Travel time residuals in southeastern Europe

The Pn travel time relative residuals, in respect to a crustal model of the Aegean area, have been determined for 103 permanent seismological stations in southeastern Europe, western Turkey and the Middle East. The values of these residuals are considered to depend mainly on the crustal thickness beneath the seismological stations. Based on these values seven regions with different crustal thickness, varying between 31 Km and 42 Km, have been defined. The crust in these regions is continental. A region with very high negative residuals has been defined in the Middle East (Egypt, Israel, Lebanon). These negative residuals are attributed to different crustal structure of the eastern Mediterranean (oceanic crust with an extra thick sedimentary layer) and not the crustal thickness at the station sites.Independently from the interpretation, these Pn residuals can be used successfully to considerably improve (up to 2 Km) the determination of the earthquake foci locations.     

闽南区域地壳稳定性分区及其特征

通过一系列区域地壳稳定性背景资料的分析，以地壳结构、深断裂、活动断裂、第四纪升降速率、大地热流值、布格异常梯度、地壳应变能量、地震最大震级、基本烈度等综合指标，将闽南区域的地壳稳定性，自西而东划分为稳定区、基本稳定区和次稳定区。     

The "Little Ice Age" and its Geomorphological Consequences in Mediterranean Europe

Alpine glacier advances in the "Little Ice Age" took place in the decades around 1320, 1600, 1700 and 1810. They were the outcome of snowier winters and cooler summers than those of the twentieth century. Documentary records from Crete in particular, and also from Italy, southern France and southeast Spain point to a greater frequency in Mediterranean Europe's mountainous regions of severe floods, droughts and frosts at times of "Little Ice Age" Alpine glacier advances. Deluges, when more than 200 mm of rain fall within 24 hours, are most frequent on mountainous areas near the coast. An instance is given of the geomorphological consequences of a great deluge which struck the Tech valley in the eastern Pyrenees on 17 October 1940. An increased frequency of deluges, probably at times when Alpine glaciers were advancing in the "Little Ice Age" and earlier in the Holocene, in areas known to be tectonically unstable and underlain by soft sediments, could better explain the occurrence of fluvial terraces in Mediterranean Europe sometimes known as the "younger fill", than soil erosion resulting from deforestation.     

A crustal seismic velocity model for the UK, Ireland and surrounding seas

A regional model of the 3-D variation in seismic P -wave velocity structure in the crust of NW Europe has been compiled from wide-angle reflection/refraction profiles. Along each 2-D profile a velocity–depth function has been digitised at 5 km intervals. These 1-D velocity functions were mapped into three dimensions using ordinary kriging with weights determined to minimise the difference between digitised and interpolated values. An analysis of variograms of the digitised data suggested a radial isotropic weighting scheme was most appropriate. Horizontal dimensions of the model cells are optimised at 40 × 40 km and the vertical dimension at 1 km. The resulting model provides a higher resolution image of the 3-D variation in seismic velocity structure of the UK, Ireland and surrounding areas than existing models. The construction of the model through kriging allows the uncertainty in the velocity structure to be assessed. This uncertainty indicates the high density of data required to confidently interpolate the crustal velocity structure, and shows that for this region the velocity is poorly constrained for large areas away from the input data.     

Mapping landslide susceptibility from small datasets: A case study in the Pays de Herve (E Belgium)

A landslide susceptibility map is proposed for the Pays de Herve (E Belgium), where large landslides affect Cretaceous clay outcrop areas. Based on a Bayesian approach, this GIS-supported probabilistic map identifies the areas most susceptible to deep landslides. The database is comprised of the source areas of ten pre-existing landslides (i.e. a sample of 154 grid cells) and of six environmental data layers, namely lithology, proximity to active faults, slope angle and aspect, elevation and distance to the nearest valley-floor. A 30-m-resolution DEM from the Belgian National Geographical Institute is used for the analysis. Owing to the small size of the sample, a special cross-validation procedure of the susceptibility map is performed, which uses in an iterative way each of the landslides to test the predictive power of the map derived from the other landslides. Four different sets of variables are used to produce four susceptibility maps, whose prediction curves are compared. While the prediction rates associated with the models not involving the “proximity to active fault” criterion are comparable to those of the models considering this variable, strong weaknesses inherent in the fault data on which the latter rely suggest that the final susceptibility map should be based on a model that excludes any reference to fault. This highlights the difference between a triggering factor and determining factors, and in the same time broadens the scope of the produced map. A single reactivated slide is also used to test the possibility of predicting future reactivation of existing landslides in the area. Finally, the need for geomorphological control over the mathematical treatment is underlined in order to obtain realistic prediction maps.     

