Fuzzy neural network models for liquefaction prediction

Integrated fuzzy neural network models are developed for the assessment of liquefaction potential of a site. The models are trained with large databases of liquefaction case histories. A two-stage training algorithm is used to develop a fuzzy neural network model. In the preliminary training stage, the training case histories are used to determine initial network parameters. In the final training stage, the training case histories are processed one by one to develop membership functions for the network parameters. During the testing phase, input variables are described in linguistic terms such as ‘high’ and ‘low’. The prediction is made in terms of a liquefaction index representing the degree of liquefaction described in fuzzy terms such as ‘highly likely’, ‘likely’, or ‘unlikely’. The results from the model are compared with actual field observations and misclassified cases are identified. The models are found to have good predictive ability and are expected to be very useful for a preliminary evaluation of liquefaction potential of a site for which the input parameters are not well defined.     

Hydration and refractive indices of Holocene tephra glass in Hokkaido, Northern Japan

Refractive indices of incompletely hydrated tephra glasses vary widely. Thus, glass refractive index is not a practical indicator for identifying Holocene tephras. Hydration near the surface of tephra glass shards can be removed by either hydrofluoric acid treatment or annealing for 12 h at 400°C. The annealing procedure is a particularly reliable and simple way to dehydrate tephra glasses. Standard deviations (s) of refractive indices for glasses after 12 h annealing are small (s=0.0014–0.0018), in contrast with untreated glasses (s=0.0034–0.0405). The refractive indices of dehydrated tephra glasses are 0.006–0.014 lower than those of the untreated (hydrated) glasses. Using the 400°C 12-h annealing procedure, values for the refractive indices of eight Holocene tephras in Hokkaido were obtained. These refractive indices are useful indicators for identification and correlation of Holocene tephras.     

城市震害高危害小区的研究和GIS的实现技术

论述了在城市地震灾害中如何考虑诸方面因素来评价城市的灾害轻重分布情况。中建立坑危害小区分析模型，设想将城市划分等面积网格，给每个单元网格赋予灾害指数，以确定城市中受灾较为严重的区域，为求灾指挥提供决策信息。同时，将高危害小区的模型研究结果转化为计算机技术可以实现的GIS模型。该研究结果已应用于泰安市防震减灾示范研究项目中。     

Development of site-specific design ground motions in Western and Eastern North America

This paper presents results recently obtained for generating site-specific ground motions needed for design of critical facilities. The general approach followed in developing these ground motions using either deterministic or probabilistic criteria is specification of motions for rock outcrop or very firm soil conditions followed by adjustments for site-specific conditions. Central issues in this process include development of appropriate attenuation relations and their uncertainties, differences in expected motions between Western and Eastern North America, and incorporation of site-specific adjustments that maintain the same hazard level as the control motions, while incorporating uncertainties in local dynamic material properties. For tectonically active regions, such as the Western United States (WUS), sufficient strong motion data exist to constrain empirical attenuation relations for M up to about 7 and for distances greater than about 10–15 km. Motions for larger magnitudes and closer distances are largely driven by extrapolations of empirical relations and uncertainties need to be substantially increased for these cases.

For the Eastern United States (CEUS), due to the paucity of strong motion data for cratonic regions worldwide, estimation of strong ground motions for engineering design is based entirely on calibrated models. The models are usually calibrated and validated in the WUS where sufficient strong motion data are available and then recalibrated for applications to the CEUS. Recalibration generally entails revising parameters based on available CEUS ground motion data as well as indirect inferences through intensity observations. Known differences in model parameters such as crustal structure between WUS and CEUS are generally accommodated as well. These procedures are examined and discussed.     

Screening model for volatile pollutants in dual porosity soils

This paper develops mass fraction models for transport and fate of agricultural pollutants in structured two-region soils. Mass fraction index models, based on a semi-infinite domain solution, are derived that describe leaching at depth, vapor losses through soil surface, absorption, and degradation in the dynamic- and stagnant-water soil regions. The models predict that leaching is the result of the combined effect of the upward vapor-phase transport relative to downward advection, residence time relative to half-life, dispersion, and lateral diffusive mass transfer. Simulations show that leached fraction of volatile compounds does not always decrease monotonically with increased residence time relative to the pollutant half-life, as a result of complex interactions among the different physical and biochemical processes. The results show that leaching, volatilization, and degradation losses can be affected significantly by lateral diffusive mass transfer into immobile-water regions and advection relative to dispersion (i.e. Peclet number) in the mobile-water regions. It is shown that solute diffusion into the immobile phase and subsequent biochemical decay reduces leaching and vapor losses through soil surface. Potential use of the modified leaching index for the screening of selected pesticides is illustrated for different soil textures and infiltration rates. The analysis may be useful to the management of pesticides and the design of landfills.     

