东亚高空急流协同变化对冬季欧亚遥相关型气候效应的影响

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和我国地面735站气温和降水资料,首先分析了欧亚遥相关型的时间演变和结构特征,在此基础上探讨了欧亚遥相关型不同位相时东亚大气环流的差异,并进一步研究了欧亚遥相关型影响我国冬季气温和降水过程中东亚高空急流的重要作用。从结构上看,欧亚遥相关型位势高度异常中心位于250 hPa高度,表现出准正压的结构。欧亚遥相关型位于正位相时,东亚温带急流强度偏弱且位置向北移动;副热带急流强度偏强,两支急流在45°N附近有明显分界;西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压强度增强;东亚大槽加深,槽线倾斜不明显。负位相时则相反。欧亚遥相关型与东亚高空急流的联系是其影响我国气温降水的重要原因。正欧亚遥相关型时,偏弱的温带急流区较强的北风分量有利于北方冷空气南下,从而造成我国气温偏低;偏强的副热带急流区增强的南风将副热带地区暖湿空气向北输送,两支急流协同变化,影响我国冬季降水异常的分布。去掉温带急流或副热带急流偏强的年份,欧亚遥相关型与我国温度、降水的相关性显著减弱,说明欧亚遥相关型是通过东亚高空急流协同变化的桥梁,对我国温度和降水异常产生影响。进一步研究发现,欧亚遥相关型与副热带急流的关系不如其与温带急流稳定,导致在欧亚遥相关型同一位相时东亚高空急流存在两种不同的配置,这种高空急流配置的不唯一性使得东亚高空急流能对欧亚遥相关型的气候效应起到调控作用。     

Stratigraphic architecture of Solander Basin records Southern Ocean currents and subduction initiation beneath southwest New Zealand

Solander Basin is characterized by subduction initiation at the Pacific‐Australia plate boundary, where high biological productivity is found at the northern edge of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Sedimentary architecture results from tectonic influences on accommodation space, sediment supply and ocean currents (via physiography); and climate influence on ocean currents and biological productivity. We present the first seismic‐stratigraphic analysis of Solander Basin based on high‐fold seismic‐reflection data (voyage MGL1803, SISIE). Solander Trough physiography formed by Eocene rifting, but basinal strata are mostly younger than ca. 17 Ma, when we infer Puysegur Ridge formed and sheltered Solander Basin from bottom currents, and mountain growth onshore increased sediment supply. Initial inversion on the Tauru Fault started at ca. 15 Ma, but reverse faulting from 12 to ca. 8 Ma on both the Tauru and Parara Faults was likely associated with reorganization and formation of the subduction thrust. The new seabed topography forced sediment pathways to become channelized at low points or antecedent gorges. Since 5 Ma, southern Puysegur Ridge and Fiordland mountains spread out towards the east and Solander Anticline grew in response to ongoing subduction and growth of a slab. Solander Basin had high sedimentation rates because (1) it is sheltered from bottom currents by Puysegur Ridge; and (2) it has a mountainous land area that supplies sediment to its northern end. Sedimentary architecture is asymmetric due to the Subtropical Front, which moves pelagic and hemi‐pelagic sediment, including dilute parts of gravity flows, eastward and accretes contourites to the shelf south of Stewart Island. Levees, scours, drifts and ridges of folded sediment characterize western Solander Basin, whereas hemi‐pelagic drape and secondary gravity flows are found east of the meandering axial Solander Channel. The high‐resolution record of climate and tectonics that Solander Basin contains may yield excellent sites for future scientific ocean drilling.     

初夏西太平洋副高南北位置长期变化的成因及预报

利用月平均高度场和海温场资料，通过统计相关分析，探讨了初夏西太平洋副热带高压南北位置长期变化的规律及其成因，结果表明，初夏副高南北位置存在着１１年左右和３－５年的准周期振荡，这种周期变化分别与太阳活动、海洋下垫面和对流层上部位势高度场类似的周期振荡相吻合。太阳黑子高值年、赤道东太平洋暖水期、热带中东太平洋对流层上部位势高度偏高阶段，初夏西太平洋副高位置偏南，反之偏北。最后建立了６月份副高脊线的预报方法。     

