Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.     

Seasonal evaluation of rainfall estimation by four cumulus parameterization schemes and their sensitivity analysis

Sustainable water resources management require scientifically sound information on precipitation, as it plays a key role in hydrological responses in a catchment. In recent years, mesoscale weather models in conjunction with hydrological models have gained great attention as they can provide high‐resolution downscaled weather variables. Many cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) have been developed and incorporated into three‐dimensional Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model 5 (MM5). This study has performed a comprehensive evaluation of four CPSs (the Anthes–Kuo, Grell, Betts–Miller and Kain–Fritsch93 schemes) to identify how their inclusion influences the mesoscale model's precipitation estimation capabilities. The study has also compared these four CPSs in terms of variability in rainfall estimation at various horizontal and vertical levels. For this purpose, the MM5 was nested down to resolution of 81 km for Domain 1 (domain span 21 × 81 km) and 3 km for Domain 4 (domain span 16 × 3 km), respectively, with vertical resolutions at 23, 40 and 53 vertical levels. The study was carried out at the Brue catchment in Southwest England using both the ERA‐40 reanalysis data and the land‐based observation data. The performances of four CPs were evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the amount of cumulative rainfall in 4 months in 1995 representing the four seasonal months, namely, January (winter), March (spring), July (summer) and October (autumn). It is observed that the Anthes–Kuo scheme has produced inferior precipitation values during spring and autumn seasons while simulations during winter and summer were consistently good. The Betts–Miller scheme has produced some reasonable results, particularly at the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) during winter and summer. The KF2 scheme was the best scheme for the larger‐scale (81 km grid size) domain during winter season at both 23 and 53 vertical levels. This scheme tended to underestimate rainfall for other seasons including the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) in the mesoscale. The Grell scheme was the best scheme in simulating rainfall rates, and was found to be superior to other three schemes with consistently better results in all four seasons and in different domain scales. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Primary cracking of kerogens. Experimenting and modelling C1, C2–C5, C6–C15 and C15+ classes of hydrocarbons formed

Mathematical models of hydrocarbon formation can be used to simulate the natural evolution of different types of organic matter and to make an overall calculation of the amounts of oil and/or gas produced during this evolution. However, such models do not provide any information on the composition of the hydrocarbons formed or on how they evolve during catagenesis.From the kinetic standpoint, the composition of the hydrocarbons formed can be considered to result from the effect of “primary cracking” reactions having a direct effect on kerogen during its evolution as well as from the effect of “secondary cracking” acting on the hydrocarbons formed.This report gives experimental results concerning the “primary cracking” of Types II and III kerogens and their modelling. For this, the hydrocarbons produced have been grouped into four classes (C₁, C₂–C₅, C₆–C₁₅ and C₁₅₊). Experimental data corresponding to these different classes were obtained by the pyrolysis of kerogens with temperature programming of 4°C/min with continuous analysis, during heating, of the amount of hydrocarbons corresponding to each of these classes.The kinetic parameters of the model were optimized on the basis of the results obtained. This model represents the first step in the creation of a more sophisticated mathematical model to be capable of simulating the formation of different hydrocarbon classes during the thermal history of sediments. The second step being the adjustment of the kinetic parameters of “secondary cracking”.     

拟合法15°波动方程有限差分串联偏移

本文把最佳拟合算法（三点和五点差分格式）及串联偏移方法应用在15°波动方程偏移中。由于拟合法的差分因子随着采样间隔、步长、速度等参数的变化而变化,因此与原有的波动方程差分偏移法相比,串联偏移方法能有效的使大倾角归位,克服频散,速度及步长可以灵活变化,运算效率高等优点。     

TBP－（X－5）反相色谱分离m－NPF分光光度法测定铀

本文研究了以磷酸三丁酯为固定相，大孔聚乙烯苯（Ｘ－５型）为担体的浸渍树脂、垂直型反相色谱柱，对铀分离富集的基本性能，以及铀（Ⅳ）－间硝基苯基萤光酮（ｍ－ＮＰＦ）一氨三乙酸（ＮＴＡ）－吐温－８０显色体系的反应条件，提出了ＴＢＰ（Ｘ－５）分离，ｍ－ＮＰＦ－ＮＴＡ－吐温－８０光度法测定铀，经标准样品验证，结果满意。     

