兴都库什山及伊朗高原抬升对南亚季风-中亚干旱气候演化影响的模拟研究

新生代以来青藏高原大地形及其周围边缘地形的构造抬升对亚洲气候演化有着深远而复杂的影响。目前的气候代用指标表明南亚季风的开始可以追溯到始新世, 随后在早中新世和晚中新世经历了显著的加强过程。同时, 构造地质证据表明兴都库什山脉和伊朗高原的隆升可能开始于10~12 Ma。兴都库什山脉和伊朗高原作为南亚季风和中亚干旱区之间的天然地理屏障, 其对南亚季风和中亚干旱区气候演化和分异是否有一定的影响, 目前尚未可知。本研究利用高分辨率的大气环流模式系统性评估了兴都库什山脉和伊朗高原对南亚和中亚气候的影响。结果表明, 兴都库什和伊朗高原对南亚季风的加强和中亚干旱区降水的抑制均有贡献。相较而言, 兴都库什山脉对南亚季风的加强和向北扩张起主导作用。兴都库什山脉引起的南亚夏季降水增量达到兴都库什和伊朗高原共同作用的65.6 %。兴都库什山脉抬升后, 南亚地区15° N以北, 尤其是印度半岛中部和西北部夏季降水均显著增加, 阿拉伯海对流层低层的西南风和印度西北部偏南风显著加强。伊朗高原对中亚干旱区的干旱化作用更强, 并以冬季变化为主导。伊朗高原引起的中亚地区冬季降水减少量占兴都库什和伊朗高原共同作用的71.4 %。伊朗高原抬升后, 中亚地区冬季的盛行西风显著减弱, 从而导致降水显著减少。本研究的数值模拟试验表明, 地质记录揭示的南亚季风在晚中新世的加强可能与兴都库什山脉和伊朗高原在该阶段的抬升密切相关。

     

“Greatest lake period” and its palaeo-environment on the Tibetan Plateau

The “greatest lake period” means that the lakes are in the stage of their maximum areas. As the paleo lake shorelines are widely distributed in the lake basins on the Tibetan Plateau, the lake areas during the “greatest lake period” may be inferred by the last highest lake shorelines. They are several, even tens times larger than that at present. According to the analyses of tens of lakes on the Plateau, most dating data fell into the range of 40-25 ka BP, some lasted to 20 ka BP. It was corresponded to the stage 3 of marine isotope and interstitial of last glaciation. The occurrence of maximum areas of lakes marked the very humid period on the Plateau and was also related to the stronger summer monsoon during that period.     

青藏高原草地地上生物量和理论载畜量

准确模拟和预测草地地上生物量(Aboveground biomass,AGB)和理论载畜量对于维持草地生态系统平衡、优化放牧管理至关重要。当前很多研究以围栏外草地AGB为基础,估算了青藏高原草地AGB的现存量。但是,牛羊啃食后的草地AGB现存量无法准确评估草地理论载畜量。围栏内草地不受家畜采食影响,其年际变率由环境因子驱动,可视为草地潜在AGB (potential AGB,AGB_p),更适用于草地理论载畜量的评估。本研究以青藏高原345个围栏内AGB观测数据为基础,结合气候、土壤和地形数据,利用随机森林算法构建草地潜在地上生物量估算模型,并对当前气候条件(2000-2018年)和未来20年(2021-2040年)4种气候变化情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)下的草地AGB_p和高寒草地理论载畜量进行模拟与预测。结果表明:(1)随机森林算法可准确模拟当前气候条件下的青藏高寒草地AGB_p(R²=0.76,P<0.001);2000-2018年青藏高寒草地AGB_p平均值为102.4 g m^-2,时间上增加趋势不明显(P>0.05);AGB_p年际波动和生长季降水显著正相关(R²=0.57,P<0.001),和生长季温度日较差显著负相关(R²=0.51,P<0.001)。(2)当前气候条件下,青藏高寒草地平均理论载畜量为0.94 SSU ha^-1(standardized sheep unit ha^-1);在过去20年约有54.1%草地理论载畜量呈提升状态。(3)和当前相比,未来20年青藏高原中部和北部草地AGB_p和理论载畜量呈下降态势。因此,建议未来在厘清气候变化影响下草畜关系的基础上进行有针对性的草牧业规划和管理,以缓解区域气候变化引起的草畜矛盾。     

Irregular western margin of the Yangtze block as a cause of variation in tectonic activity along the Longmen Shan fault zone,eastern Tibet

