On ensemble representation of the observation-error covariance in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

Evensen (2003) presents a modification of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), in which the observation-error and background-error covariance matrices are both represented by ensembles, in contrast to the usual practice, where only the background error is so represented. It is shown that this modification can cause the ensemble to collapse to a single member, in the common situation where the number of observations is more than twice the number of ensemble members, and to be rank-deficient when the number of observations is greater than or equal to the ensemble size. It is also shown that some further modifications to the scheme, presented by Evensen as offering numerical efficiencies, can prevent this collapse. However, these latter modifications are shown in some simple numerical examples to require tuning to produce acceptable results, which are nevertheless inferior to those of the standard EnKF.Acknowledgements The author acknowledges useful discussions with Peter Steinle, and other participants at the EnKF workshop held in BMRC in November, 2003.     

Helmert方差分量估计严密公式与简化公式等价性的证明

在分析了Helmert方差分量估计严密公式与简化公式迭代收敛结果一些统计性质的基础上,导出了关于收敛结果共同的求解方程,从理论上证明了两种结果的等价性,为使用简化公式提供了依据。     

近4万年渤海西岸海侵时古海面的现代标高对比研究*

近4万年以来,相应于两次高太阳辐射暖湿期渤海西岸曾经两次海水泛陆事件,即40~28kaB.P.与10~4kaB.P.海侵事件。文章基于众多钻孔海相层中有孔虫、介形类等海相微体生物化石的组合特征恢复海水深度,重建了海侵最大时的古海面的现代标高。结果显示: 40~28kaB.P.海侵,海面的现代标高最高可达-11~-5m;10~4kaB.P.海侵则为2~3m。后者同众多研究所认为的中全新世存在高海面,海面高度为2~3m的结论大致吻合,前者则与全球气候尚处在间冰阶,冰川部分消融,世界洋面处在-50m的大背景不协调。而辽东与山东半岛沿海众多钻孔揭示,40~28kaB.P.渤海地区并没有高于-50~-20m海面存在的证据。通过区域环境的综合分析,认为40~28kaB.P.渤海西岸的海侵,是早玉木冰期持续4~5万年之久的冰期低海面环境,这种特殊的环境使现代渤海西岸的大部分区域远离沉积环境,成为冲刷侵蚀区,这种效应叠加在冰期边缘海式构造下沉与弧后盆地性质的构造下沉背景之上造成区域性异常地面低洼;渤海西岸异常地面低洼在间冰阶全球趋暖,冰川型海侵的过程中形成的区域性强烈"视"海侵(指示当时海侵时海水深度很大,而不是海水的陆泛范围大)。     

航空重力测量数据向下延拓中空间协方差函数特性研究

本文通过对航空重力测量数据的分析,建立起具有空间相关特性的空间协方差函数模型。利用所建立的模型,将航空重力测量试验数据采用最小二乘配置的方法向下延拓到地面,与地面已知重力数据进行比较。由比较结果,分析了空间协方差函数模型对航空重力测量数据向下延拓结果的影响,并表明所建立的空间协方差函数模型,满足协方差函数特性,且在局部区域使用能够达到满意的精度要求。     

一种确定联合反演中相对权比的两步法

提出确定联合反演中相对权比的两步法。第1步是不考虑相对权比,建立两类或多类数据的联合反演模型,通过赫尔墨特方差分量估计使得两类或多类观测数据的单位权方差相等（或单位权方差的比值接近1）,从而理论上确定观测数据合理的权阵,同时对不同种类数据进行归一化;第2步是在获得合理的观测数据权阵之后,建立顾及相对权比的联合反演模型,...     

Gap Filling and Quality Assessment of CO2 and Water Vapour Fluxes above an Urban Area with Radial Basis Function Neural Networks

