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John B. Rundle Paul B. Rundle Andrea Donnellan P. Li W. Klein Gleb Morein D.L. Turcotte Lisa Grant 《Tectonophysics》2006,413(1-2):109
Observations indicate that earthquake faults occur in topologically complex, multi-scale networks driven by plate tectonic forces. We present realistic numerical simulations, involving data-mining, pattern recognition, theoretical analyses and ensemble forecasting techniques, to understand how the observable space–time earthquake patterns are related to the fundamentally inaccessible and unobservable dynamics. Numerical simulations can also help us to understand how the different scales involved in earthquake physics interact and influence the resulting dynamics. Our simulations indicate that elastic interactions (stress transfer) combined with the nonlinearity in the frictional failure threshold law lead to the self-organization of the statistical dynamics, producing 1) statistical distributions for magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes that have characteristics similar to those possessed by the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distributions observed in nature; and 2) clear examples of stress transfer among fault activity described by stress shadows, in which an earthquake on one group of faults reduces the Coulomb failure stress on other faults, thereby delaying activity on those faults. In this paper, we describe the current state of modeling and simulation efforts for Virtual California, a model for all the major active strike slip faults in California. Noting that the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) uses statistical distributions to produce earthquake forecast probabilities, we demonstrate that Virtual California provides a powerful tool for testing the applicability and reliability of the WGCEP statistical methods. Furthermore, we show how the simulations can be used to develop statistical earthquake forecasting techniques that are complementary to the methods used by the WGCEP, but improve upon those methods in a number of important ways. In doing so, we distinguish between the “official” forecasts of the WGCEP, and the “research-quality” forecasts that we discuss here. Finally, we provide a brief discussion of future problems and issues related to the development of ensemble earthquake hazard estimation and forecasting techniques. 相似文献
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Altimetry missions are usually presented to the user communities with rather short lifetime durations of the order of five years. However in practice, most altimeters can remain in operations for twice as long, although often in a degraded state (coverage and/or accuracy) and with a higher risk of mission loss. Early in the design of the SARAL/AltiKa mission, this Ka-band technology demonstrator has been envisioned as a contributing mission to the so-called Ocean Surface Topography Virtual Constellation (OST-VC) of the Committee of Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). This article uses the experience feedback from SARAL and its launch delay on the OST-VC. Using a simple yet quantified probability model, we illustrate the value of anticipating the periods where the constellation is fragile, and we identify the next periods where actions can be undertaken by CEOS Agencies to strengthen the OST-VC. 相似文献
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地质特征三维分析及三维地质模拟现状研究 总被引:40,自引:1,他引:40
自然地质现象极其复杂,三维实体普遍存在,随着地学研究不断深入,三维地质模拟已引起了地球科学界的高度重视,目前已经研制出了多种三维地质模拟软件,并被广泛应用到地质、矿产、水文、物探、地震、环境等各个领域。从地质体结构、构造、类型、分布等方面,系统地分析了地质体三维特征,总结了国内外三维地质模拟软件在地质构造、地质工程、矿山测量、地球物理等方面的开发现状,指出三维地质模拟在软件开发方面存在的问题及在地质数据采集、处理、解释、利用方面所面临的困难,并从三维空间数据结构、技术方法、应用研究等方面阐述了三维地质模拟新进展,最后论述了开展三维地质模拟的意义。 相似文献
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设计了一套基于PC机的数字天气雷达虚拟终端系统,用普通的PC机代替传统数字天气雷达信号处理分机[1,2]直接完成雷达信号处理和实时显示。该系统在硬件方面,设计了基于PCI总线的三通道高速数据接收卡,以满足大容量数据高速传输要求;在软件方面则利用高级语言(C )和虚拟设备驱动程序(WDM)技术开发了一套基于WINDOWS2000/9X操作系统的实时处理软件,以此控制数据接收卡和雷达工作,并完成信号处理和实时显示。实际应用表明,该系统结构简单、界面友好、操作方便、便于升级,完全能够实时、高效地处理常规天气雷达信号,而且处理后的雷达回波层次清楚,具有较高精度。本研究也为虚拟终端应用到多普勒天气雷达打下了一个良好的基础。 相似文献
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2008年汶川MS8.0地震前,距震中450km范围内有7个视电阻率台站运行,震前记录到了不同形态和幅值的变化。本文采用断层虚位错模式,在模型中将汶川地震同震滑动位移按大小相等但方向相反的方式进行加载,计算震前产生这些同震位错所需积累的应力应变分布。计算结果表明:在100m深度,震前正应力和剪切应力主要积累区域位于龙门山断裂带两侧约100km范围内,最大应力变化量为0.5MPa;体应变积累区域与应力积累区域基本一致,最大应变值为10-5,显示这些区域在震前存在较高的挤压应力应变积累,而在这些区域外,应力应变积累程度较低。成都台和江油台位于震前主要的应力应变挤压积累集中区域,视电阻率观测数据均为震前下降-准同震阶跃-震后回升,与震前应力应变积累-震后释放的变化形式一致,这2个台站震前的异常变化与汶川地震关系密切;而甘孜台、武都台、冕宁台、小庙台和天水台位于应力应变积累较弱的区域,其视电阻率变化与汶川地震的关联性较弱。 相似文献
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