镉—5—Br—PADAP—溴化十六烷基三甲基铵—十八醇聚氧乙烯(20)醚显色体系的研究及应用

本文研究了镉-5-Br-PADAP-溴化十六烷基三甲基铵-peregalo显色体系的光谱特征,显色条件,络合物的组成、干扰及其消除。实验证明该法灵敏度高,ε=1.3×10~5l·mol~(-1)·cm~(-1)。选择性较好,显色酸度范围较宽pH=8.0-9.5,络合物最大吸收波长为560nm,镉在0-10μg/25ml的含量范围内服从比尔定律。经标准水样、工业废水及生活用水验证,不经分离可测定水中PPb级的微量镉。     

MM5中尺度非静力模式对云南省降水预报检验

根据MM5／V3中尺度非静力模式数值预报结果，检验了该模式在云南2001年汛期（6－10月）的降水预报效果。结果表明，MM5模式降水预报对云南大部分地区的小雨有较高的TS评分，对于全省性大雨过程，MM5模式24小时降水预报的TS评分高于同期预报员的主观预报，但对暴雨及以上量级的降水预报，模式结果不太理想。     

中尺度数值模式(MM5V3)在沈阳区域气象中心的试用

简单介绍了沈阳区域气象中心在微机上调试和试用中尺度数值模式MM5V3的情况，MM5V3在前、后处理上使用Fortran90编程，与MM5V2有一定差别，利用T106L19资料和常规探空报形成经、纬网格的初值，预处理场和侧边界，代入模式前处理系统中，模式运行完毕后，预报产品直接进入MICAPS、Vis5d、Grads系统，进行图形显示，在2000年汛期试用中发现，MM5V3对东北地区的强降水过程有一定的预报能力，预报评分表明，MM5V3的降水预报结果和MM5V2互有优劣，总体来看，MM5V3的预报质量略高于MM5V2。     

Processing of oxidised nitrogen compounds by passage through winter-time orographic cloud

Four case studies are described, from a three-site field experiment in October/November 1991 using the Great Dun Fell flow-through reactor hill cap cloud in rural Northern England. Measurements of total odd-nitrogen nitrogen oxides (NO _y ) made on either side of the hill, before and after the air flowed through the cloud, showed that 10 to 50% of the NO _y , called NO _z , was neither NO nor NO₂. This NO _z failed to exhibit a diurnal variation and was often higher after passage through cloud than before. No evidence of conversion of NO _z to NO₃ ^- in cloud was found. A simple box model of gas-phase chemistry in air before it reached the cloud, including scavenging of NO₃ and N₂O₅ by aerosol of surface area proportional to the NO₂ mixing ratio, shows that NO₃ and N₂O₅ may build up in the boundary layer by night only if stable stratification insulates the air from emissions of NO. This may explain the lack of evidence for N₂O₅ forming NO₃ ^- in cloud under well-mixed conditions in 1991, in contrast with observations under stably stratified conditions during previous experiments when evidence of N₂O₅ was found. Inside the cloud, some variations in the calculated total atmospheric loading of HNO₂ and the cloud liquid water content were related to each other. Also, indications of conversion of NO _x to NO _z were found. To explain these observations, scavenging of NO _x and HNO₂ by cloud droplets and/or aqueous-phase oxidation of NO₂ ^- by nitrate radicals are considered. When cloud acidity was being produced by aqueous-phase oxidation of NO _x or SO₂, NO₃ ^- which had entered the cloud as aerosol particles was liberated as HNO₃ vapour. When no aqueous-phase production of acidity was occurring, the reverse, conversion of scavenged HNO₃ to particulate NO₃ ^-, was observed.