青藏高原北部地区未来3～5年内强震形势研究

应用统计分析、有序性分析、干支预测模型、可公度模型等方法,对青藏高原北部地区7级强震以及青海省M≥6级强震的危险性进行预测估计。结果表明,目前该区累积发震概率已达60％,到2000年初将达到75％,2000年前后有可能发生7级强震,青海省1998年前后有可能发生M≥6．5级强震。     

利用CHRIS/PROBA数据定量反演草地LAI方法研究

以内蒙古锡林河流域典型草地为研究样区,基于新一代微卫星CHRIS/PROBA高光谱遥感数据,利用双层冠层反射率模型(A two - layer Canopy Reflectance Model,ACRM)定量反演叶面积指数(LAI).首先对高光谱数据进行预处理和统计分析,并结合反演结果对角度信息的敏感性进行分析,确定适...     

The Construction of SCM in GRAPES and Its Applications in Two Field Experiment Simulations

A Single Column Model(SCM) for Global and Regional Atmospheric Prediction Enhanced System (GRAPES) is constructed for the purpose of evaluating physical process parameterizations.Two observational datasets including Wangara and the third Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study(GABLS-3) SCM field observations have been applied to evaluate this SCM.By these two numerical experiments,the GRAPES_SCM is verified to be correctly constructed.Furthermore, the interaction between the land surface process and atmospheric boundary layer(ABL) is discussed through the second experiment.It is found that CASE3(CoLM land surface scheme coupled with ABL scheme) simulates less sensible heat fluxes and smaller surface temperature which corresponds with its lower potential temperature at the bottom of the ABL.Moreover,CASE3 simulates turbulence that is weaker during the daytime and stronger during nighttime,corresponding with its wind speed at 200 m which is bigger during daytime and smaller during nighttime.However,they are generally opposite in CASE2(SLAB coupled with ABL).The initial profile of the water vapor mixing ratio is artificially increased by the experiment setup which results in the simulated water vapor mixing becoming wetter than actually observed.CASE1 (observed surface temperature taken as lower thermal forcing) and CASE2 have no soil moisture prediction and simulate a similar water vapor mixing ratio,while CASE3 has a soil moisture prediction and simulates wetter.It is also shown that the time step may affect the stabilization of the ABL when the vertical levels of the SCM are fixed.     

气候系统模式FGOALS_gl模拟的20世纪气温变化

分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学国家重点实验室(LASG/IAP)发展的快速耦合气候系统模式FGOALS_gl对近100年气温变化的模拟,讨论了20世纪气温变化的机理。结果表明,在自然因素和人为因素的共同强迫作用下,FGOALS_gl能够合理再现20世纪全球平均和纬向平均地表气温随时间的演变。利用太阳辐照度等自然强迫、温室气体和气溶胶等人为强迫因子来驱动耦合模式,能够模拟出过去100年全球平均气温的增温趋势和年代际变化。耦合模式可以较好地模拟出20世纪全球气温变化趋势的空间分布。对区域气温变化模拟效果的分析表明,除北大西洋外,FGOALS_gl对其他地区具有较高的模拟技巧,表明外强迫是造成多数地区气温变化的主要原因。FGOALS_gl的主要缺陷在于模拟的变暖强度偏弱,大气模式自身的偏差以及耦合模式对温室气体响应的敏感度偏低是造成上述缺陷的主要原因。总体而言,FGOALS_gl对20世纪气温变化的模拟效果较为理想,特别是在全球、半球和大陆尺度上,该模式对过去100年气温变化的模拟较为合理。     

Development of a Downscaling Method in China Regional Summer Precipitation Prediction

A downscaling method taking into account of precipitation regionalization is developed and used in the regional summer precipitation prediction (RSPP) in China. The downscaling is realized by utilizing the optimal subset regression based on the hindcast data of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Climate Model of National Climate Center (CGCM/NCC), the historical reanalysis data, and the observations. The data are detrended in order to remove the influence of the interannual variations on the selection of predictors for the RSPP. Optimal predictors are selected through calculation of anomaly correlation coe±cients (ACCs) twice to ensure that the high-skill areas of the CGCM/NCC are also those of observations, with the ACC value reaching the 0.05 significant level. One-year out cross-validation and independent sample tests indicate that the downscaling method is applicable in the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly across most of China with high and stable accuracy, and is much better than the direct CGCM/NCC prediction. The predictors used in the downscaling method for the RSPP are independent and have strong physical meanings, thus leading to the improvements in the prediction of regional precipitation anomalies.     

