Short and long memory unobserved components in hydrological time series

In this paper a semiparametric approach is introduced to decompose an ARFIMA model in the long memory and short memory unobserved components. The procedure is based on the DECOMEL method which produces a statistical decomposition by minimizing the Euclidean distance between the spectrum of the aggregated series and the sum of the parametric spectra of the components. The extension to long memory stationary models is achieved defining an approximate model where the fractional operator is replaced by the ratio of two polynomials of order one. The feasibility and performance of the proposed procedure are discussed through a case study.     

Study on the processing method of nighttime CO_2 eddy covariance flux data in ChinaFLUX

At present, using Eddy Covariance (EC) method to estimate the "true value" of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystem arrests more attention. However, one issue is how to solve the uncertainty of observations (especially the nighttime CO2 flux data) appearing in post-processing CO2 flux data. The ratio of effective and reliable nighttime EC CO2 flux data to all nighttime data is relatively low (commonly, less than 50%) for all the long-term and continuous observation stations in the world. Thus, the processing method of nighttime CO2 flux data and its effect analysis on estimating CO2 flux annual sums are very important. In this paper, the authors analyze and discuss the reasons for underestimating nighttime CO2 flux using EC method, and introduce the general theory and method for processing nighttime CO2 flux data. By analyzing the relationship between nighttime CO2 flux and air fraction velocity u., we present an alternate method, Average Values Test (AVT), to determine the thresholds of fraction velocity (u.c) for screening the effective nighttime CO2 flux data. Meanwhile, taking the data observed in Yucheng and Changbai Mountains stations for an example, we analyze and discuss the effects of different methods or parameters on nighttime CO2 flux estimations. Finally, based on the data of part ChinaFLUX stations and related literatures, empirical models of nighttime respiration at different sites in ChinaFLUX are summarized.     

Net ecosystem CO_2 exchange and controlling factors in a steppe——Kobresia meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

Knowledge of seasonal variation of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and its biotic and abiotic controllers will further our understanding of carbon cycling process, mechanism and large-scale modelling. Eddy covariance technique was used to measure NEE, biotic and abiotic factors for nearly 3 years in the hinterland alpine steppe--Korbresia meadow grassland on the Tibetan Plateau, the present highest fluxnet station in the world. The main objectives are to investigate dynamics of NEE and its components and to determine the major controlling factors. Maximum carbon assimilation took place in August and maximum carbon loss occurred in November. In June, rainfall amount due to monsoon climate played a great role in grass greening and consequently influenced interannual variation of ecosystem carbon gain. From July through September, monthly NEE presented net carbon assimilation. In other months, ecosystem exhibited carbon loss. In growing season, daytime NEE was mainly controlled by photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). In addition, leaf area index (LAI) interacted with PAR and together modulated NEE rates. Ecosystem respiration was controlled mainly by soil temperature and simultaneously by soil moisture. Q10 was negatively correlated with soil temperature but positively correlated with soil moisture. Large daily range of air temperature is not necessary to enhance carbon gain. Standard respiration rate at referenced 10℃(R10) was positively correlated with soil moisture, soil temperature, LAI and aboveground biomass. Rainfall patterns in growing season markedly influenced soil moisture and therefore soil moisture controlled seasonal change of ecosystem respiration. Pulse rainfall in the beginning and at the end of growing season induced great ecosystem respiration and consequently a great amount of carbon was lost. Short growing season and relative low temperature restrained alpine grass vegetation development. The results suggested that LAI be usually in a low level and carbon uptake be relatively low. Rainfall patterns in the growing season and pulse rainfall in the beginning and at end of growing season control ecosystem respiration and consequently influence carbon balance of ecosystem.     

