by combining six determining factors (bedrock lithology, land use, soil texture, plan curvature, stream power index and slope-length factor) in unique conditions units. A geostatistical multivariate approach was applied by analysing the relationships between the spatial distributions of the erosion landforms and the unique condition units. Particularly, the density of eroded area for each combination of determining factors has been calculated: such function corresponds, in fact, to the conditional probability of erosion landforms to develop, under the same geoenvironmental conditions. In light of the obtained results, a general geomorphologic model for water erosion in the Naro river basin can be depicted: cultivated areas in clayey slopes, having fine-medium soil texture, are the most prone to be eroded; linear or diffuse water erosion processes dominate where the topography is favourable to a convergent or divergent runoff, respectively. For each of the two erosion process types, a susceptibility map was produced and submitted to a validation procedure based on a spatial random partition strategy. Both the success of the validation procedure of the susceptibility models and the geomorphological coherence of the relationships between factors and process that such models suggest, confirm the reliability of the method and the goodness of the predictions.     

气候变化对塔里木河来自天山的地表径流影响

塔里木河水资源主要来自天山南坡两条源流,选择西段阿克苏河和中段开都河-孔雀河作为研究区.1956-2003年研究河源山区气温呈持续升温且降水波动增加的趋势,其中1995-2003年升温强劲,升温速率高出48 a期间平均的3倍以上;降水自1986年后持续增加,20世纪90年代较80年代增幅达18%,并显示出河源山区湿岛向塔里木盆地扩展.因高山缺少气象观测,出山径流过程变化可以综合反映中高山带的气候变化.塔里木河来自天山的地表径流在1986-2003年间持续增长,以冰川融水补给为主的库玛拉克河,1994年以来年径流量增加已在前期平均值基础上提升了一个台阶;开都河以降水径流补给为主,1986-2002年出现了观测记录以来的丰水期,并使1986年后博斯腾湖水位快速上升,恢复到1958年记录的最高水位以上.两河年径流变化趋势基本相似,但也显示有西、中段的气候变化局部差异,出现丰枯水期的不一致;然而,在近16 a升温过程中,年径流增长幅度和快慢相近.     

Field Measurement of Suction, Water Content, and Water Permeability

This paper presents a review of techniques for field measurement of suction, water content, and water hydraulic conductivity (permeability). Main problems in the use of field tensiometers are addressed and hints on how to improve tensiometer performance are given. Advantages and limitations of instruments for indirect measurement of suction including electrical conductivity sensors, thermal conductivity sensors, dielectric permittivity sensors, filter paper, and psychrometer are discussed. Techniques for water content measurement based on dielectric methods are then presented. These include time and amplitude domain reflectometry and capacitance. Finally, a brief overview of methods for measurement of water permeability in the field is presented.     

青藏高原西部赛利普中新世火山岩源区:地球化学及Sr-Nd同位素制约

青藏高原拉萨地块西部赛利普地区新生代火山岩依据主量元素可划分为超钾质、钾质和钙碱性系列,主要的岩石类型为粗面安山岩、粗面岩,一个超钾质岩石的40Ar-39Ar年龄为17.58Ma,指示出火山活动为中新世.超钾质、钾质和钙碱性火山岩都显示出富集LREE及LILE(Th、U)、亏损HFSE(Nb、Ta、Ti)的特征.超钾质火山岩具有较高的K2O(6.31%～8.55%)、MgO(6.75%～8.96%)、Cr(270.7×10-6～460.4×10-6)、Ni(142.3×10-6～233.9×10-6)含量,较高的(87Sr/86Sr)i(0.71883～0.72732)和较低的εNd(-14.78～-15.37),指示可能起源于一个前期亏损并经后期俯冲作用改造的富钾的方辉橄榄岩富集地幔源区.钾质火山岩具有比超钾质火山岩低的K2O、MgO、Cr、Ni含量以及高的Ba、Sr含量,初始87Sr/86Sr为0.71553～0.71628,初始143Nd/144Nd为0.51197～0.51198,在空间上与超钾质火山岩共生,可能是前者母岩浆的演化产物.钙碱性火山岩具有较高的Sr(881.7×10-6～1309.2×10-6)、Sr/Y比值(50～108)和较低的Y(12.05×10-6～18.02×10-6),明显亏损重稀土Yb(0.93×10-6～1.30×10-6),类似于典型的埃达克质岩成分特征但相对高钾,并具有相对低的(87Sr/86Sr);(0.70928～0.71374)以及高的εNd(-7.90～-10.91),指示起源于富钾增厚下地壳物质的部分熔融.区域上拉萨地块超钾质岩、钾质岩与N-S向地堑系在空间上共存、时间上相吻合,由此本文认为拉萨地块中新世钾质.超钾质岩和南北向地堑系的形成可能与中新世早期北向俯冲的印度大陆岩石圈断离有关.     

