Precipitation changes in wet and dry seasons over the 20th century simulated by two versions of the FGOALS model

Seasonal precipitation changes over the globe during the 20 th century simulated by two versions of the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System(FGOALS) model are assessed. The two model versions differ in terms of their AGCM component, but the remaining parts of the system are almost identical. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean-state features of the timings of the wet and dry seasons and related precipitation amounts, with pattern correlation coefficients of 0.65–0.84 with observations. Globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are analyzed. The results show that wet seasons get wetter and the annual range(precipitation difference between wet and dry seasons) increases during the 20 th century in the two models, with positive trends covering most parts of the globe, which is consistent with observations. However,both models show a moistening dry season, which is opposite to observations. Analysis of the globally averaged moisture budget in the historical climate simulations of the two models shows little change in the horizontal moisture advection in both the wet and dry seasons. The globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are mainly dominated by the changes in evaporation and vertical moisture advection. Evaporation and vertical moisture advection combine to make wet seasons wetter and enhance the annual range. In the dry season, the opposite change of evaporation and vertical moisture advection leads to an insignificant change in precipitation. Vertical moisture advection is the most important term that determines the changes in precipitation, wherein the thermodynamic component is dominant and the dynamic component tends to offset the effect of the thermodynamic component.     

TASTE IV: Refining ephemeris and orbital parameters for HAT‐P‐20b and WASP‐1b

We present four new light curves of the transiting exoplanets WASP‐1b and HAT‐P‐20b, observed within the TASTE (The Asiago Search for Transit timing variations of Exoplanets) project. We re‐analyzed light curves from the literature in a homogeneous way, calculating a refined ephemeris and orbital‐physical parameters for both objects. WASP‐1b does not show any significant Transit Timing Variation signal at the 120 s level. As for HAT‐P‐20b, we detected a deviation from our re‐estimated linear ephemeris that could be ascribed to the presence of a perturber or, more probably, to a previously unnoticed high level of stellar activity. The rotational period of HAT‐P‐20 A that we obtained from archival data (P_rot ≃ 14.5 d), combined with its optical variability and strong emission of Ca ii H & K lines, is consistent with a young stellar age (<1 Gyr) and support the hypothesis that stellar activity may be responsible of the measured deviations of the transit times. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Evaluation of Atmospheric Circulation in the Southern Hemisphere in 20CRv2

Evaluation of the mean climate and climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere(SH)in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data version 2(20CRv2)is conducted and the results are compared with the NCEP/NCAR version 2 Reanalysis data(NCEPv2)and the Hadley Center sea-level pressure data(HadSLPv2).The results show that SH polar High,SH subtropical High,upper level split jet,cross-equatorial flow,Antarctic Oscillation(AAO),and the pattern of Pacific-South-America(PSA)has been effectively captured by 20CRv2 during1979–2010,with an apparent zonal asymmetry of AAO in the austral winter(June-July-August,JJA).The notable upward linear trend of AAO in the entire period of 1871–2010 is represented in both 20CRv2 and HadSlPv2.The most remarkable discrepancy of the SH climate variability between 20CRv2 and HadSLPv2 occurred in 1897–1920and was partly caused by such factors as the paucity of meteorological and oceanographic data in the SH to be assimilated,the handling of the specified sea-ice concentration in South Pole,and imperfect climate models.The consistency of these reanalysis data is increased with the use of a large amount of satellite observation and radiosonde data,particularly after 1979.     

新疆阿尔泰山额尔齐斯河源区不同降水观测方法对比分析及1980-2015年降水变化研究

合理评估不同降水观测仪器的精度是评价区域降水变化的前提。基于阿尔泰山额尔齐斯河源区库威水文站ø20 cm标准雨量筒的人工降水观测和库威积雪站T-200b的自动降水观测,对比分析了T-200b和ø20 cm标准雨量筒的观测精度,在此基础上,基于1980-2015年库威水文站的降水观测,分析了阿尔泰山额尔齐斯河源区的降水变化。结果表明：两种方法观测的日降水、月降水和年降水量均具有良好的相关性;两种方法观测液态降水相关性要明显优于固态降水;随着降雨强度的增加,两种观测方法的相关性显著增强。总体上,T-200b观测的降水量较ø20 cm标准雨量筒偏高。1980-2015年间额尔齐斯河源区的年降水量以2005年为转折点呈现"先增加后减小"的变化趋势,且冷季（11月至次年3月）的降水增加显著,冷季的降水占年降水量的比例呈现逐渐增加的变化趋势。降水和融雪过程的变化已导致春季融雪水文过程发生改变,进一步合理评估地表可利用水资源的年内重分配是该地区水安全的重要保障。     