青藏高原大气—植被相互作用的模拟试验Ⅱ.植被叶面积指数和净初级生产力

利用大气－植被相互作用模式AVIM对青藏高原上30个站点进行模拟计算，给出了青藏高原上植被叶面积指数和净初级生产力的分布特征。模拟结果表明，高原上叶面积指数、净初级生产力由东南向西北减少，模拟和观测的分布相一致。分析指出，青藏高原净初级生产力的分布决定于水热条件的共同作用，降水充沛、温度适宜的青藏高原东南部净初级生产力较高，而青藏高原西北部由于降水过少或温度过低，初级生产力很低。     

红壤丘陵区农业开发中的生态环境效应及其调控

文章以江西余江县为例。通过实验研究，历史资料对比分析及邻近参照等方法。研究红壤区农业开发中的生态环境效应。农业开发引起的微观环境效应在于改变土壤水分及其运动状况，加速土壤物质迁移及降低土壤肥力质量；区域性效应是植被减少，农业面源污染，水土流失扩大及气候异常；全球性影响除区域集聚效应外，则是农业活动中产生的温室气体对全球气候的影响等，采取的调控对策主要是：保持合理开发，适当减轻土地压力，优化农业开发模式，更新农业耕作技术。强化环境整治与生态建设。     

干旱区地下水脆弱性特征及评价方法探讨

干旱区地下水脆弱性是地下水系统本身固有的不稳定属性，是系统结构、功能状态在人类活动干扰及气候变化等自然因素作用下具有的敏感性、易变性和弹性的综合反映。可以以河川径流中冰雪融水比重、地表径流入渗占地下水补给比例、地下水补给强度、地表水的引用率等十项指标（IRRUDQELTS）进行定量评价。通过对塔里木盆地南缘地下水脆弱性评价，表明该区属地下水严重脆弱区，其中又以民丰县、皮山县为极端脆弱，结果与实际情况相符合，说明该评价指标体系具有一定的科学性。     

贵州省低纬山地气候变化趋势

对贵州气温、降水、灾害指数等要素的气候变化分析表明:20世纪40年代前后贵州处于一个相对温暖时期(这一时期也是北半球大陆气温自1930～1960年代初的明显暖期中),1960～1970年代是一个相对较冷时段,但趋势变化曲线反应出贵州气温呈下降趋势(与全球气候变暖趋势相反),主要表现在春季和夏季变冷明显,秋季和冬季略有变暖;贵州降水趋于减少,主要反应为春季减少较为明显,夏、秋季变化不大,冬季呈增加趋势;各种灾害指数的趋势变化中,春季的倒春寒、夏季的洪涝趋于偏重,秋季的绵雨、冬季的低温和凝冻趋于偏轻,而春旱、夏旱和秋风变化不明显,但春旱存在明显的周期性变化特征;旱涝指数的小波分析指出贵州旱涝有两个比较明显的全域性周期变化,分别是32a和10a周期。     

Fire Severity,Water Repellency Characteristics and Hydrogeomorphological Changes Following the Christmas 2001 Sydney Forest Fires

Soil water repellency can enhance overland flow and erosion and may be altered by fire. The Christmas 2001 bushfires near Sydney allowed investigation of the relationship between fire severity, water repellency and hydrogeomorphological changes. For two sub-catchments with differences in fire severities in Nattai National Park, south-west of Sydney, this paper considers: (1) the links between fire severity based on SPOT image analysis and ground observation of fire severity and repellency; (2) the textural and organic/minerogenic characteristics of eroded sediment; and (3) erodibility, erosion and deposition of soils in both catchments. Ground surveys show that image analysis reflects well the degree of vegetation consumption by fire, but cannot adequately predict the degree of ground litter consumption, associated soil heating and repellency effects. Fire had varying effects on repellency, leaving it unchanged, destroying it or enhancing it, depending on the soil temperature reached. The main post-fire hydrogeomorphological changes have been widespread erosion and colluvial and alluvial deposition of topsoil in foot-slope locations and river systems, but only localised redistribution of the highly erodible, repellent sandy subsurface layer. The fire did not trigger major geomorphological change in the study area, but fires probably cause important topsoil and nutrient depletion and may also affect water quality.