ISLAND SOJOURNS

ABSTRACT. Islands have long held a central place in Western cultures' mythical geographies. They have been associated for centuries with heroic journeys and holy quests, imagined realms of magical transformations. Islands have also been sites of significant rites of passage, and they continue to perform this function in the modern secular world. Today, popular islomania is expressed in the frequency of seasonal sojourning on European and American archipelagos. No longer destinations of permanent residence, islands now provide access to a sense of temporal and spatial rootedness that is no longer available on mainlands. They loom large on the mental maps even of those who rarely, if ever, visit them.     

SEDIMENT BUDGETS AND RATES OF SEDIMENT TRANSFER ACROSS COLD ENVIRONMENTS IN EUROPE: A COMMENTARY

The sediment mass balance equation is the fundamental concept which underpins most sediment budget studies in cold climate environments. In these environments the interchange between water and ice plays a predominant geomorphological role. Such environments show a large variety of geomorphic processes which are conditioned by both contemporary environmental conditions but also the legacy of past events. In the northern Europe/Arctic fringe these cold regions are distributed in a fragmented fashion and are likely to be very sensitive to climate change scenarios. The significance of such changes for sediment transfer can only be established if we have good contemporary process understanding, the necessary tools to carefully monitor and model such changes, and can apply such methods at appropriate scales which integrate both sediment sources and sinks.     

Characteristics of seasonal and spatial variations of primary production over the southeastern Bering Sea shelf

In situ primary production data collected during 1978–1981 period and 1997–2000 period were combined to improve understanding of seasonal and spatial distribution of primary production in the southeastern Bering Sea. Mean daily primary production rates showed an apparent seasonal cycle with high rates in May and low rates in summer over the entire shelf of the southeastern Bering Sea except for oceanic region due to lack of data. There was also an increasing trend of primary production rates in the fall over the inner shelf and the middle shelf. There was a decreasing trend of primary production rates between late April and mid-May over the inner shelf while there was an abrupt increase between late April and mid-May over the middle shelf and the outer shelf. In the shelf break region, there was an increasing pattern in late May. These suggest that there was a gradual progression of the development of the spring phytoplankton bloom from the inner shelf toward the shelf break region. There was also a latitudinal variability of primary production rate over the middle shelf, probably due to either spatial variations of the seasonal advance and retreat of sea ice or horizontal advection of saline water in the bottom layer. Annual rates of primary production across the southeastern Bering Sea shelf were 121, 150, 145, 110, and 84 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ in the inner shelf, the middle shelf, the outer shelf, the shelf break, and oceanic region, respectively. High annual rates of primary production over the inner shelf can be attributed to continuous summer production based on regenerated nitrogen and/or a continuous supply of nitrogen at the inner front region, and to fall production. There were some possibilities of underestimation of annual primary production over the entire shelf due to lack of measurement in early spring and fall, which may be more apparent over the shelf break and oceanic region than the inner shelf, the middle, and the outer shelf. This study suggests that the response of primary production by climate change in the southeastern Bering Sea shelf can be misunderstood without proper temporal and seasonal measurement.     

For a Europe of flexible regions and not of region-states divided by ethnicity

Discussion of the future of Europe continues to be a marginal political issue, partly because of the resistance of states, on both the practical (bureaucratic) and conceptual levels, created by the government leaders and heads of state. In turn, the nation-states are challenged from within by independent and separatist movements that have laid bare the fundamental hypocrisy of rhetorical discussions of the principle regarding the self-determination of peoples; interfering with states (and their borders) has proven to be a taboo for Europe. The growing flexibility of the globalised economy should be paralleled by a growing flexibility in the conception of the division and political organisation of territory, but this is not the case. Further inflexibility stems from the socio-economic inequity that we accept in our daily lives as normal, in particular as regards inequality in the use and division of territory. Equality, or better egaliberté (equality and liberty), is a sufficiently dynamic and flexible concept to be taken as a point of reference in envisaging the society, Europe, and world of tomorrow. It is only through the concept of egaliberté that we can imagine a Europe based on relations between regions that are conceived and organised on multiple scales and not as region-nations conceived on the basis of ethnicity or in the name of supposed cultural homogeneity.     

Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.