On 12 May 2008 and 20 April 2013, respectively, the devastating magnitude 7.9 (Wenchuan) and magnitude 7.0 (Ya’an) earthquakes struck the southwestern Longmen Shan fault zone (LMSFZ), the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. These events were notable because they occurred in a heavily populated area and resulted in severe damage and loss of life. Here we present an integrated analysis of potential field anomalies and a crustal-scale seismic reflection image to investigate the crustal structure and some tectonic relationships associated with these devastating events. Our results show that the western margin of the Yangtze crustal block possesses an irregular margin that extends westward beyond the LMSFZ to the northeast and merges gradually with the LMSFZ to the southwest. We interpret this variation in deep structure to create a lateral heterogeneity in the local stress regime that explains the observed variations in fault geometry and slip distribution, as well as seismicity, of the LMSFZ. This structural complexity results in a differential build-up of stress as the Tibetan Plateau is being extruded eastward. Thus, the results of this research can help identify potential natural hazard zones and focus efforts on hazard mitigation.     

藏北青南高原地表风蚀粗化特征

藏北青南高原长期受风蚀影响,地表粗化现象明显。本研究系统采集该区东西向调查样带内表层（0~1 cm）与浅层（1~10 cm）土壤样品,通过粒度测定、构建能够表征土壤风蚀粗化程度的风蚀粗化指数（WECI）,分析该区地表风蚀粗化特征。结果表明：藏北青南高原土壤中砾石、极粗砂、粗砂等粗颗粒组分在表层土壤中含量较浅层土壤有所增加,自西向东逐渐减少;黏土与粉砂等细颗粒组分相反,表层较浅层土壤中含量明显下降,自西向东逐渐增加。从样带东部的高寒草甸区到中部高寒草原区和西部高寒草原与荒漠草原过渡区,表层土壤环境敏感组分逐渐变粗,各区域平均风蚀粗化指数依次为1.05、1.47和1.77,地表风蚀粗化趋于加剧。现有文献常用的土壤粒度分形维数与土壤质地粗化度是刻画土壤质地粗细程度的静态指标,无法衡量风蚀导致的地表颗粒组成变化,本文构建的风蚀粗化指数克服了上述不足,且具有风蚀动力学依据。     

Cluster analysis on summer precipitation field over Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2004

The summer day-by-day precipitation data of 97 meteorological stations on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2004 were selected to analyze the temporal-spatial dis-tribution through accumulated variance, correlation analysis, regression analysis, empirical orthogonal function, power spectrum function and spatial analysis tools of GIS. The result showed that summer precipitation occupied a relatively high proportion in the area with less annual precipitation on the Plateau and the correlation between summer precipitation and annual precipitation was strong. The altitude of these stations and summer precipitation ten-dency presented stronger positive correlation below 2000 m, with correlation value up to 0.604 (α=0.01). The subtracting tendency values between 1961–1983 and 1984–2004 at five altitude ranges (2000–2500 m, 2500–3000 m, 3500–4000 m, 4000–4500 m and above 4500 m) were above zero and accounted for 71.4% of the total. Using empirical orthogonal function, summer precipitation could be roughly divided into three precipitation pattern fields: the Southeast Plateau Pattern Field, the Northeast Plateau Pattern field and the Three Rivers' Headstream Regions Pattern Field. The former two ones had a reverse value from the north to the south and opposite line was along 35°N. The potential cycles of the three pattern fields were 5.33a, 21.33a and 2.17a respectively, tested by the confidence probability of 90%. The station altitudes and summer precipitation potential cycles presented strong negative corre-lation in the stations above 4500 m, with correlation value of –0.626 (α=0.01). In Three Rivers Headstream Regions summer precipitation cycle decreased as the altitude rose in the sta-tions above 3500 m and increased as the altitude rose in those below 3500 m. The empirical orthogonal function analysis in June precipitation, July precipitation and August precipitation showed that the June precipitation pattern field was similar to the July’s, in which southern Plateau was positive and northern Plateau negative. But positive value area in July precipita-tion pattern field was obviously less than June’s. The August pattern field was totally opposite to June’s and July’s. The positive area in August pattern field jumped from the southern Pla-teau to the northern Plateau.     

