重度石漠化区不同土地利用方式下土壤养分特征

本文以云南省蒙自市西北勒乡碧色寨村石漠化土地为研究对象,基于主成分分析法（PCA）研究岩溶石漠化区不同土地利用方式下的土壤养分特征。结果表明:（1）研究区土壤各养分指标变异系数介于0.14~1.76,不同土地利用方式下,土壤养分状况有较大差异;（2）研究区土壤12项养分指标可归结为3个主成分,所提供的信息占全部信息的90.69%,其中PC1主要包含了全磷、有效磷、速效钾和有效锰,PC2主要综合了有机碳、全氮、全钙和有效锌,有效铁对PC3具有较大的贡献。（3）对不同用地类型土壤养分的主成分得分进行排序,由大到小依次为火龙果地>林地>封育草地>玉米地,表明植树造林及火龙果种植等方式能有效改善石漠化区的土壤养分状况。建议对样区的石漠化治理应以封山育土为前提,以生态恢复为目的,通过种植火龙果与修复林地改善样区土壤状况,逐步形成生态环境与社会经济协调发展的石漠化综合治理体系。      

西南地区2001-2014年植被变化时空格局

时序植被动态变化研究一直是全球变化研究的热点之一,对地区生态治理有重要意义。基于西南地区2001至 2014年的MODIS植被指数数据集以及DEM数据和土地利用数据,进行季节合成植被指数（SINDVI）的趋势模拟、空间统计和相关分析,探讨西南地区植被变化趋势和空间分异特征,研究结果表明:（1）74.52%的区域SINDVI变化不显著,显著改善的区域占22.07%,而显著退化的区域占3.41%,改善面积远远大于退化面积。（2）从地形因子结果来看,中低海拔地区和缓坡地区植被变化趋势最明显,海拔3 500 m以下植被变化趋势比海拔3 500 m以上明显。随着坡度的增加,改善趋势和退化趋势都在变小。（3）从土地利用分析结果来看,SINDVI变化趋势在人工表面最明显,改善和退化趋势都相对较大。（4）受人类活动的影响,人工表面和裸地的增多、林地的减少是植被呈退化趋势的主要原因。      

Statistical analyses of Global U-Pb Database 2017

The method of obtaining zircon samples affects estimation of the global U-Pb age distribution.Researchers typically collect zircons via convenience sampling and cluster sampling.When using these techniques,weight adjustments proportional to the areas of the sampled regions improve upon unweighted estimates.Here,grid-area and modern sediment methods are used to weight the samples from a new database of 418,967 U-Pb ages.Preliminary tests involve two age models.Model-1 uses the most precise U-Pb ages as the best ages.Model-2 uses the~(206)Pb/~(238)U age as the best age if it is less than a1000 Ma cutoff,otherwise it uses the~(207)Pb/~(206)Pb age as the best age.A correlation analysis between the Model-1 and Model-2 ages indicates nearly identical distributions for both models.However,after applying acceptance criteria to include only the most precise analyses with minimal discordance,a histogram of the rejected samples shows excessive rejection of the Model-2 analyses around the1000 Ma cutoff point.Because of the excessive rejection rate for Model-2,we select Model-1 as the preferred model.After eliminating all rejected samples,the remaining analyses use only Model-1 ages for five rock-type subsets of the database:igneous,meta-igneous,sedimentary,meta-sedimentary,and modern sediments.Next,time-series plots,cross-correlation analyses,and spectral analyses determine the degree of alignment among the time-series and their periodicity.For all rock types,the U-Pb age distributions are similar for ages older than 500 Ma,but align poorly for ages younger than 500 Ma.The similarities(500 Ma)and differences(500 Ma)highlight how reductionism from a detailed database enhances understanding of time-dependent sequences,such as erosion,detrital transport mechanisms,lithification,and metamorphism.Time-series analyses and spectral analyses of the age distributions predominantly indicate a synchronous period-tripling sequence of~91-Myr,~273-Myr,and~819-Myr among the various rock types.     

Interstratified illite-smectite phases: formation mechanisms and practical applications

Secondary micas after smectite, including mix illite-smectite phases, can form in sediments by three mechanisms, each being specific to particular environments. As the process develops, the newly formed phases undergo structure ordering. Two mechanisms involve transformation of 2:1 mixed-layer structures, and the third is the growth of screw dislocations, with formation of ordered mix phases having a Reichweite parameter of R = 1 or R = 2. We propose methods for identifying such phases when they are present in small amounts or when their XRD patterns lack well-pronounced superperiodic reflections, as well as mathematical formalism for illitization modeling. The theoretical issues are illustrated with field examples, and the illitization mechanisms are discussed in terms of their possible practical applications.     

Probabilistic stability analyses of undrained slopes by 3D random fields and finite element methods

A long slope consisting of spatially random soils is a common geographical feature. This paper examined the necessity of three-dimensional(3 D) analysis when dealing with slope with full randomness in soil properties. Although 3 D random finite element analysis can well reflect the spatial variability of soil properties, it is often time-consuming for probabilistic stability analysis. For this reason, we also examined the least advantageous(or most pessimistic) cross-section of the studied slope. The concept of"most pessimistic" refers to the minimal cross-sectional average of undrained shear strength. The selection of the most pessimistic section is achievable by simulating the undrained shear strength as a 3 D random field. Random finite element analysis results suggest that two-dimensional(2 D) plane strain analysis based the most pessimistic cross-section generally provides a more conservative result than the corresponding full 3 D analysis. The level of conservativeness is around 15% on average. This result may have engineering implications for slope design where computationally tractable 2 D analyses based on the procedure proposed in this study could ensure conservative results.     

