An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for assessing health-impact risk from air pollution

High concentrations of air pollutants in the ambient environment can result in breathing problems with human communities. Effective assessment of health-impact risk from air pollution is important for supporting decisions of the related detection, prevention, and correction efforts. However, the quality of information available for environmental/health risk assessment is often not satisfactory enough to be presented as deterministic numbers. Stochastic method is one of the methods for tackling those uncertainties, by which uncertain information can be presented as probability distributions. However, if the uncertainties can not be presented as probabilities, they can then be handled through fuzzy membership functions. In this study, an integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling (IFSM) approach is developed for assessing air pollution impacts towards asthma susceptibility. This development is based on Monte Carlo simulation for the fate of SO₂ in the ambient environment, examination of SO₂ concentrations based on the simulation results, quantification of evaluation criteria using fuzzy membership functions, and risk assessment based on the combined fuzzy-stochastic information. The IFSM entails (a) simulation for the fate of pollutants in ambient environment, with the consideration of source/medium uncertainties, (b) formulation of fuzzy air quality management criteria under uncertain human-exposure pathways, exposure dynamics, and SPG-response variations, and (c) integrated risk assessment under complexities of the combined fuzzy/stochastic inputs of contamination level and health effect (i.e., asthma susceptibility). The developed IFSM is applied to a study of regional air quality management. Reasonable results have been generated, which are useful for evaluating health risks from air pollution. They also provide support for regional environmental management and urban planning.     

三江源地区冰雹灾害分布特征及其成因

青藏高原腹地的雹灾形成与其它地区有一定的差别。根据三江源地区126个乡整理的近60 a的雹灾数据,分析了青海南部高原雹灾的空间和时间变化规律,并通过对雹灾次数与海拔高程、地形起伏度、居民点密度的相关分析,结果表明：三江源地区雹灾的高发区域为东北部的兴海、同德、贵南等地及南部的称多、玉树、囊谦等2个地区,雹灾主要发生在5～9月份,在6、8月份形成明显的双峰性特点,地形起伏度、居民点密度与雹灾频次具有明显的正相关,海拔高程与雹灾频次呈负相关,雨带推移和生产方式不同是三江源地区雹灾产生空间分异的主要原因。     

Misfit functionals in Laplace‐Fourier domain waveform inversion,with application to wide‐angle ocean bottom seismograph data

In seismic waveform inversion, non‐linearity and non‐uniqueness require appropriate strategies. We formulate four types of L2 normed misfit functionals for Laplace‐Fourier domain waveform inversion: i) subtraction of complex‐valued observed data from complex‐valued predicted data (the ‘conventional phase‐amplitude’ residual), ii) a ‘conventional phase‐only’ residual in which amplitude variations are normalized, iii) a ‘logarithmic phase‐amplitude’ residual and finally iv) a ‘logarithmic phase‐only’ residual in which the only imaginary part of the logarithmic residual is used. We evaluate these misfit functionals by using a wide‐angle field Ocean Bottom Seismograph (OBS) data set with a maximum offset of 55 km. The conventional phase‐amplitude approach is restricted in illumination and delineates only shallow velocity structures. In contrast, the other three misfit functionals retrieve detailed velocity structures with clear lithological boundaries down to the deeper part of the model. We also test the performance of additional phase‐amplitude inversions starting from the logarithmic phase‐only inversion result. The resulting velocity updates are prominent only in the high‐wavenumber components, sharpening the lithological boundaries. We argue that the discrepancies in the behaviours of the misfit functionals are primarily caused by the sensitivities of the model gradient to strong amplitude variations in the data. As the observed data amplitudes are dominated by the near‐offset traces, the conventional phase‐amplitude inversion primarily updates the shallow structures as a result. In contrast, the other three misfit functionals eliminate the strong dependence on amplitude variation naturally and enhance the depth of illumination. We further suggest that the phase‐only inversions are sufficient to obtain robust and reliable velocity structures and the amplitude information is of secondary importance in constraining subsurface velocity models.     