紫外辐射增强对菠菜种子萌发及出苗的影响

研究了紫外辐射（UA－B）增强对圆叶和尖叶菠菜种子萌发出苗的影响，结果表明，UV－B辐射增强将显著降低圆叶菠菜种子的出牙率和出苗率，延缓发牙进程，出苗速度，影响幼长势，而对尖叶菠菜的影响较小，增强UV－B辐射还能有效抑制菠菜种子发牙时因病菌感染而发生的霉变，并减少幼苗期病虫害的蔓延和发展。     

近千年全球温度变化研究的新进展

结合国内外有关研究,综合评述了美国国家科学院国家研究理事会的报告 --"近两千年地面温度的重建"。重点介绍了气候变暖的新证据,3个特征时期即20世纪气候变暖、小冰期（LIA）、中世纪暖期（MWP）和近千年温度变化模拟的结果。     

IPCC AR4模式中夏季西太平洋副高南北位置特征的模拟

利用IPCCAR4中8个气候系统模式的环流、对流和降水资料,结合实际的观测及再分析资料,从年际尺度上比较分析了这些气候系统模式对夏季西太平洋副热带高压南北位置、暖池对流和江淮降水关系的模拟能力,结果表明在西太平洋副热带高压随纬度分布的模拟中,经向分辨率高的模式存在一定的优势。在夏季西太平洋副热带高压的南北位置、暖池对流和江淮降水关系的模拟上,GFDL-CM2.1能合理地表征三者之间的关系;在影响东亚夏季风年际变化的东亚太平洋遥相关型的模拟上,GFDL-CM2.1和ECHAM5_MPI/OM能够较好地模拟出其特征,其中前者模拟结果要明显好于后者。同时利用GFDL-CM2.1在SRES A1B情景下的试验结果,EAP(East Asia/Pacific)指数与中国东部降水的变化关系得出,随着大气中二氧化碳浓度增加,在21世纪前期,江淮偏旱的概率较高;21世纪后期,江淮降水可能偏多。     

2013年初夏长江下游降水低频分量延伸期预报的多变量时滞回归模型

用长江下游降水低频分量和南半球中纬度地区850 hPa低频经向风主成分,建立多变量时滞回归 (multivariable lagged regression, MLR)模型,对2013年6—7月长江下游降水低频分量进行延伸期逐日变化预报试验。结果表明, 20~30 d时间尺度的长江下游低频降水预测时效可达25~30 d。进一步对2001—2012年资料分别构建的MLR模型的历史回报预测试验表明,对于20~30 d振荡较强和正常的年份,南半球中纬度绕球遥相关(south circum global teleconnection, SCGT)波列是预测初夏长江下游低频降水未来30 d变化的显著信号。基于南半球SCGT的发展和演变,对于提前20 d以上预报长江下游地区2013年7月上旬持续强降水过程异常变化过程很有帮助,南半球热带外环流低频变化是影响初夏长江下游地区延伸期强降水变化的重要因子之一。     

Spectral dependence on the correction factor of erythemal UV for cloud,aerosol, total ozone,and surface properties: A modeling study

Radiative transfer model simulations were used to investigate the erythemal ultraviolet(EUV) correction factors by separating the UV-A and UV-B spectral ranges. The correction factor was defined as the ratio of EUV caused by changing the amounts and characteristics of the extinction and scattering materials. The EUV correction factors(CFEUV) for UV-A[CFEUV(A)] and UV-B [CFEUV(B)] were affected by changes in the total ozone, optical depths of aerosol and cloud, and the solar zenith angle. The differences between CFEUV(A) and CFEUV(B) were also estimated as a function of solar zenith angle, the optical depths of aerosol and cloud, and total ozone. The differences between CFEUV(A) and CFEUV(B) ranged from-5.0% to 25.0% for aerosols, and from-9.5% to 2.0% for clouds in all simulations for different solar zenith angles and optical depths of aerosol and cloud. The rate of decline of CFEUV per unit optical depth between UV-A and UV-B differed by up to 20% for the same aerosol and cloud conditions. For total ozone, the variation in CFEUV(A) was negligible compared with that in CFEUV(B) because of the effective spectral range of the ozone absorption band. In addition, the sensitivity of the CFEUVs due to changes in surface conditions(i.e., surface albedo and surface altitude) was also estimated by using the model in this study. For changes in surface albedo, the sensitivity of the CFEUVs was 2.9%–4.1% per 0.1 albedo change,depending on the amount of aerosols or clouds. For changes in surface altitude, the sensitivity of CFEUV(B) was twice that of CFEUV(A), because the Rayleigh optical depth increased significantly at shorter wavelengths.