An investigation of analysis of variance as a tool for exploring regional differences in strong ground motions

The statistical technique known as analysis of variance is applied to a large set of European strong-motion data to investigate whether strong ground motions show a regional dependence. This question is important when selecting strong-motion records for the derivation of ground motion prediction equations and also when choosing strong-motion records from one geographical region for design purposes in another. Five regions with much strong-motion data (the Caucasus region, central Italy, Friuli, Greece and south Iceland) are investigated here. For the magnitude and distance range where there are overlapping data from the five areas (2.50 M_s 5.50, 0 d 35 km) and consequently analysis of variance can be performed, there is little evidence for a regional dependence of ground motions. There is a lack of data from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes (M_s > 5.5) so analysis of variance cannot be performed there. Since there is uncertainty regarding scaling ground motions from small to large magnitudes whether ground motions from large earthquakes are significantly different in different parts of Europe is not known. Analysis of variance has the ability to complement other techniques for the assessment of regional dependence of ground motions.     

Models of sub-grid variability in numerical simulations of solute transport in heterogeneous porous formations: three-dimensional flow and effect of pore-scale dispersion

Modeling transport of contaminants in the earths subsurface relies on numerical solutions over grids with blocks larger than Darcys scale. The hydraulic conductivity is homogenized over the grid blocks and the plumes spreading is reduced as a consequence of the wiped-out variability. To compensate for this loss Rubin et al. (1999) proposed to augment mixing by block-effective dispersion coefficients, and Rubin et al. (2003) showed, by means of two dimensional simulations, how this concept can be applied in practice. In this paper, we present new solutions of the block-effective dispersion tensor for an axisymmetric exponential covariance model. In addition, we discuss the influence of pore-scale dispersion in both two- and three-dimensional applications.     

Eulerian spatial moments for solute transport in three-dimensional heterogeneous,dual-permeability media

A Eulerian analytical method is developed for nonreactive solute transport in heterogeneous, dual-permeability media where the hydraulic conductivities in fracture and matrix domains are both assumed to be stochastic processes. The analytical solution for the mean concentration is given explicitly in Fourier and Laplace transforms. Instead of using the fast fourier transform method to numerically invert the solution to real space (Hu et al., 2002), we apply the general relationship between spatial moments and concentration (Naff, 1990; Hu et al., 1997) to obtain the analytical solutions for the spatial moments up to the second for a pulse input of the solute. Owing to its accuracy and efficiency, the analytical method can be used to check the semi-analytical and Monte Carlo numerical methods before they are applied to more complicated studies. The analytical method can be also used during screening studies to identify the most significant transport parameters for further analysis. In this study, the analytical results have been compared with those obtained from the semi-analytical method (Hu et al., 2002) and the comparison shows that the semi-analytical method is robust. It is clearly shown from the analytical solution that the three factors, local dispersion, conductivity variation in each domain and velocity convection flow difference in the two domains, play different roles on the solute plume spreading in longitudinal and transverse directions. The calculation results also indicate that when the log-conductivity variance in matrix is 10 times less than its counterpart in fractures, it will hardly influence the solute transport, whether the conductivity field is matrix is treated as a homogeneous or random field.     

Spatial statistics of clustered data

Modern spatial statistics techniques are widely used to make predictions for natural processes that are continuously distributed over some convex domain. Implementation of these techniques often relies on the adequate estimation of certain spatial correlation functions such as the covariance and the variogram from the data sets available. This work studies the practical estimation of such spatial correlation functions in the case of clustered data. The coefficient of variation of the dimensionless spatial density of the point pattern of sample locations is suggested as a useful metric for degree of clusteredness of the clustered data set. We show that the common variogram estimator becomes increasingly unreliable with increasing coefficient of variation of the dimensionless spatial density of the point pattern of sample locations. Moreover, we present a modified form of the variogram estimator that incorporates declustering weights, and propose a scheme for estimating the declustering weights based on zones of proximity. Finally, insight is gained in terms of a numerical application of the common and modified methods on piezometric head data collected over an irregular network.Acknowledgments. This work has been supported by grants from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (P42 ES05948-02), the Army Research Office (DAAG55-98-1-0289), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (60-00RFQ041). Some of the calculations conducted in support of this work were done on the SGI Origin 2400 at the North Carolina Supercomputing Center, RTP, NC.     

Pattern classification using tabu search to identify the spatial distribution of groundwater pumping

Pattern classification and Tabu Search are integrated to optimize the zonation and associated average groundwater pumping rates. A simulated problem analogous to the Choushui Creek Alluvial in Janghauh county of Taiwan is used to examine the proposed method. Three problems are tested including (1) optimizing zonation patterns with known pumping rates and number of zones, (2) optimizing pumping rates and zonation patterns with a predetermined number of zones, and (3) optimizing all pumping rates, number of zones, and zonation. The results indicate that the proposed method successfully identifies spatial patterns of groundwater pumping for all three cases. However, some initial zonations result only in local optimums. Thus, using more than one initial zonation to increase search diversification is recommended. Application to different problems such as the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity values and area weighting of rainfall stations, is encouraged.