中国经济技术开发区效率测度及时空分异研究

运用数据包络分析法（DEA）及Malmquist生产率指数法,选择实际利用外资额、进口总额作为输入指标与GDP、出口总额作为输出指标,测算了中国41个国家级经济技术开发区2001~2010年的综合效率与全要素生产率指数,并对其时空分异特征进行分析。研究结果表明：① 平均综合效率偏低,总体呈“M”型变化趋势;② 综合效率区域差异明显,西部最高,东部次之,中部最低;③ TFP年均增长率为1.025,处于低速增长状态,说明开发区的整体生产效率逐年改善;④ TFP增长率地区分布为东部最高,西部次之,中部最低,综合效率较高的开发区TFP增长率反而较低;⑤ 对GDP增长速度与TFP增长速度双低的开发区进行分类指导与合理整治,以全面提高开发区的可持续发展能力。     

蜜蜂舐水对蒸发量的影响及对策

蜜蜂采舐蒸发水量,一直不被人们注意,但通过对养蜂人走访调查,并与历年同期蒸发记录对比分析,排除大风等天气现象对蒸发量的影响后,发现蜜蜂舐水干扰后的蒸发结果异常,及时采取措施合理阻断蜜蜂舐水,尽量减少对蒸发的影响。     

优选泥浆配方的模糊数学方法

泥浆试验属于多因素多指标评价试验。应用模糊数学理论中的多目标模糊决策法,根据不同地层的钻进需要,借助计算机编程计算优选泥浆配方是一个行之有效的方法。      

Solid-phase fluorescence determination of chlorins in marine sediments

Chlorophyll degradation products are preserved in marine sediments over timescales of thousands of years. The production of chlorophyll in the water column is related to biological productivity, so chlorophyll degradation products (chlorins) preserved in marine sediments can be used as indicators of paleoproductivity. A new, rapid, non-destructive method of determining chlorin concentrations in marine sediments is presented. Potential interferences associated with the solid-phase fluorescence (SPF) method are explored using reference materials, yet this method compares favorably with spectroscopic and high performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) methods of analysis using marine sediments from Boston Harbor and the continental shelf off northwest Africa.     

中国发展精准农业耕作的基本分析及设计

精准农业耕作（Ｐｒｅｆｉｓｉｏｎ Ｆａｒｍｉｎｇ）是一种把科学的精确性引进农田有余生产的方法。它根据田间作物生长条件和产量状况等差别,应用地理信息系统技术（ＧＩＳ）、 球卫星定位系统（ＧＰＳ）和智能农机技术进行农业生产信息管理及农田投入的调节与控制,从而达到提高效益、避免资源浪费、减少环境污染的目的。目前,经济发达国家已开始推广精准农耕作,广大发展中国家也广泛开展应用研究和实验示范,加国作为世界上     

基于VMD算法在地震数据时频分析中的应用

受新开发的变分模态分解(VMD)的启发,本文引入一种基于VMD的时频分析方法来分析地震数据.VMD的原理是将信号分解成具有一定中心频率的模态分量,通过这些分量来重构原始信号.这种分解方式可以降低各个模态中的残余噪声,同时进一步减少冗余的模态,很好的克服了模态混叠问题.此外,VMD是一种自适应信号分解技术,它可以非递归地将多分量信号分解为几个准正交固有模态函数,与EMD及其推广(如EEMD,CEEMD)相比,有坚实的数学基础.将VMD方法与CEEMD方法进行比较,对合成数据进行测试显示了基于VMD的时频分析方法具有更好的时频聚焦性,同时对实际数据处理也表明该方法具有突出地质特征和地层信息的潜力.     

气候变迁下的古雷电印象浅析

探讨和总结了古雷电研究的4种方法:①地质记录中的古气候标志方法;②氧同位素测量古温度方法;③冰川冰期与气候冷暖方法;④史料记载的研究方法。应用这4种方法分别对史前气候变迁下的古雷电进行描述,然后再从史料记载中,浓缩了古雷电的记录,分析了古雷电印象。