分布式侵蚀预报模型中网格面积的选定——以黄土高原丘陵沟壑区为例

在分布式土壤侵蚀过程模型中 ,承载数据以及进行运算的最小单元 ,即基本地块的选取是非常关键的 ,它直接关系到模型的模拟精度和运算数据量。目前大多数分布式模型都采用平均布设矩形网格的方法 ,这种方法在基本网格的大小选取上存在着盲目性和不统一性。本文以黄土高原丘陵沟壑区为例 ,利用GIS和SPSS分析了黄土高原丘陵沟壑区属性均一的基本地块在面积上的统计规律 ,给出了基本地块选取的合理依据 ,以促进建立更好的分布式模型     

黄土高原地区土地覆盖变化对气候的反馈作用数值模拟

区域尺度土地覆盖变化是自然变化和人类活动共同驱动的结果,同时又对区域气候环境产生反馈。利用欧洲中值数值预报中心（ECMWF） ERA-Interim再分析资料,驱动RegCM4.5区域气候模式,进行了两个时间段（1980-2014、2005-2014）的数值模拟试验。以1：250 000土地利用图为基础,结合植被图、土壤图制作具有高精度、极强现势性的土地覆盖资料,区域模式中陆面过程模式采用BATS,模拟了现实的土地覆盖改变对气候要素的影响,分析了黄土高原地区土地覆盖变化对气候的反馈作用。结果表明：（1） RegCM4.5不但能够较好描述黄土高原气温、降水的时间空间分布特征,也能够模拟土地覆盖变化对黄土高原局地气候变化的反馈。（2）不同土地覆盖变化特征对气候反馈作用不同,荒漠化会引起局部地区气温升高和降水减少,并通过正反馈机制,致使自然植被生长发育受阻;水域旱化会导致夏季气温升高和降水增加,从而加剧干旱洪涝灾害风险;草地覆盖增加会导致春夏季降水量与气温的降低,秋冬季降水量与气温升高。（3）土地覆盖变化对气温与降水的影响在夏季较强。该研究可促进对黄土高原生态治理环境效应的理解,也能深化对土地利用-气候变化之间互馈作用的过程认识,并为区域生态建设对策选择提供参考。     

黄土高原沟谷地貌发育演化研究进展与展望

黄土沟谷是黄土地貌中最有活力、最具变化、最富特色的对象单元,黄土高原千沟万壑的地貌形态以及触目惊心的侵蚀状态也让区域内沟谷地貌的形成、发育及演化问题成为研究中焦点及前沿性科学问题。近年来,诸多学者采用地学测年法、特征表达法、监测模拟法力图实现对黄土沟谷发育演化进程中“过去-现代-未来”的科学认知。这些研究在相当程度上丰富了黄土沟谷发育过程的认知。本文梳理了黄土高原沟谷地貌演化相关研究的现状,并从黄土高原地貌演化、黄土沟谷发育、基于DEM的沟谷信息提取与表达等研究进行了系统的回顾、梳理与分析。此外,本文提出“黄土沟道剖面群组”概念与方法,试图从新的视角审视黄土沟谷地貌发育演化过程。沟道剖面在黄土沟谷发育演化进程中传递物质能量和累积地形动力,并通过径流节点的串联实现剖面群的连接与组合,形成独特的剖面“群组”模式;该沟道剖面群组是集黄土沟谷地貌特征与过程于一体的综合信息集成体,其三维空间结构是对黄土沟谷地貌发育演化的高度抽象与映射,并可望进一步丰富黄土高原数字地形分析理论与方法体系,为黄土高原黄土地貌成因机理与空间分异格局带来创新的认识。     

常量元素氧化物含量及其比值揭示的中晚全新世以来玛曲高原的环境演变

对玛曲高原具有代表性的黄土-古土壤-风成砂剖面(OL剖面)常量元素氧化物含量及其比值的地球化学特征分析表明:(1)常量元素氧化物总含量为91.93%且SiO₂(67.93%) >Al₂O₃(11.2%) >Fe₂O₃(3.97%) >CaO(3.76%)>K₂O(2.16%) >Na₂O(1.81%) >MgO(1.1%);(2)玛曲高原处于较弱的脱Ca、Na初级风化阶段,并伴有碳酸盐的淋失;(3)玛曲高原的气候经历了冷干-凉润-温湿-凉干的冷暖旋回。依据常量元素氧化物含量及其比值揭示的环境特征并结合¹⁴C测年将玛曲高原中晚全新世以来的环境演变划分为4.6 ka BP以前的风沙活动强烈期、4.6～4.3 ka BP的风沙活动较弱期、4.3～0.3 ka BP的固结成壤期和0.3 ka BP至今的风沙活动增强期4个阶段。