青藏高原东南木里地区二叠纪苦橄岩的Os-Sr-Nd同位素地球化学研究

本文报道了在青藏高原东南木里地区发现的二叠纪苦橄岩和与其共生玄武岩的主微量元素地球化学特征以及Os-Sr-Nd同位素组成。苦橄岩和与其共生玄武岩受地壳混染作用影响较小。根据苦橄岩的Ti/Y比值和初始的Os同位素组成,将木里苦橄岩分为两类:高Ti/Y型苦橄岩和低Ti/Y型苦橄岩,其中高Ti/Y型苦橄岩具有高的γ_(Os)= 5.3～ 10.7和ε_(Nd)= 5.9～ 6.4,与全球典型洋岛玄武岩的Os和Nd同位素组成接近,代表了地幔柱源区的同位素特征;而低Ti/Y型苦橄岩具有低的γ_(Os)=-4.1～ 1.2和ε_(Nd)= 3.2～ 5.0,可能表明受到了SCLM(大陆岩石圈地幔)源区物质的混染。与其共生的玄武岩具有低的γ_(Os)=-3.5～-1.6和ε_(Nd)=-0.6～ 0.7,表明其来自于不同于低Ti/Y型苦橄岩也有异于高Ti/Y型苦橄岩的地幔源区,但是也可能受到了SCLM物质的混染。基于Nd-Os同位素的地幔柱与SCLM的二端元混合模型显示:低Ti/Y型苦橄岩可能是SCLM物质组分与地幔柱起源的苦橄质原始岩浆混合形成的;与苦橄岩共生的玄武岩可能是由地幔柱来源的玄武质岩浆与SCLM小比例熔融的熔体混合形成的。     

西藏冈底斯带措勤地区则弄群火山岩锆石U-Pb年代学格架及构造意义

大规模的则弄群火山岩呈带状近东西向展布于西藏冈底斯带中北部地区.对出露状况较好的措勤地区则弄群火山岩进行了锆石U-Pb定年,以建立其年代学格架便于区域对比.措勤地区则弄群火山岩多数锆石具有生长振荡环带,部分锆石显示核边结构.在措勤达雄北西部上覆于中二叠统下拉组灰岩的1件则弄群英安岩样品的LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Ph年龄为130±1Ma,1件则弄群流纹岩样品的SHRIMP锆石U-Pb年龄为129±3Ma;在措勤达雄北东部与下白垩统多尼组碎屑岩呈断层接触的1件则弄群英安岩样品中的锆石具有两组LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄,最年轻的一组(包括增生边)为121±1Ma,较老的一组(包括核部)为131±1Ma;在措勤南西部1件则异群流纹岩样品的LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄为111±1Ma,与措勤地区花岗岩类的侵位时代相当.这些高质量的锆石U-Pb年代学数据表明,措勤地区的则弄群火山作用很可能开始于约130Ma,停息于约110Ma,持续时间约20Ma.区域对比表明,东西延伸约1000km的则弄群火山作用同时发生在约130Ma.区域上目前的年代学数据结合同时代岩浆作用的分布特征表明,冈底斯带中北部地区早白垩世岩浆作用不太可能由新特提斯洋壳向北的低角度或平板俯冲产生.