北极冰下声传播特性实验研究

通过2017年8月6日在北极海域开展的一次声传播实验,开展了冰下声传播特性实验研究。结合Burke-Twersky （BT）散射模型与射线模型,分析了冰下声传播的多途到达结构,研究了接收声强变化规律,解释了接收声强在30 min内衰减20 dB的现象,分析了接收信号的时间相关性,探讨了接收信号相关性较低的原因。实验结果表明,表面接收信号主要由小角度多次反转反射声线、一次海底反射声线和二次海底反射声线依次构成,表面声道到达信号显著强于海底反射信号。试验冰站在试验期间的运动导致了声传播信号强度和相关性的迅速衰减,并通过仿真得到了验证。     

A high-precision heuristic model to detect home and work locations from smart card data

Smart card-automated fare collection systems now routinely record large volumes of data comprising the origins and destinations of travelers. Processing and analyzing these data open new opportunities in urban modeling and travel behavior research. This study seeks to develop an accurate framework for the study of urban mobility from smart card data by developing a heuristic primary location model to identify the home and work locations. The model uses journey counts as an indicator of usage regularity, visit-frequency to identify activity locations for regular commuters, and stay-time for the classification of work and home locations and activities. London is taken as a case study, and the model results were validated against survey data from the London Travel Demand Survey and volunteer survey. Results demonstrate that the proposed model is able to detect meaningful home and work places with high precision. This study offers a new and cost-effective approach to travel behavior and demand research.     

1997–1998 El Niño off Peru: A numerical study

An eddy-resolving numerical simulation for the Peru–Chile system between 1993 and 2000 is analyzed, mainly for the 1997–1998 El Niño. Atmospheric and lateral oceanic forcings are realistic and contain a wide range of scales from days to interannual. The solution is validated against altimetric observations and the few in situ observations available. The simulated 1997–1998 El Niño closely resembles the real 1997–1998 El Niño in its time sequence of events. The two well-marked, sea-level peaks in May–June and November–December 1997 are reproduced with amplitudes close to those observed. Other sub-periods of the El Niño seem to be captured adequately. Simple dynamical analyses are performed to explain the 1997–1998 evolution of the upwelling in the model. The intensity of the upwelling appears to be determined by an interplay between alongshore, poleward advection (related to coastal trapped waves) and wind intensity, but also by the cross-shore geostrophic flow and distribution of the water masses on a scale of 1000 km or more (involving Rossby waves westward propagation and advection from equatorial currents). In particular, the delay of upwelling recovery until fall 1998 (i.e., well after the second El Niño peak) is partly due to the persistent advection of offshore stratified water toward the coast of Peru. Altimetry data suggest that these interpretations of the numerical solution also apply to the real ocean.     

Econometric analysis of the ship demolition market

The topic of ship recycling has obtained considerable attention during the last two decades for a variety of reasons with the likelihood of the adoption of a new international convention under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This study applies econometric modeling to a unique data set to provide insight into the dynamics of the ship recycling market. The data set contains information on 51,112 ships over 100 gt and includes 748,621 events over a period of 29 years. The analysis confirms a negative relationship of earnings and a positive relationship of scrap prices for all locations while Bangladesh seems to be more sensitive to changes in earnings than the other locations and more likely demolishes larger and older vessels. The results for flag and ownership vary across scrapping locations with Malta and Cyprus indicating potential importance from a registry perspective. The overall safety profile of a vessel seems to be less important towards the probability of a ship being scrapped. Possible implementation of the convention at EU level will mostly likely affect Turkey while non-ratification of one of the major flags will most likely affect China or Bangladesh.     

象山港水交换数值研究 Ⅱ.模型应用和水交换研究

使用水平二维对流－扩散型水交换模式模拟研究了象山港的水交换,对不同区域的水交换控制机理作了初步探讨,象山港水交换状况与其控制机制的区域性变化很大。牛鼻水道至佛渡水道是一个潮流较强的潮通道;９０％水交换周期为５天左右。象山港狭湾内水交换周期较长,湾顶处９０％水交换的周期约为８０天左右。     

Response and capacity of monopod caisson foundation under eccentric lateral loads

Monopod caisson foundation is a viable alternative for supporting offshore wind turbines located at shallow water depths. This foundation system has to resist overturning moment generated due to resultant lateral load, arising from wind and water wave action, that can act at any loading height above the seabed. This paper presents results of a numerical investigation performed to determine the influence of loading height, caisson geometry and superstructure load on the ultimate lateral capacity, initial stiffness, and soil failure zone of the foundation, when installed in very dense sand. Both the ultimate and serviceable states of the caisson foundation obtained from the analyses are represented in terms of envelopes plotted between lateral load and overturning moment. Simplified expressions, which take into account the influence of caisson geometry, loading height, and soil properties, are also presented to serve as a preliminary base for design of the monopod caisson foundation.     

基于机器学习的格点气温预报订正方法

使用2017年9月至2021年3月国家级业务化运行的智能网格实况分析产品和欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式(EC)产品,根据湖北省的地理分布特征构建6个分区,采用基于LightGBM机器学习算法建立的气温预报方法,生成湖北省0.05°×0.05°格点气温预报产品。利用2021年4—9月的预报产品和格点实况资料进行检验,结果表明:基于机器学习的气温预报方法(MLT)取得了较好的预报效果,其在0～72 h时效内优于中央气象台下发的气温精细化指导预报(SCMOC)和EC产品;MLT在山区的误差较平原大,但山区的订正幅度大于平原,日最高气温的订正幅度大于日最低气温的订正幅度;4—9月MLT、SCMOC、EC产品的平均绝对误差(MAE)日变化都呈现了白天偏高、夜间偏低、午后凸起的单峰特征,MLT的MAE值较SCMOC和EC产品的更低,并且在转折性天气中仍具有优势;站点检验与格点检验结论一致,基于格点建模的气温预报产品对站点预报同样得到了订正。机器学习在格点气温的模式订正方面可以作为一个行之有效的手段。     

鹿井铀矿床成矿流体演化的地球化学模拟

借助水文地球化学研究中水－岩相互作用地球化学模拟的思路和NETPATH2.0反向地球化学模拟软件,以华南鹿井铀矿床不同成矿阶段矿物包裹体分析资料为基础,对该矿床成矿流体的地球化学演化进行了初步的模拟。结果表明,NETPATH2.0所产生的溶液描述模型提供了比流体包裹体丰富得多的资料和信息,而溶液分配模型则计算出了每种元素（尤其是成矿元素）的若干种存在形式及每种形式的相对重要性。模拟所得到的地球化学模型揭示了矿床内主要相态在成矿流体不同演化阶段的质量迁移情况,为全面理解矿床的形成机制和动力学过程提供了新的途径。     

三维任意形体高密度电阻率法数值模拟方法

为研究高密度电阻率法对各种三维地电体的反映规律，本文介绍了正演程序编制的方法并给出了计算实例。     

工程地震勘探数值模拟研究

用傅氏变换法求解波动方程,对工程地震勘探进行了数值模拟计算,并研究了该算法的频散特性及其稳定性。