Vertical turbulent fluxes of water vapour, carbon dioxide, and sensible heat were measured from 16 August to the 28 September 2006 near the city centre of Münster in north-west Germany. In comparison to results of measurements above homogeneous ecosystem sites, the CO₂ fluxes above the urban investigation area showed more peaks and higher variances during the course of a day, probably caused by traffic and other varying, anthropogenic sources. The main goal of this study is the introduction and establishment of a new gap filling procedure using radial basis function (RBF) neural networks, which is also applicable under complex environmental conditions. We applied adapted RBF neural networks within a combined modular expert system of neural networks as an innovative approach to fill data gaps in micrometeorological flux time series. We found that RBF networks are superior to multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks in the reproduction of the highly variable turbulent fluxes. In addition, we enhanced the methodology in the field of quality assessment for eddy covariance data. An RBF neural network mapping system was used to identify conditions of a turbulence regime that allows reliable quantification of turbulent fluxes through finding an acceptable minimum of the friction velocity. For the data analysed in this study, the minimum acceptable friction velocity was found to be 0.15 m s⁻¹. The obtained CO₂ fluxes, measured on a tower at 65 m a.g.l., reached average values of 12 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ and fell to nighttime minimum values of 3 μmol m ⁻² s⁻¹. Mean daily CO₂ emissions of 21 g CO₂ m⁻²d ⁻¹ were obtained during our 6-week experiment. Hence, the city centre of Münster appeared to be a significant source of CO₂. The half-hourly average values of water vapour fluxes ranged between 0.062 and 0.989 mmol m⁻² s⁻¹and showed lower variances than the simultaneously measured fluxes of CO₂.     

The Effect of Surface Heterogeneity on the Temperature–Humidity Correlation and the Relative Transport Efficiency

We derive a conceptual model of the flow over heterogeneous terrain consisting of patches with contrasting Bowen ratios. Upward moving eddies are assumed to carry heterogeneous properties, whereas downward moving eddies carry homogeneous properties. This results in a decorrelation of temperature and humidity as the contrast between the patches increases. We show that this model is able to reproduce the relationship developed by Lamaud and Irvine (Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 120:87–109, 2006). Some details differ from their expression but are in accordance with data obtained over African savannah. We extend the conceptual model to a combination of any scalars, not necessarily linked through the surface energy balance (as is the case for temperature and humidity). To this end we introduce a new parameter that describes the surface heterogeneity in surface fluxes. The results of the current model can be used to predict the discrepancy between similarity relationships for different scalars over heterogeneous terrain.     

A Re-examination of Density Effects in Eddy Covariance Measurements of CO2 Fluxes

Corrections of density effects resulting from air-parcel expansion/compression are important in interpreting eddy covariance fluxes of water vapor and CO2 when open-path systems are used. To account for these effects, mean vertical velocity and perturbation of the density of dry air are two critical parameters in treating those physical processes responsible for density variations. Based on various underlying assumptions, different studies have obtained different formulas for the mean vertical velocity and perturbation of the density of dry air, leading to a number of approaches to correct density effects. In this study, we re-examine physical processes related to different assumptions that are made to formulate the density effects. Specifically, we re-examine the assumptions of a zero dry air flux and a zero moist air flux in the surface layer, used for treating density variations, and their implications for correcting density effects. It is found that physical processes in relation to the assumption of a zero dry air flux account for the influence of dry air expansion/compression on density variations. Meanwhile, physical processes in relation to the assumption of a zero moist air flux account for the influence of moist air expansion/compression on density variations. In this study, we also re-examine mixing ratio issues. Our results indicate that the assumption of a zero dry air flux favors the use of the mixing ratio relative to dry air, while the assumption of a zero moist air flux favors the use of the mixing ratio relative to the total moist air. Additionally, we compare different formula for the mean vertical velocity, generated by air-parcel expansion/compression, and for density effect corrections using eddy covariance data measured over three boreal ecosystems.     

基于MODIS数据的决策树分类方法研究与应用

介绍了目前国际上流行的两种决策树算法———CART算法与C4·5算法,并引入了两种机器学习领域里的分类新技术———boosting和bagging技术,为探究这些决策树分类算法与新技术在遥感影像分类方面的潜力,以中国华北地区MODIS250m分辨率影像进行了土地覆盖决策树分类试验与分析。研究结果表明决策树在满足充分训练样本的条件下,相对于传统方法如最大似然法(MLC)能明显提高分类精度,而在样本量不足下决策树分类表现差于MLC;并发现在单一决策树生成中,分类回归树CART算法表现较C4·5算法具有分类精度和树结构优势,分类精度的提高取决于树结构的合理构建与剪枝处理;另外在决策树CART中引入boosting技术,能明显提高那些较难识别类别的分类准确率18·5%到25·6%。     

40m口径射电望远镜

介绍了40m望远镜的结构和性能,以及在中国VLBI网中的试观测情况和其他应用情况。