华北夏季旱涝的前期环流异常及其与北太平洋海温的关系

文章分析了华北地区夏季旱涝的前期春季大气环流和北太平洋海温异常（SSTA）分布特征,探讨SSTA与异常环流的关系,并用OSU-AGCM进行黑潮地区热源异常强迫的数值试验。结果表明,当春季北极低涡明显减弱,欧亚大陆中高纬度地区纬向环流加强,西太平洋副高位置偏北偏西,且存在负PNA型异常环流时,华北地区夏季多雨涝;反之则少雨干旱。此时,西北太平洋和赤道东太平洋SST分别存在较大的正、负异常,它们与春季环流异常密切相关,黑潮区SSTA对北半球副热带及其以北的大气环流产生显著影响,正的SSTA是造成华北夏涝年的前期春季异常环流形势的重要因素。     

北太平洋副热带环流变异及其对我国近海动力环境的影响

我国东部陆架海和南海是国防安全的重要门户;位处第二岛链以西的副热带北太平洋既是各国争夺的重要海区,又是我国从近海走向大洋的重要通道.围绕"北太平洋副热带环流变异如何通过黑潮与我国近海动力环境之间相互作用"这一国际前沿科学问题,国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"北太平洋副热带环流变异及其对我国近海动力环境的影响"于2007年9月正式立项.该项目不仅有助于拓展和丰富海洋动力学理论,揭示我国近海及邻近大洋动力环境变异机制,提高预测能力,而且也将为维护我国国防安全和海洋权益,为可持续开发利用海洋资源提供海洋动力环境保障.该项目主要研究内容包括:①北太平洋副热带环流变异和调整机理;②黑潮与我国近海的能量与水体交换过程及机制;③北太平洋副热带环流变异与大气驱动力的耦合效应;④我国近海及邻近大洋动力环境变异的可预测性研究.拟解决的关键科学问题为:北太平洋副热带内区环流变异的机理及其对黑潮的影响;黑潮源头变异机理及其对吕宋海峡水交换的影响和黑潮变异机理及其对东部陆架海域动力环境的影响.     

呼和浩特市夏季降水与影响因子的相关分析

利用呼和浩特市南郊1961-2008年夏季降水资料与海温、亚洲季风、西太平洋副热带高压和东亚阻塞高压等因子进行相关分析,结果表明：这些因子的异常变化,可以作为呼和浩特市南郊夏季降水的预测信号。     

Millennial‐scale fire and vegetation history from a mesic hardwood forest of southeastern Wisconsin,USA

High‐resolution charcoal analysis of lake sediment cores was used to reconstruct the fire history from two sites in a mesic hardwood forest of south‐eastern Wisconsin located in the Kettle Moraine State Forest. Pollen data from the region indicate that the sites, which lie within 5 km of each other, have had a consistent presence of mesic hardwood forest for the last 6500 years. A pollen record from one of the sites confirmed the regional vegetation history and the charcoal analysis indicated that fire frequency at each site was temporally linked to regional drought. Periods of high fire occurrence occurred in connection with a region‐wide drought 4200 years ago and, over the last 2000 years, shorter‐scale regional droughts were centred at 1800, 1650, 1100, 1000, 800, 700 and 600 cal a BP. The fire histories indicate that the last 1000 years have had lower fire frequencies than the previous 6500 years and suggest that the mesic hardwood forests may be resilient to increases in fire that may result from future climate change. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of soybean production as an underlying driver of deforestation in the South American Chaco

South America’s tropical dry forests and savannas are under increasing pressure from agricultural expansion. Cattle ranching and soybean production both drive these forest losses, but their relative importance remains unclear. Also unclear is how soybean expansion elsewhere affects deforestation via pushing cattle ranching to deforestation frontiers. To assess these questions, we focused on the Chaco, a 110 million ha ecoregion extending into Argentina, Bolivia, and Paraguay, with about 8 million ha of deforestation in 2000–2012. We used panel regressions at the district level to quantify the role of soybean expansion in driving these forest losses using a wide range of environmental and socio-economic control variables. Our models suggest that soybean production was a direct driver of deforestation in the Argentine Chaco only (0.08 ha new soybean area per ha forest lost), whereas cattle ranching was significantly associated with deforestation in all three countries (0.02 additional cattle per hectare forest loss). However, our models also suggested Argentine soybean cultivation may indirectly be linked to deforestation in the Bolivian and Paraguayan Chaco. We furthermore found substantial time-delayed effects in the relationship of soybean expansion in Argentina and Paraguay (i.e., soybean expansion in one year resulted in deforestation several years later) and deforestation in the Chaco, further suggesting that possible displacement effects within and between Chaco countries may at least partly drive forest loss. Altogether, our study showed that deforestation in the Chaco appears to be mainly driven by the globally surging demand for soybean, although regionally other proximate drivers are sometimes important. Steering agricultural production in the Chaco and other tropical dry forests onto sustainable pathways will thus require policies that consider these scale effects and that account for the regional variation in deforestation drivers within and across countries.     