Structural stability of gravity dams: a progressive assessment considering uncertainties in shear strength parameters

Structural sliding stability of gravity dams is generally quantified using deterministic factor of safety, FS_det. Large FS_det (e.g. 3 in normal condition), are used in existing guidelines to guard against material and load uncertainties. Some guidelines allow an arbitrary reduction in FS_det (e.g. 2) when the knowledge in strength parameters increases from material test data. Yet, those reduced FS_det are not based on a rational consideration of uncertainties. Propagation of uncertainties could be done using probabilistic analyses, such as Monte-Carlo simulations (MC) which are complex and challenging for practical use. There is thus a need to develop simplified reliability based safety assessment procedures that could rationalise the adjustment of FS_det. This paper presents a progressive analysis methodology using four safety evaluation formats of increasing complexity: (i) deterministic, (ii) semi-probabilistic (partial coefficient), (iii) reliability based Adjustable Factor of Safety (AFS), and (iv) probabilistic. Comprehensive comparisons are made for the sliding safety evaluation of a 80 m gravity dam. Results are presented in terms of sliding factors of safety, allowable water levels, and demand/capacity ratios. It is shown that the AFS formulation, using direct integration, is simple and practical to use in complement to existing dam safety guidelines before undertaking MC simulations.     

The Swedish Geotechnical Society’s methodology for risk management: a tool for engineers in their everyday work

The Swedish Geotechnical Society has adopted a general methodology for risk management in geotechnical engineering projects to reduce the costs related to negative outcomes of geotechnical risks. This technical note highlights the main features of the methodology and strives to inspire the international geotechnical community to apply sensible risk management methods. In the authors’ opinion, a successful geotechnical risk management needs to be structured, be tailored to the project, and permeate the engineers’ everyday work. Then, sufficient quality can be achieved in the project with larger probability.     

Rainfall flood hazard at nuclear power plants in India

Flood hazard evaluation is an important input for Nuclear Power Plants external events safety studies. In the present study, flood hazard at various nuclear sites in India due to rainfall has been evaluated. Hazard estimation is a statistical procedure by which rainfall intensity versus occurrence frequency is estimated from historical records of rainfall data and extrapolated with asymptotic extreme value distribution. Rainfall data needed for flood hazard assessment are daily annual maximum rainfall (24?h data). The observed data points have been fitted using Gumbel, power law and exponential distribution, and return period has been estimated. To study the stationarity of rainfall data, a moving window estimate of the parameters has been performed. The rainfall pattern is stationary in both coastal and inland regions over the period of observation. The coastal regions show intense rainfall and higher variability than inland regions. Based on the plant layout, catchment area and drainage capacity, the prototype fast breeder reactor (PFBR) site is unlikely to be flooded.     

Landfill site selection based on reliability concepts using the DRASTIC method and AHP integrated with GIS – a case study of Bengaluru city,India

The selection of landfill sites for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal involves consideration of geological, hydrological and environmental parameters which exhibit large spatial variability. Therefore, it is necessary to define, to what extent the chosen sites are reliable such that the probability of environmental pollution and health risks to population is minimal. In the present study, groundwater vulnerability to contamination has been assessed using the standard DRASTIC method. The results showed that the study region has 9.45% of very less, 32.94% of less, 25.47% of moderate, 22.79% of high and 9.35% of very high vulnerable zones. The study also revealed that none of the landfills are located in safe zones. This suggests that it requires proper remedial measures to avoid environmental pollution. A landfill site selection process has been carried out using the Analytical Hierarchy Process integrated with Geographical Information System tools. The obtained results showed that only 3.59?km² (0.08%) of the total area is suitable for landfills. The reliability analysis of the site suitability revealed that landfills are located at unreliable locations where the probability of risk to environmental pollution is high. The presented approach assists decision-makers in selecting reliable locations for the safe disposal of MSW.     

Multi-factor sensitivity analysis on the stability of submarine hydrate-bearing slope

There are many factors affecting the instability of the submarine hydrate-bearing slope (SHBS), and the interaction with hydrate is very complicated. In this paper, the mechanical mechanism of the static liquefaction and instability of submarine slope caused by the dissociation of natural gas hydrate (NGH) resulting in the rapid increase of pore pressure of gas hydrate-bearing sediments (GHBS) and the decrease of effective stress are analyzed based on the time series and type of SHBS. Then, taking the typical submarine slope in the northern South China Sea as an example, four important factors affecting the stability of SHBS are selected, such as the degree of hydrate dissociation, the depth of hydrate burial, the thickness of hydrate, and the depth of seawater. According to the principle of orthogonal method, 25 orthogonal test schemes with 4 factors and 5 levels are designed and the safety factors of submarine slope stability of each scheme are calculated by using the strength reduction finite element method. By means of the orthogonal design range analysis and the variance analysis, sensitivity of influential factors on stability of SHBS are obtained. The results show that the degree of hydrate dissociation is the most sensitive, followed by hydrate burial depth, the thickness of hydrate and the depth of seawater. Finally, the concept of gas hydrate critical burial depth is put forward according to the influence law of gas hydrate burial depth, and the numerical simulation for specific submarine slope is carried out, which indicates the existence of critical burial depth.