全球资料同化中误差协方差三维结构的准确估计与应用Ⅱ:背景误差协方差调整与数值试验分析

利用NMC方法针对背景误差协方差的方差、三维相关与特征长度来揭示T213L31模式的误差主要特点,并与传统更新矢量方法的计算结果进行了对比与调整。结果表明NMC方法结果与更新矢量方法结果在大体特征上基本吻合,但细节上的差异不可忽视,特别是对背景误差方差与特征长度的估计存在显著的差异,其主要原因是NMC方法倾向于高估天气尺度波的背景误差,而低估次天气尺度到中尺度波的背景误差。通过对背景误差方差、特征长度的调整,显著改善了背景误差功率谱的分布特点,使得NMC方法结果与更新矢量方法结果更为吻合。通过三维变分同化与最优插值中观测与背景误差相对重要性的比较,发现两者结果基本一致,但三维变分同化在850 hPa以下的温度场和300 hPa以上的风场统计结果都表现出背景误差相对于观测误差偏小的特点。背景误差相对于观测误差偏小有助于保证分析场中质量场与风场平衡,消除了大气底层和高层质量场与风场不匹配现象。在数值试验中,针对不同的背景误差均方差与特征长度的特点,分析了分析增量和预报效果的差异,结果表明,准确的背景误差估计与优化工作改善了预报效果,使得北半球三维变分同化的120 h预报效果整体好于现有最优插值。     

Seismic Moment Tensor Resolution on a Local Scale: Simulated Rockburst and Mine-induced Seismic Events in the Kopanang Gold Mine, South Africa

Seismic records contain information about the effect of the source as well as the effect of wave propagation through the rock mass. The effect of wave propagation is usually not well known as only simplified models of geological structures are available. Therefore, the information about the source retrieved by inverting seismograms may include errors due to incomplete knowledge of the rock mass along the propagation path, which in turn cause a distortion in the calculated moment tensor (MT). The distortion of the MT on a local scale was observed by inverting records of a simulated rockburst conducted at the Kopanang gold mine in South Africa. A dominant isotropic component of the explosive characteristics was found from the inversion. The deviatoric components retrieved from the blast are spurious. A test of their stability indicated that they are not significant, assuming an uncertainty above 5% for velocities and 10% for attenuation within the homogeneous model available for the mine. Thus, the retrieval of the MT from records of local networks in mines using a homogeneous model of the rock mass seems to be feasible. However, the homogeneous model of the rock mass can only be applied to close stations, within a few kilometers of the source. The seismic records from distant stations were too complex to be modelled by a homogeneous rock mass. Records of six mine-induced seismic events recorded at the Kopanang gold mine were also inverted. A vertical linear dipole along the pressure (P) axis was found for three of the events, suggesting a pillar burst. The mechanism of two events contains an isotropic implosion together with a nearly vertical dip-slip, and seems to indicate a combination of a cavity collapse with a down dip-slip along a nearly vertical fault. One event corresponds to a dipole along the tensional (T) axis. However, it is vertical, thus its association with tensile faulting of the hangingwall is uncertain.     

Processing and quality control of flux data during LITFASS-2003

Different aspects of the quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) of micrometeorological measurements were combined to create a comprehensive algorithm which was then applied to experimental data from LITFASS-2003 (Lindenberg Inhomogeneous Terrain—Fluxes between Atmosphere and Surface: a long term Study). Eddy-covariance measurements of the latent heat flux were the main focus of the QA/QC efforts. The results of a turbulence sensor intercomparison experiment showed deviations between the different eddy-covariance systems on the order of 15%, or less than 30 W m⁻², for the latent heat flux and 5%, or less than 10 W m⁻², for the sensible heat flux. In order to avoid uncertainties due to the post-processing of turbulence data, a comprehensive software package was used for the analysis of experimental data from LITFASS-2003, including all necessary procedures for corrections and quality control. An overview of the quality test results shows that for most of the days more than 80% of the available latent heat flux data are of high quality so long as there are no instrumental problems. The representativeness of a flux value for the target land-use type was analysed using a stochastic footprint model. Different methods to calculate soil heat fluxes at the surface are discussed and a sensitivity analysis is conducted to select the most robust method for LITFASS-2003. The lack of energy balance closure, which was found for LITFASS-2003, can probably be attributed to the presence of low-frequency flux contributions that cannot be resolved with an averaging time of 30 min. Though the QA/QC system has been developed for the requirements of LITFASS-2003, it can also be applied to other experiments dealing with similar objectives.     