A first approach to study the mobility and behavior of lead in hypersaline salt marsh sediments: Diffusive and advective fluxes,geochemical partitioning and Pb isotopes

A geochemical study of interstitial water and solid phase sediment using bulk concentration and geochemical partitioning was undertaken in vertical sediment profiles to trace diagenetic processes of lead (Pb) in hypersaline salt marsh sediments. In addition, we measured the stable isotopic composition of Pb in order to distinguish its input sources. Concentrations of Pb increased from low or background values in the bottommost layer (< 60 cm depth), followed by fluctuations in the middle layer (20–60 cm) and peak values in the subsurface layer (3–5 cm). Pb associated to reactive fractions (e.g. OM, Fe–Mn oxyhydroxides and carbonates) accounted for 60% of that initially deposited. Stable Pb isotope data (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁸Pb) suggested that most of the Pb in the upper sediments (1.204 ± 0.002 and 2.469 ± 0.007) is still derived from the leaded gasoline combustion (1.201 ± 0.006 and 2.475 ± 0.005). Profile of dissolved Pb was related to those for ammonium, phosphates and dissolve Fe and Mn, which reveals the influence of the diagenetic reactions on the Pb behavior. OM, Fe–Mn oxyhydroxides and the sulfide minerals play a significant role for mobilizing and trapping the Pb. Metal mobilization was calculated considering an advective–diffusive system. The advective process constitutes the dominant mechanism of Pb mobilization. A low diffusive outflux with respect to the Pb mobilization rate suggested that most of the released Pb is retained in the sediments. Authigenic oxides precipitated at the oxic–suboxic layers (0–4 cm depth) and authigenic sulfide minerals formed Pb in the anoxic layers (7–20 cm depth) constituting the main scavengers for Pb that is diagenetically released. This retention has significant environmental implications because it reduces the availability and toxicity of Pb to biota, including humans.     

南海夏季风爆发早晚的经向环流异常的机理研究

南海夏季风爆发与东亚地区的局地经向环流密切相关.本文利用线性局地经向环流诊断模式,定量诊断分析了1979~2003年5月1~15日的局地经向环流及其在夏季风爆发早晚年的差异,分析找出了在该关键时段对经向环流异常有正贡献的主要因子,从而确立影响季风爆发的相应天气过程及贡献机制.结果表明,在季风爆发早年期间,局地经向环流异常呈现为"Hadley环流"形态:上升运动(下沉运动)影响南海中北部(江淮地区),低空非地转南风(北风)影响南海中南部(华南和江南地区).季风爆发晚年的情况则与季风爆发早年相反.对造成经向环流异常的各个因子进行定量分析发现,经向分布不均匀的潜热加热的贡献作用最大,其次是温度平流和西风动量输送过程,与越赤道气流有关的边界效应则对南海中南部的低空南风有一定贡献.相应的天气学分析表明,季风爆发偏早年的副热带高空急流强度偏强且位置偏南,其动量输送过程导致对流层上层出现非地转南风、急流轴南侧(北侧)的华南(华北)地区出现高空辐散(辐合)和低层辐合上升(辐散下沉).与此同时,中纬度西风带扰动的南下和副热带高压脊从南海地区的撤出,中低层温度平流导致华中地区冷却和南海中北部增暖,进一步加强低纬地区上升、中纬地区下沉的经向环流异常.华南地区异常的非地转北风与南海中南部异常的非地转南风,显著加强了南海中北部的低空水汽辐合和对流潜热释放,从而激发出强烈上升运动.由此可见,中低纬天气系统配置能有效调节中国东部及南海地区的潜热加热和冷暖平流的南北分布,从而引起与季风爆发对应的局地经向环流的显著变化.