---

Resumen El patrón de clasificación y la búsqueda tabú están integrados para optimizar la zonificación y las tasas promedio de bombeo de aguas subterráneas asociadas. Se ha utilizado un área diseñada análoga al arroyo aluvial Choushui en la provincia Janghauh en Taiwan para examinar el método propuesto. Se han probado tres problemas que incluyen (1) la zonificación únicamente con las tasas de bombeo y número de zonas dadas, (2) tasa de bombeo y zonificación con un número predeterminado de zonas, y (3) todas las tasa de bombeo, número de zonas y zonificaciones. Los resultados indican que el método propuesto identifica exitosamente los patrones espaciales de bombeo de las aguas subterráneas en los tres casos. Sin embargo, Algunas zonificaciones iniciales solamente resultan en óptimos locales. Por esta razón se recomienda utilizar más de una zonificación inicial para incrementar la diversificación de la búsqueda. Se sugiere la aplicación a problemas diferentes tales como la distribución espacial de conductividades hidraúlicas y la ponderación de áreas de estaciones de monitoreo de precipitación.

---

Résumé La classification des patrons et la recherche Tabu sont intégrés pour optimiser la zonation et la moyenne associée du taux de pompage de leau souterraine. Une région analogue à lalluvion du ruisseau Choushui de la région Janghauh en Taiwan a été recrée afin dexaminer la méthode proposée. Trois problèmes sont évalués, incluant loptimisation de (1) la zonation avec seulement un taux de pompage et un nombre de zones donnés, (2) le taux de pompage et la zonation avec un nombre prédéterminé de zones, et (3) tous les taux de pompage, nombre de zones et la zonation. Les résultats indiquent que la méthode proposée identifie avec succès les patrons de pompage de leau souterraine dans les trois cas. Toutefois, certaines zonations initiales résultent seulement en optimums locaux. Par conséquent, lutilisation de plus dune zonation initiale afin daugmenter la diversification de la recherche est recommandée. Lutilisation de la méthode est suggérée pour la résolution de différents problèmes tels que la distribution spatiale de la conductivité hydraulique et la pondération des stations de mesure de précipitations.

     

空间数据库引擎SDE的研究

利用大型关系数据库管理海量的GIS数据,由于空间数据的不定长,造成存储效率低下,此外,现有的SQL并不支持空间数据库检索,需要解决空间数据和DBMS之间数据的存储、读取、检索、管理等基本功能。探讨了空间数据库引擎(SDE)的概念、实质和特点,并对Arc SDE进行了研究,对MAPGIS7.0中的SDE做了简短描述。     

基于SQL Server Spatial的空间数据的组织与查询

论述了SQL Server Spatial技术理论,探讨了空间数据导入、索引的创建以及空间数据的查询方法。并以3维激光扫描获取的点云数据为例,采用C#连接SQL Server数据库,对点云数据进行了组织及查询,并在MapOb-ject组件下进行可视化。试验证明,建立空间索引后点云数据的检索效率较高。     

中国原油进口风险度以及对国内不同区域的影响分析

1993年中国开始从原油输出国变为原油输入国,到2010年,中国的原油进口依赖度高达53%。原油进口来源国的社会经济稳定性、原油运输线路的安全性影响到中国原油进口的安全性。本文根据ITIRI的综合国际贸易投资风险指数和原油运输线路的安全性,设计了中国从其主要原油进口来源国进口原油的风险指数。然后分析了中国各省级行政区对原油进口消费的依赖度,中国六个大区石化工业和八个石油化工基地对进口原油的依赖程度。从而分析了它们对进口原油风险的敏感度。本研究的结论是:第一,中国重要的原油进口来源国比较集中,且集中在社会经济不十分稳定的国家。第二,原油进口风险对沿海地区经济的影响远高于对内陆地区的影响。第三,沪宁杭、琼粤闽和长江中游石化基地是受原油进口风险影响最大的三个基地。根据这些结论,本文提出两方面建议:第一,建议中国原油进口来源与运输方式尽量多元化,以规避风险。第二,中国原油战略储备基地应考虑对原油进口风险敏感度大的地区。     

基于QTM的海平面上升分析与模拟

针对海平面上升影响范围分析与模拟这一国际前沿问题,通过研究基于球面四元三角网(QTM)的关键技术问题,包括复杂拓扑关系计算、LOD剖分、球面水淹分析、基于QTM的多分辨率的DEM数据组织方法和分析精度的相关性评定等,以.Net和Direct3D为开发工具,设计开发了基于QTM的海平面上升影响范围评估模型。该研究结果可为全球海平面上升影响的防灾减灾决策提供有效支撑,并推动了球面数据模型和球面格网拓扑分析的理论成果在全球变化预测相关领域的应用进展。     

京津冀都市区经济分布演化及作用机制模拟研究

利用kernel密度估计方法考察了京津冀都市区1995-2007年经济分布演化过程,在此基础上,引入经济增长分布模拟模型进一步模拟研究了其经济增长驱动力的作用效应。研究发现:①京津冀都市区经济增长分布形态经历了"双峰状"→"单峰状"→"双峰状"的演化过程。②资本深化、技术效率、技术进步和空间依赖效应对京津冀都市区经济增长起显著作用。③资本深化和技术效率对京津冀都市区经济增长分布演化起重要作用,而技术进步、空间外溢效应和误差分布效应则没有显著的作用。④资本深化分布的变化和技术效率综合作用效应的变化是影响京津冀都市区经济分布演化的驱动力,并通过资本深化的分布效应和技术效率的综合作用效应这两个渠道对其经济分布演化产生影响。⑤对京津冀都市区经济增长起作用的因素不一定能够影响到其经济分布的演化,基于分解技术的经济增长分布模拟模型,并利用理论分布和实际分布差异性的统计检验可以识别真正影响其经济分布演化的因素及其作用渠道。