Characteristics of secondary circulations over an inhomogeneous surface simulated with large-eddy simulation

Large-eddy simulation is used to study secondary circulations in the convective boundary layer modulated as a result of horizontally varying surface properties and surface heat fluxes over flat terrain. The presence of heat flux heterogeneity and its alignment with respect to geostrophic wind influences the formation, strength and orientation of organized thermals. Results show boundary-attached roll formation along heat flux maxima in the streamwise direction. The streamwise organization of the updrafts and downdrafts formed downwind of heterogeneities leads to counter-rotating secondary circulations in the crosswind plane. The distribution of resolved-scale pressure deviations shows large pressure gradients in the crosswind plane. Spanwise and vertical velocity variances and heat flux profiles depict considerable spatial variability compared to a homogeneous forest simulation. Secondary circulations are observed for various ambient wind scenarios parallel and perpendicular to heterogeneities. In the presence of increased wind speed, thermals emerging from the heat flux heterogeneity are elongated, and organize along and downwind of large-scale heterogeneity in the streamwise direction. Simulation with a reduced heat flux shows a shallower circulation with a lower aspect ratio. Point measurements of heat flux inside the roll circulation could be overestimated by up to 15–25% compared to a homogeneous case.     

基于虚拟观测的病态问题解法

在大地测量数据处理领域中,处理病态问题的主要方法有:岭估计方法、奇异值分解法(SVD)、Tik-honov正则化方法等,但是这些方法大多数是强调数学上的意义,没有充分联系大地测量的实际情况,因此不利于在测绘领域病态问题本质的理解和研究。为使病态问题的求解具有实际的物理意义,提出了基于虚拟观测的岭估计方法。该方法将先验约束条件作为一类互相独立的虚拟观测值,从而把病态问题转化为测量平差问题,然后运用Helmert方差估计法来确定岭参数。该方法还可以得到的参数之间的权矩阵,用它来代替虚拟观测值的权矩阵,重新对参数进行计算,则实现了该方法向广义岭估计的推广。实际算例分析的结果表明该方法不仅计算简单而且能保证结果精确。     

基于MATLAB COM组件的变形监测与分析软件开发

论述了桥梁变形自动监测系统数据的频谱分析以及小波分析方法,并利用MATLAB编译的COM组件,实现了在VC中调用该COM组件以实现脱离MATLAB环境的变形分析软件开发。     

The energy balance experiment EBEX-2000. Part II: Intercomparison of eddy-covariance sensors and post-field data processing methods

The eddy-covariance method is the primary way of measuring turbulent fluxes directly. Many investigators have found that these flux measurements often do not satisfy a fundamental criterion—closure of the surface energy balance. This study investigates to what extent the eddy-covariance measurement technology can be made responsible for this deficiency, in particular the effects of instrumentation or of the post-field data processing. Therefore, current eddy-covariance sensors and several post-field data processing methods were compared. The differences in methodology resulted in deviations of 10% for the sensible heat flux and of 15% for the latent heat flux for an averaging time of 30 min. These disparities were mostly due to different sensor separation corrections and a linear detrending of the data. The impact of different instrumentation on the resulting heat flux estimates was significantly higher. Large deviations from the reference system of up to 50% were found for some sensor combinations. However, very good measurement quality was found for a CSAT3 sonic together with a KH20 krypton hygrometer and also for a UW sonic together with a KH20. If these systems are well calibrated and maintained, an accuracy of better than 5% can be achieved for 30-min values of sensible and latent heat flux measurements. The results from the sonic anemometers Gill Solent-HS, ATI-K, Metek USA-1, and R.M. Young 81000 showed more or less larger deviations from the reference system. The LI-COR LI-7500 open-path H₂O/CO₂ gas analyser in the test was one of the first serial numbers of this sensor type and had technical problems regarding direct solar radiation sensitivity and signal delay. These problems are known by the manufacturer and improvements of the sensor have since been made. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is supported by the National Science Foundation.