基于Midas/GTS的FLAC3D边坡建模技术及工程应用

探讨了如何基于Midas/GTS来实现用FLAC3D建立复杂边坡模型。首先在Midas/GTS中建立几何模型和划分网格,然后根据两种软件的网格数据形式进行转换,把Midas/GTS的网格模型导入FLAC3D中。对于二维边坡问题,认为采用四边形单元比三角形单元的计算精度更高,在模型较为复杂的情况下建议在Midas/GTS中采用四边形+三角形的方式生成混合网格,然后导入FLAC3D中形成brick+wedge形式的混合网格进行分析,以保证计算精度。最后将上述建模方法应用于某边坡工程的稳定性分析,验证了该建模方法的可行性和实用性。     

云南个旧锡矿山地质环境模型

文章以重金属元素为研究对象,在系统野外采样与分析工作的基础上,给出了云南个旧锡矿山的地质环境模型.影响环境的因素有:个旧原生矿床富含多金属硫化物,氧化后易生成酸;碳酸盐可以消耗硫化物氧化所产生的酸并可防止金属的迁移.矿山开发之前由矿床向环境释放的元素重量,Cu为1.21万吨、Pb为7.0万吨、Cd为101.91吨、As...     

Regional Oceanic Impact on Circulation and Direct Radiative Effect of Aerosol over East Asia

The Regional Integrated Environmental Model System(RIEMS 2.0) coupled with a chemistry-aerosol model and the Princeton Ocean Model(POM) is employed to simulate regional oceanic impact on atmospheric circulation and the direct radiative effect(DRE) of aerosol over East Asia.The aerosols considered in this study include both major anthropogenic aerosols(e.g.,sulfate,black carbon,and organic carbon) and natural aerosols(e.g.,soil dust and sea salt) .The RIEMS 2.0 is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis II,and the simulated period is from 1 January to 31 December 2006.The results show the following:(1) The simulated annual mean sea-level pressure by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is lower than without POM over the mainland and higher without POM over the ocean.(2) In summer,the subtropical high simulated by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is stronger and extends further westward,and the continental low is stronger than without POM in summer.(3) The aerosol optical depth(AOD) simulated by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is larger in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River than without POM.(4) The direct radiative effect with POM is stronger than that without POM in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of southern China. Therefore,the authors should take account of the impact of the regional ocean model on studying the direct climate effect of aerosols in long term simulation.     

徐家围子断陷火山机构叠置关系解析及其数字化模型参数建立

随着庆深气田勘探开发工作的不断深入,揭示出火山岩气藏以孤立火山机构控藏的特征,火山岩地层的非均质性特征非常明显,为提高火山岩气藏的综合研究程度,实现认识上的飞跃.在松辽盆地北部徐家围子断陷密井网-三维地震工区,开展了地质先验模型约束下的地震火山机构解剖.识别出层状、穹窿和漏斗形三种火山机构;它们的叠置方式有串珠、上叠和...     

三维拓扑数据的生成算法与交互修改方法研究

在分析现有三维矢量拓扑关系的基础上,提出了三维矢量数据结构的要素拓扑模型（Feature Topological Mod—el,FTM）。FTM三维拓扑模型比传统三维模型的优势有3点：（1）直接引入三角形对象,更加有利于表示任意形状的三维体数据。（2）简化基本拓扑关系的定义,使用相对简单的三角形和边的拓扑关系,表达相对复杂的实体和曲线的拓扑关系;使用带拓扑关系的边的集合表示三维曲线,既表达了曲线对象,又不影响基本拓扑关系的维护。（3）使用实体之间的包含模型,解决环（洞）的拓扑关系。同时,使用FTM对三维离散三角形数据进行拓扑化处理,对其中存在的拓扑错误提出具体的解决方案。该拓扑模型成功应用于自主研发的三维勘查软件“探矿者”中。